5.30 Punchestown Champion Hurdle
Ahh a touch of romance in the air for me… Punjabi was the biggest win of my punting career when he went in at Cheltenham to be the 2009 Champion Hurdler.
I had fancied him since his third the previous year was followed up by some decent flat wins and a WBX million path to Cheltenham. I strengthened my ante-post bets when he went in the first leg. At this point he was trading at his shortest but still 16s. After falling while battling at Kempton in the second leg, his price drifted again and I had the luck of matching at prices from 18 to 42. The champion hurdle bought out the best in him and my heart was in my mouth as I saw him battle on up the hill just holding off Celestial Halo and Binocular… fantastic story and my most successful and first four figure win.
He reappears to defend the Punchestown Champion Hurdle and should I do anything but back him… let’s see.
|
106% |
338% |
|
Win |
Place |
2.88 |
1.35 |
|
4.5 |
1.55 |
|
4.2 |
1.51 |
|
9.8 |
2.1 |
|
29 |
3.75 |
|
18.5 |
4 |
|
42 |
6 |
|
85 |
10.5 |
|
130 |
12 |
Let’s see who I am putting lines through… Ebayzian – His third last year reads OK but subsequent poor displays… Returning to its best would not be good enough.
Muirheads fifth in the Champion Hurdle is as good as it has run since its last wins in 2007. While it will enjoy conditions, it is not good enough in my view to win, place opportunity.
Last year’s win for Punjabi was against the grain a little bit. This race normally goes to an Irish trained 7 or 8 year old so the 5 year old Henderson raider was a touch against trends.
This year some very new promising 5 year olds turn up in Solwhit and Quevega.
The mare Quevega won well at Cheltenham in the Mares Hurdle and goes off favourite here. The price shortened after the Mullins / Walsh double on Thursday. The 14 length defeat dished out to United at Cheltenham looked strong. 7 wins from 12 starts 3 from 3 for Ruby goes on every surface it seems…. strong chances with a useful 5lb mare allowance.
Solwhits form was franked strongly again by fiveforthree who was half a length behind him at Aintree. A winner on his sole Punchestown run, we will find out how good this 5 year old is and whether he is a champion hurdle prospect.
Brave Inca was assessed correctly as unlikely to show a blaze of glory yesterday and his old rival Hardy Eustace turns up in this. This season has easily been the 12 year olds worst, unlikely the old warrior has the legs for this.
Punjabi needs regular racing and the 7/8 weeks since Cheltenham may be a bit of a break for him. Ground holds no fear and if you want one to fight out a finish then this is your horse. However, Punjabi does not look like a superstar winner of the Champion despite holding the Irish crown already. He is a class horse but I wonder whether a fresher lightly raced improver might be the downfall.
Jered’s earlier career form was very strong but recently he has been put in his place by this level of opposition. As a novice he won a grade one at Punchestown but seems to have lost his way. Difficult to see a return to form, even with the champion jockey up top, too much water under the bridge.
Won in the Dark has been an up and down horse and perhaps does not deserve to be the complete outsider. Some decent form including a Punchestown grade one and a decent show, probably the horses best, against Sublimity in December(who Punjabi only just beat at the start of the year) – It goes very well with the services of this jockey and the main concern would be the cut in the ground – Not without a place hope.
Sizing Europe was my idea of the Champion hurdle winner in 2008 but disappointed me and many others on the day. The two subsequent runs this year have been shockers given what went before. Maybe chasing will bring back hopes of the big team for this horse but this is a horse who has handed out good beatings to Osana and Big Zeb in the past – won’t mind the ground. Can you ignore two horror runs and find a reason for it to return to former glory…
This is a really interesting race to decipher. On trends you would ignore the head of the field and look for a return to form of Sizing Europe, I cannot have Brave Inca, Jered, Ebayzian or Muirhead (13/2).
Won in the Dark would be a great price but the ground goes against and with another dose of water expected overnight there will be no easing.
Then there are the two up and coming stars versus the current champ. This is tough. Quevega gets a mares allowance and the Mullins / Walsh team are read hot and she is lightly raced on the ground the 5lbs allowance will be useful… mmm. Solwhit could be anything, we know he is good but how good was the defeat of fiveforthree? Well we have to start decision making and so on the grounds that the form line through United and the fact that the Aintree race was probably on the sharp side for fiveforthree, ruled out.
Then it is a call between Punjabi and Quevega…… difficult. Why do I still feel negative about Punjabi? Like many I don’t think he is the best champion hurdler but what else does this horse have to do to prove itself? Maybe because it doesn’t look a superstar being a bit pint sized and those white socks but it is an all heart horse and shows the qualities of Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca… still I feel it might not be its day maybe because and this is thin, I can’t see much pace and I think Punjabi needs that, I think he is best in the heat of tough battle cracking others rather than in a tactical affair (Having said that this horse probably has the best flat form on offer too so turn of foot maybe not the issue)
On balance the form team have a hot prospect that gets a useful 5lbs and is lightly raced. Quevega is good enough for me. Saddled with the weight of my cash, I would still cheer Punjabi till hoarse if he were able to repel showing the value of determination.
Advice: Quevega £20 win. Good luck Punjabi. What a puzzle.