Monthly Archives: July 2009

Wisemans Diamond! Surely.

With the racing at Goodwood looking top notch, why would you consider the 5pm at Redcar.

Well there is an interesting runner, WISEMANS DIAMOND.  Placed in his last 4 starts in claiming company, this is arguably a step up.  Although looking around the card, not much of one.

At 28s on Betfair, this is a poor but genuine horse and must represent decent value with a 5lb claimer, Paul Pickard (decent) up top.

Another of decent value is Jord.  What is curious is that despite the horses best form being on the all weather, new training connection are persisting with the horse on turf.  With the assistance of Frederick Tylicki and a 3lb claim from bottom of the weights, interesting stuff. 8/1.

Ades Wednesday Selection

Buddy Holly 7.10 Leics 250pts E/W 16Win 4.4Place

This leaves less than 1500 in Ades competition kitty – Oh Dear.

The big question here is whether they will go at Leicester.  The forecast is for a Noah like downpour and I am unsure as to whether they will handle it.

Christ I am Rubbish – C’mon Paco Boy

I did quite fancy Masterofthehorse yesterday and his performance was pretty much akin to mine in the month of July.  After a couple of winning months, this month I have fancied a series of losers.

The start of Glorious Goodwood could have signalled a change in fortunes but it was not to be.  At times like this, the disciplined take a break.  Not me!

It is Sussex Stakes day and another intriguing race.  The three main protaganists are Paco Boy, Rip Van Winkle and Ghanaati.  The market goes 17 bar and so it looks like it is between these three.  It is threatening to bucket down and this could be significant.  Especially as I liked forgotten voice at a massive price but the strong suspicion is that that one definitely likes the top of the ground.  Lord Shanakill and Lahaleeb are not as clueless as the prices suggest either.  However I think we shall focus on the top three.

RVW may not run due to a small setback but he has left Ireland for the course where a decision will be made.  I would expect him to run.  I do not think he has the form in the book of the others but he undoubtedly has some ability.  Coolmore think a lot of him.  He has not run on anything less than good and so the ground is a concern if the rain comes.  However, a mile is probably sharp for him and so perhaps the ground might help.  While Coolmores opinion of a horse carries huge weight, I am not sure.  7/4 is way too short for me.

Paco Boy is a fine horse and has won some good prizes.  I love the horse and maybe the mile is about right these days.  He boasts course form which is a benefit.  He has also won on soft and has won half of his stakes races, pretty impressive.

Ghaanati makes the race a real cracker.  The 1,000 guineas winner looked in commanding form at Ascot and looks well suited to a Goodwood mile.  The fillys allowance gives her an exceptional chance and she is surely the least exposed of these runners.  However the ground going soft could be a big factor and having never raced on it, it is uncertain how it will effect her.  She did look awesome at Ascot and if she gets the ground then a danger to all – She looked explosive last time out.

Given my poor form, what I say next is exceptionally dangerous!  I cannot see any way in which Rip Van Winkle beats Ghaanati today.  Too many questions about RVW for me.  Paco Boy is a qualiy horse and the sensible bet is 1.55 on him placing.  2 to 1 on to place is printing cash imo, but I don’t like tipping up odds on. 

Advice:

PACO BOY Win £20 4.5 Betfair 7/2 Ladbrookes, Blue Square, Betfred

ROI DE VITESSE – The G2 at 2.45pm has an interesting runner at 18s on BF – ROI DE VITESSE

Masterofthehorse – 5/1, Careful!!

What a dilemma!  My head hurts after considering the chances of Masterofthehorse in todays G3 1 and a half mile contest at Goodwood. 

The dilemma is this.  Here is a horse who has form in the book a clear stone ahead of anything the others have shown.  Yet it is vying for second favouritism, surely this is fantastic value and both guns should be loaded, primed and aimed?

Lets have a look at the evidence.  MOTH ran a superb third in the UK derby, a very respectable distance behind superhorse Sea the Stars (who the Major proudly tipped up for the 2,000 Guineas!).  STS has gone on to demonstrate he is the superb animal we thought he might be (although I foolishly abandoned him for the Derby!)  That derby third looked incredibly strong, even if they did quicken off an very slow early pace, is head and shoulders ahead of any form the rest of the field have.

You can also look favourably at the form from his Chester defeat by Golden Sword.  That day, Murtagh in my view had a very poor ride (It is no secret that hold up horses around Chester fare poorly!) and finished second to front running Golden Sword.   Look back at third and Debussy franks the run nicely.  Debussy won a Group 2 on Sunday in France beating some very nice types.  Maybe Murtagh rode at Chester to beat Debussy thinking it was enough?  Whatever way you look at it the formline boosts MOTHs chances when comparing to this company.  Phillip Robinson gets the ride.

So surely this horse would be a worthy favourite? 

Not so fast.  The horse subsequently ran about a stone below the Derby performance when turned out as 9/2 J2F for the Irish Derby.  4th was not a disgrace but 16 lengths was a big step backwards.

Then the horse is sold out of Aidan O’Briens camp into Miss D Mountain.  She has had 2 winners in the last 120 odd runners.  Simply put, if the horse was still with O’Brien, 5/1 might be 7/4.

He has looked a bit quirky at times and he may well be a handful but he has class even if he is a bit coltish. 

It would be a surprise to see Coolmore sell a potential class horse even if the new owner, Mr Hassan, paid through the nose for him.  The owner has several horses in the middle east  and maybe the plan is to take him to Dubai – All the same, it is suspect that Aidan let the horse go.  MOTH is not the only horse to leave Coolmore, Black Bear Island has also gone.

The opposition in todays race, Harbinger, has well over a stone to find with MOTH.  While the horse is well regarded and Sir Michael Stoute received a timely boost at the weekend from Conduit, it is a bloody big step up from class 4 racing, no matter how good connections think you are.  He does have all the right entries though and is a likely Ledger runner, possibly favourite if winning this.

Urban Poet, another leading fancy, won a class 5 at Hamilton (well) – How can this be vying for 2F with MOTH??

So, form in the book (with a huge well being question mark) versus reputations. 

I would not be surprised to see the 5/1 drift (although I took 6s on BF last night and 5/1 with Ladbrookes today and both have shortened).  The ‘well being’ question is key.  Surely though the new owners would not have parted with their cash if it was not well?  However, we don’t know how much cash was parted with.  Maybe the change of scene will do the horse well.

One last factor.  Why has Aidan got no runners himself?  It is not like he does not have a raft of classy middle distance 3yos he could throw in.  He had half the runners in the derby field!  Should we read much into that – Was it part of the deal?  Does he think MOTH will romp this? 

DECISION TIME

In my view, to quote Richard Baerlein on Shergar, now is time to bet like men.  The horse cannot have lost that much ability.  I can forgive a poorer run in the Irish Derby – I think this horse is completely worth the gamble at this price. 

I am not going to get bogged down in the agenda of wealthy arab buyers and why they have selected such a small unaccomplished yard to do their buying.  I am also not going to over concern myself with why Coolmore would sell a classic form horse.

Instead, I am going to look at the bare form, nothing in the field has posted anything like MOTHs running.  If they can step up, fair play, it is possible.  It is also possible that the horse is sick.

All considered though, if he hacks up, I won’t let it happen without my money down.

Other Notes

I also fancy JJ the Jet Plane to win the 3.25 stepped up to 7f.  K Shea is a superb jockey and it would be nice to see this star win.  In the same race, 55s on Express Wish??  It has course form and has won a G3, OK  you have to forgive this seasons poor runs but 55s seems big.

Advice: Masterofthehorse – £25 win 5/1, JJ the Jet Plane 3/1 £10 and a £10 double.  £4 Express Wish win 55s and £4 place 7.8

Shame my competition funds are wiped out!

Ade Wants Profit

With the July competition having been reduced to a one man state of affairs, the only interest now lies with Ade – Will he make profit.

Todays selection would help! 

Keep Dancing 7.45 Windsor.  8.6 on Betfair, Ade is having £500 to WIN.