Thi post relates to the 2012 Masters, for the 2014 event, follow this link.
Good evening from the Major who simply introduces the work of friend and golf tipster, the Hearty Ploughman who has prepared his thoughts on the US Masters for you……
His approach is absolutely trends based; his selections will not feature in the Majors own bet records.
US Masters Tips
Right then, Hearty Ploughman here with his thoughts on the US Masters starting on Thursday.
Normal Major rules apply with the advice that follows, its free, barely profitable (if we’re lucky) and most definitely unhinged.
Ok, so lets get into the detail. Analysing the masters winners since 1990 has thrown up a few trends and has enabled us to narrow down the field to find the winner.
The first trend actually applies to all of the masters and the fact that no winner has ever come from Australia or Asia, so its bye bye to a number of players, including those high ranking Aussies Adam Scott and Jason Day.
To cut the field down to a manageable number there have only been 2 winners in the last 22 events that did not finish in the top 35 at the previous years masters, they were Woods when he won in 1997 (did not make cut in 1996) and Immelman in 2008 (finished 55 in 2007). The world ranking of the winner at the first week in April prior to the masters is 35 or better. Again there have only been 2 winners in the last 22 who don’t meet this Cabrera in 2009 (ranked 69) and Zach Johnson in 2007 (ranked 56).
There are only 2 winners who weren’t aged between 26 and 41 and both of these were ranked in the world’s top 15 at the beginning of April. Therefore goodbye to the old and the young, unless they are in the top 15 and that avoids us having to cross off two very big names in McIlroy and Mickleson.
Those trends alone have now left us with a field of 11 and the strike rate on the trend is 18 out of 22 which is pretty good. The one worrying fact is that 3 of the times the trend doesn’t work is between 2007 – 09. Is this a blip in the 22 year trends or are the trends changing?
The players we have left, with current betfair odds are:
Schwartzel @ 48
Donald @ 18.5
Woods @ 5.9
Van Pelt @ 130
Rose @ 34
Westwood @ 20
Mickelson @ 13
McIlroy @ 6.8
Laird @ 190
Kuchar @ 80
Quiros @ 190
There is one further trend to narrow things down a bit further and that still works for 14 out of the last 22 tournaments. This is the winner has previously had a top 10 finish at the masters. If you use this you can rule out the last 4 in the list above.
So who do we choose out of the list, well go with who you fancy and bet what you can afford to lose but is still large enough to give the heart a flutter and have you screaming ‘Get in the hole’ late on Easter Sunday.
Personally I’m going to stay away from Woods and McIlroy as don’t think there is enough value in their current odds with such a big field. Can’t see Laird or Quiros going all the way, although at 190 there is definitely each way value. I think my 5 picks will be Schwartzel, Donald, Van Pelt, Rose and Westwood, 3 Brits a Yank and a South African.
With the Bank holiday on the Monday I hope you enjoy celebrating and spending your winnings.
The Hearty Ploughman
Disclaimer – the majority of the analysis was done late on Saturday night whilst watching big Denzel destroy most of Mexico City in Man on Fire. If anyone spots any errors please reply to the post.