This race is the type I like looking into. Current Market:
|Or Sing About||14||2.68|
The market is not mature yet and so better prices will be sought than currently on offer about 25% better than shown above.
Exeter is a testing track and although the good ground will help, it suits horses with stamina and so course experience can help. This race has a few improvers and a couple capable of returning to the company to run a better race than recent efforts against better opposition.
Lets work our way up through the horses from the longshots and assess chances:
Mossville has been hammered out of site is recent races but has been stepped up to a class he simply cannot handle. Back in class 3 company is better and only a pound higher than his last win. At eight, should retain ability, interesting at the price.
Bengal Bullet runs well at Exeter (2 wins, 3 places and one unplaced). His two recent runs against similar opposition have been poor though and excuses need to be found, although his last run was the first after a break. The distance should suit and if the last run has blown some cobwebs away then claims to outrun the price.
Mylo has a ten pound claimer in the saddle and whilst from a top trainer and showing form two years ago that could entitle a good run, it seems unlikely it will happen. More likely the claimer is aboard for experience and the horse is not going about to bounce back to form… ruled out.
Dr Hart is tried in a first time visor and has the assistance of 5lb claimer Mclernon who is a promising prospect in the saddle. Again though, it is hard to get beyond recent negative performances and this would be a bigger surprise if finishing in the first half of the field. Remote.
Boomerangs sole run was in December 07, in slightly better company but subsequent efforts haven’t suggested a return to that form is imminent. Perhaps he would be good enough to feature prominently on his place efforts last season but not one for trust.
Barneys Mate is an interesting prospect and one that is hard to judge. There is plenty to admire about the way the horse races. Despite significant rises in the weights BM has plugged on gamely to place in two recent contests. Clearly he gets on with Miss Green whose record on him is 1112P2. Now returning from a break, fitness is taken on trust. Whilst his wins have been at suitable distances and on similar ground, they have been on much flatter tracks. Lots of unknown quantities.. left alone but dangerous.
Mister Gloss was last seen a distant loser behind Made in Japan at the Cheltenham festival. Returned to more suitable company may suit the horse who last won just four starts ago, his last run in C3 or less company. The manner of those defeats probably hasn’t done much for the confidence, though it is worth noting that the horse has won on the last two visits to Exeter. Tom O’Brien is 2 from 4 on the horse, spring is also a good time to catch him… of interest
Shenanigan has a 60% strike rate of getting in the frame, always a positive. One of the less exposed horses, improvement is not impossible. The jockey is 1/1 and a superb 3lb claim but excuses needed for below par Bangor run last time out.. interesting
Raslan ran a decent 2nd to Macmar at this track just 3 weeks ago. Whilst well beaten on the day, he has a virtual stone swing in the weights and so could reverse form. This horse has certainly been hit and miss and is no certainty to put his best foot forward again… unreliable
Or Sing About looks to have got on the wrong side of the handicapper. His chase mark and hurdle mark seem to have him held. Reliable but probably not good enough.
Sheshalis run at Cheltenham last November puts him in the form frame for this but the break and step up in distance are a concern. Market support would be the only thing to persuade me to bet.
Lordsbridge also ran in that Cheltenham race and featured ahead of Sheshali. He has more recent experience and it is not that strong but he meets Sheshali on better terms – stables poor form a negative. Possible place, pushing it to see it as the winner.
Macmar has been heavily raced and gets on well with his 5lb claimer Burke. If he turns up in similar style, the rise may not stop him from going in again but at some point the horses schedule has to catch up with him – Plus a major concern is the stable seems hard pushed to find a winner, I might be wrong (I often am) but I choose to rule out
Laustra Bad has not won in two years but is returning back to company it is more likely to succeed against. Not sure to appreciate the step up.
Georgian Kings 9l defeat to Made in Japan was pretty decent form in this context and with 8 frame finishes from 12 runs, you cannot knock his attitude or consistency. Fast ground is a plus. A winner on the sole Exeter run. His other wins have also been on right handed tracks. A good ground horse – Of significant interest with Choc Thornton aboard
So Now stepped up with a recent Bangor defeat of Yeoman Spirit. Shortlisted by many, I am less certain of the form and look at other options.
Majors Possible winners – Georgian King, Shenanigan, Mister Gloss, Barneys Mate, Mossville (ruled out Macmar nervously)
Majors Place Claims (4 paid on Betfair)- Lordsbridge, Bengal Bullet
Advice: Back £3 win all win bets (not including Macmar) at SP and £5 place all win and place bets at SP.