Christ I am Rubbish – C’mon Paco Boy

I did quite fancy Masterofthehorse yesterday and his performance was pretty much akin to mine in the month of July.  After a couple of winning months, this month I have fancied a series of losers.

The start of Glorious Goodwood could have signalled a change in fortunes but it was not to be.  At times like this, the disciplined take a break.  Not me!

It is Sussex Stakes day and another intriguing race.  The three main protaganists are Paco Boy, Rip Van Winkle and Ghanaati.  The market goes 17 bar and so it looks like it is between these three.  It is threatening to bucket down and this could be significant.  Especially as I liked forgotten voice at a massive price but the strong suspicion is that that one definitely likes the top of the ground.  Lord Shanakill and Lahaleeb are not as clueless as the prices suggest either.  However I think we shall focus on the top three.

RVW may not run due to a small setback but he has left Ireland for the course where a decision will be made.  I would expect him to run.  I do not think he has the form in the book of the others but he undoubtedly has some ability.  Coolmore think a lot of him.  He has not run on anything less than good and so the ground is a concern if the rain comes.  However, a mile is probably sharp for him and so perhaps the ground might help.  While Coolmores opinion of a horse carries huge weight, I am not sure.  7/4 is way too short for me.

Paco Boy is a fine horse and has won some good prizes.  I love the horse and maybe the mile is about right these days.  He boasts course form which is a benefit.  He has also won on soft and has won half of his stakes races, pretty impressive.

Ghaanati makes the race a real cracker.  The 1,000 guineas winner looked in commanding form at Ascot and looks well suited to a Goodwood mile.  The fillys allowance gives her an exceptional chance and she is surely the least exposed of these runners.  However the ground going soft could be a big factor and having never raced on it, it is uncertain how it will effect her.  She did look awesome at Ascot and if she gets the ground then a danger to all – She looked explosive last time out.

Given my poor form, what I say next is exceptionally dangerous!  I cannot see any way in which Rip Van Winkle beats Ghaanati today.  Too many questions about RVW for me.  Paco Boy is a qualiy horse and the sensible bet is 1.55 on him placing.  2 to 1 on to place is printing cash imo, but I don’t like tipping up odds on. 

Advice:

PACO BOY Win £20 4.5 Betfair 7/2 Ladbrookes, Blue Square, Betfred

ROI DE VITESSE – The G2 at 2.45pm has an interesting runner at 18s on BF – ROI DE VITESSE

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