Daily Archives: May 4, 2009

6.50 Exeter – Desert Orchid Hurdle Chase

This race is the type I like looking into. Current Market:

  128% 606%
So Now 8.6 2.2
Georgian King 7.6 1.92
Laustra Bad 8.4 2.08
Macmar 7.4 1.87
Lordsbridge 11 2.78
Sheshali 14 2.82
Or Sing About 14 2.68
Raslan 11 2.1
Shenanigan 10 2.66
Mister Gloss 17 2.44
Barneys Mate 10.5 2.48
Boomerang 23 4.3
Dr Hart 18.5 4.3
Mylo 27 2.98
Bengal Bullet 30 3.3
Mossville 30 4.1

The market is not mature yet and so better prices will be sought than currently on offer about 25% better than shown above.

Exeter is a testing track and although the good ground will help, it suits horses with stamina and so course experience can help. This race has a few improvers and a couple capable of returning to the company to run a better race than recent efforts against better opposition.

Lets work our way up through the horses from the longshots and assess chances:

Mossville has been hammered out of site is recent races but has been stepped up to a class he simply cannot handle. Back in class 3 company is better and only a pound higher than his last win. At eight, should retain ability, interesting at the price.

Bengal Bullet runs well at Exeter (2 wins, 3 places and one unplaced). His two recent runs against similar opposition have been poor though and excuses need to be found, although his last run was the first after a break. The distance should suit and if the last run has blown some cobwebs away then claims to outrun the price.

Mylo has a ten pound claimer in the saddle and whilst from a top trainer and showing form two years ago that could entitle a good run, it seems unlikely it will happen. More likely the claimer is aboard for experience and the horse is not going about to bounce back to form… ruled out.

Dr Hart is tried in a first time visor and has the assistance of 5lb claimer Mclernon who is a promising prospect in the saddle. Again though, it is hard to get beyond recent negative performances and this would be a bigger surprise if finishing in the first half of the field. Remote.

Boomerangs sole run was in December 07, in slightly better company but subsequent efforts haven’t suggested a return to that form is imminent. Perhaps he would be good enough to feature prominently on his place efforts last season but not one for trust.

Barneys Mate is an interesting prospect and one that is hard to judge. There is plenty to admire about the way the horse races. Despite significant rises in the weights BM has plugged on gamely to place in two recent contests. Clearly he gets on with Miss Green whose record on him is 1112P2. Now returning from a break, fitness is taken on trust. Whilst his wins have been at suitable distances and on similar ground, they have been on much flatter tracks. Lots of unknown quantities.. left alone but dangerous.

Mister Gloss was last seen a distant loser behind Made in Japan at the Cheltenham festival. Returned to more suitable company may suit the horse who last won just four starts ago, his last run in C3 or less company. The manner of those defeats probably hasn’t done much for the confidence, though it is worth noting that the horse has won on the last two visits to Exeter. Tom O’Brien is 2 from 4 on the horse, spring is also a good time to catch him… of interest

Shenanigan has a 60% strike rate of getting in the frame, always a positive. One of the less exposed horses, improvement is not impossible. The jockey is 1/1 and a superb 3lb claim but excuses needed for below par Bangor run last time out.. interesting

Raslan ran a decent 2nd to Macmar at this track just 3 weeks ago. Whilst well beaten on the day, he has a virtual stone swing in the weights and so could reverse form. This horse has certainly been hit and miss and is no certainty to put his best foot forward again… unreliable

Or Sing About looks to have got on the wrong side of the handicapper. His chase mark and hurdle mark seem to have him held. Reliable but probably not good enough.

Sheshalis run at Cheltenham last November puts him in the form frame for this but the break and step up in distance are a concern. Market support would be the only thing to persuade me to bet.

Lordsbridge also ran in that Cheltenham race and featured ahead of Sheshali. He has more recent experience and it is not that strong but he meets Sheshali on better terms – stables poor form a negative. Possible place, pushing it to see it as the winner.

Macmar has been heavily raced and gets on well with his 5lb claimer Burke. If he turns up in similar style, the rise may not stop him from going in again but at some point the horses schedule has to catch up with him – Plus a major concern is the stable seems hard pushed to find a winner, I might be wrong (I often am) but I choose to rule out

Laustra Bad has not won in two years but is returning back to company it is more likely to succeed against. Not sure to appreciate the step up.

Georgian Kings 9l defeat to Made in Japan was pretty decent form in this context and with 8 frame finishes from 12 runs, you cannot knock his attitude or consistency. Fast ground is a plus. A winner on the sole Exeter run. His other wins have also been on right handed tracks. A good ground horse – Of significant interest with Choc Thornton aboard

So Now stepped up with a recent Bangor defeat of Yeoman Spirit. Shortlisted by many, I am less certain of the form and look at other options.

Majors Possible winners – Georgian King, Shenanigan, Mister Gloss, Barneys Mate, Mossville (ruled out Macmar nervously)

Majors Place Claims (4 paid on Betfair)- Lordsbridge, Bengal Bullet

Advice: Back £3 win all win bets (not including Macmar) at SP and £5 place all win and place bets at SP.

Sorry Sunday! Bank Holiday Selections

What a shame Rainbow View could not confirm her promise, I was very surprised that she seemed to misfire but all did not look well from a couple of furlongs out.  Ghanaati the winner was quickly cut for the Oaks but I am not sure she will win it and so the 5/2 looks skinny to me.  The fact that the winner had never raced on turf and was last seen winning a pretty average AW race shows just how open the guineas classics can be.  Next year, if I read this before selecting, I will go easy on ‘hot’ favourites.

I am avoiding a good card at the Curragh today – I feel a bit burned by the type of 3yo flat racing they have today and so have plumbed for two races, one Warwick, one Kempton.

Firtsly the 3.10 at Warwick.

I will keep the analysis a little bit briefer than usual as we have two races to cover.  This race is a 7f handicap for horses rated under 70 (pretty poor!).  However there is one in here I quite fancy.  The forecast odds are higher than the odds available today (sorry I didnt post last night!). 

Lindy Hop however went in the notebook after a recent performance at Pontefract.  On the surface a 9 and a half length defeat (6/11) wasn’t the best piece of form but it ran on notably to suggest it might lose its maiden tag soon.  Today it has the favourable draw and the benefit of a decent 5lb claimer.  Plenty of the horses in front on the Pontefract form have run well since… of interest.  Stellarini could also run well at the price.

Next and finally, the 4.30 at Kempton

There is a big price horse I like in this  

Firstly though, Fogotten Voice looks a good prospect to win, the course and distance success recently has seen him climb 8lbs in the weights.  This might not be enough to stop him but at 8/11, he is not an odds on shot in my view.  There is a forgotten horse I like in the line up and my interest lies there.

Pride of Nations, the relative veteran in the field, is making a seasonal debut at Kempton today and has an OK draw.  Jamie Spencer is an eye catching booking as while he doesnt have the strike rate for JW Hills, he isn’ta normal jockey selection for the stable.

The horse has ran poorly for a number of runs and it is hard to find excuses for it but that is partyl the reason for fancying it.  My view is that is has far enough down the weights that it may be a decent proposition.  Jamie Spencer is 2 wins and a second from 4 starts on the horse so safe to say he gets on well. 

A small punt will be added with The Snatcher as Hannon gave a glowing report this morning.  The draw isn’t favourable but the horse is reportedly much better for its spin behind Dubai Dynamo at the track recently.

FOOTBALL – As an aside, following the resounding success of the Wigan v Bolton debacle, a small flutter is advised on Hull (draw no bet) at 5.5.  While Hull seem to be in free fall but should be fighting for their lives.  Villa though have not won in the last nine themselves.  Hull have more to play for and have just seen relegation competitors Sunderland, Boro and Newcastle misfire – Brown will surely have them fired up. 

Advice:

Lindy Hop Warwick 3.10 Win £8 7s and Place £12 2.6 – Kempton 4.30 £4 32 and £6 5.4 Pride of Nation – Same Race The Snatcher place £5 4 and FOOTBALL £8 Hull (draw not bet) 5.5 – Lets hope for some bank holiday fun… good luck