Warm greetings to another fine sporting weekend for the Majors faithful followers. Today we have the usual premier league tips, while in horseracing The Major has a Victor Chandler Chase 16/1 tip against Masterminded going for his third win of the season.
So far this week the Major has tipped two outstanding losers and a non runner. This uninspiring week followed last weekend which was almost a write off due to a shocking football run. However, last Sunday provided a 25/1 winner in Baycross, the Majors longest priced success of the year and this win did restore some parity.
Today followers, have faith.
Faith is indeed why we gathered here on this day, the gamblers sabbath, as men prepared to do battle. So the Major raises the clarion call again, you must restock your bank before we unleash the cannons once more. Relentlessly positive.
An anonymous writer in Deuteronomy wrote.. ‘Be strong and of a good courage, fear not, nor be afraid…for the Lord thy God, he it is that doth go with thee; he will not fail thee, nor forsake thee’
The Major teaches you in the same vain to bet like real men (and women – you know who you are!), ensure the stake demands your heart to flutter and skip a beat, reminding you of your very existence, feel your pulse again and realise that the world is not about Simon Cowell or fast food or Wetherspoons. Out there the meaning of existence resides in the simple pleasure of a guilty moment of regret over the risk you have taken in playing your hand, before the thrill of the contest itself. Bet with a stake that means victory delivers sweet feelings and a cash return you can actually do something with. If you are playing with a stake that will make absolutely no difference to your planned evenings entertainment, then what is the point? Something needs to ride on the outcome, you need to feel alive again.
The Saturday Service is here, it is your honourable duty to load the large cannon with the fine shot and then lead the charge. The Major is he that will go with you and will not fail you or forsake you*
Point of order, the data sheets which are on the top tabs hold all of the data year to date. You will notice a new tab called the betting summary. This simply takes the raw data and summarises the performance of the horseracing tips, football advices etc on a month by month basis. You will see that our profit from 48 bets is 14%, horseracing has been our strongest suit at 37% profit. The two naps have returned a trebling of stake. Pleasing but not enough.
Second point of order, the Major reminds followers of how to get the Saturday Service quickly. As soon as the Major posts, emails are sent to the subscriber list. To subscribe, use the tool in the left hand menu. If you prefer to get your notification by twitter, @tdl123 is the place to be.
To todays action. First the Victor Chandler Chase. Clive Smith and Paul Nicholls will be itching to win this after last weeks Kauto Star defeat in the King George. In Masterminded they have the best rated horse in training and it is too easy to forget that Masterminded is in his prime and not on the downgrade like his stablemate Kauto. After all Masterminded has already won several Grade 1’s, two champion chases and suffered a dip in form that had many writing him off – That’s quite a back story for a horse who has just turned eight.
He looks back to his impervious best this season with two solid victories. What impressed me in both wins this season was the flamboyance. Is there a better chaser at standing off a fence before clearing it in soaring style by a foot, not touching a twig then landing like a ballerina moving away on the bridle; with horses trainling in his wake, their pschological well-being and ability to compete destroyed. Masterminded does look to have found his love of racing again this season which is great news, unless you are competing with him.
Some people have Masterminded as the unquestionable two mile champ which, if you are in this camp, makes the 15/8 about Champion Chase success this year an absolute must bet. The Major thinks though that outstanding as he is, he also has an outstanding competitor in Big Zeb. It is going to be a cracker in March but we must play todays hand and await that race with huge anticipation. (The Major has already advised his ante post Cheltenham tips)
Todays Victor Chandler is a penalty kick for Masterminded, in the Majors opinion. There is nothing wrong with Petit Robin, Somersby and Mad Max but they are up against a quality animal. If Masterminded turns up in decent heart, there is nothing to suggest he will not, he will win. 8/11 does not quite reflect this and so the Major would encourage anyone to take William Hill on at that price. Not an advised bet though, the Major seeks the value bet.
The horse the Major really likes and the only one that allows a chink of doubt about a Masterminded win is Crack Away Jack. This horse was incredibly unlucky not to win the Champion Hurdle in 2009. Watch the race again and you will see he loses 15 lengths at the start, which is a lot of ground to give to top class animals in a 2 mile hurdle! He finished that day like a train up the hill finishing a 3 length (ish) 4th. Having suffered injuries since then, it is hard to make what remains of his undoubted talent.
The horse has won fresh before though and at 16/1 with Bet365 who go 3 places and quarter odds (best price too), it is worth a speculative one. The speculation is not about whether I think Crack Away Jack is capable of running a place or picking up the race if Masterminded is not in top form, it is more about his readiness and in that his trainer, the wonderful Emma Lavelle is buoyant ‘He is in really good order…… He has always run well fresh. He looks straightforward, seems well and is at a good weight’
Of the others, Petit Robin looks like he wants further to me and is not in the top draw. Mad Max looks a hard sort to place. Tchio Polos at the bottom of the card for Paul Nicholls might improve but looks nowhere near good enough on anything shown so far.
The 2.55 at Ascot offers a similar bet to Crack Away Jack. Walkon is an Alan King (who has had a quiet season) trained hurdler who has been missing injured for over a year and a half. However, returning in this grade 2 shows some confidence in the horse and his well-being.
Walkons second in the Triumph hurdle was good form finishing second to Zaynar at his best with Starluck back in 4th.
A complete unknown in this is Sire Collonges who races off a featherweight. Another french import for the Nicholls stable – Who knows what this one is about, impossible to tell but taken as too green for this quality race particularly as Lough Derg will ensure a ready pace and will expose jumping inexperience.
Soldatino is the 5/2 favourite but really, this Triumph winner while good, 5/2?!? OK, it could win but really I am unsure its form of winning last years Triumph is as good as the form of the second Walkon achieved in the previous year. This then leaves the 12/1 Walkon as a standout bet – Get stuck in, have an each way chunk and thank me later. Generally available at quarter odds and three places.
As long as Ascot races, the ground will be perfect. Gowran however is off as is Haydock which is a shame as the Major had done work on both!
Detail and research. 2pm Lingfield, not the natural start point for horseracing fans. One thing of interest. Pizzetti is 40/1 with Victor Chandler – Now OK, this looks like a plot horse for handicaps and from the Prescott stable, it is probably waiting for them but…. out of Singspiel it is arguably the best bred horse in the race and….. it has a Derby entry, so they must have had hopes at some point. It is probably a handicap plotted sort but at 40/1 the Major is willing to stake an each way piece of silver.
Ascots 3.30 shold go to Breedsbreeze 15/8 (Sportingbet) – All of the others have big question marks, the preferences of the field would be Minella Theatre who needs to prove he is not simply at first time up specialist and I’m a Legend who looks well handicapped to the Major. the tip is for Breedsbreeze though who has he form in the book, looks relatively well placed at 9 and the credible Ian Popham helps by taking a further 5lbs off.
Then to the sporting fields of Britain which suffer less from the wicked touch of the barren North and her icy fingers.
Wolves are no forlorn hope to beat Liverpool who have proved for a second time that changing your manager does not improve a mixed squad. Wolves are organised and at 12/5 with Stan James, of some interest but no bet advised.
I think Aston Villa while too good for the drop have problems that Darren Bent alone cannot solve. It is the live early evening game and backing Manchester City at 23/20 with William Hill is the advice.
The Major wants to keep Fulham on the ‘poor list’ – Thus backing Stoke at Craven Cottage makes sense at 14/5 with Victor Chandler. Stoke may have had mid-week exertions at Cardiff but they were able and confident enough to rest key players. John Carew may not be an inspirational signing but he can lead a line and will be another player bought into consideration from Stokes long throws. Fulham continue to underwhelm the Major who thinks it is all presentation and no trousers. It is worth remembering that there is a bit of bad blood between these teams. Pulis and Hughes have twice this season refused to shake hands at the final whistle, if it tasty today, I don’t think that would suit Fulham.
Blackburn are a great price to beat the Majors own team, West Brom. This Sunday fixture features a home team who are well organised under the quiet Steve Kean. Albion can score goals but will struggle against the strong midfield of the Blackburn team. 5/4 with Victor Chandler is a decent price. West Brom are getting stronger with their defense returning, Tamas is a big player but they were poor at the back when fully staffed and so it might make them more competitive but hardly delivers maximum confidence.
Equally Tottenham look a quality bet at 5/4 to win in the North East. Andy Carroll is still missing and he is a key player for Newcastle. Pienaar could make a debut for Spurs who just look to have enough quality to take maximum points.
Sheffield Wednesday are spending some money and going through a transformation. 7/4 is too big for their chances to get the spoils from Orient today.
Sunderland look a tasty price too at 2/1. Blackpool are only 6 points off the black cats who rest just outside the Europa positions. I don’t think Sunderland will miss a beat with the loss of Bent. Gyan looks a more complete player to me. Blackpool are capable of scoring against most teams due to a refreshing attacking approach but they also concede.
The new Bournemouth manager has his hands full. The club had already sold key players before losing their young talented manager Howe to Burnley. While Bournemouth have a sterling home record, this could all change in the coming weeks and they have not entertained many of the top teams. Brighton are that and at 15/8 are incredible value. Take your deserved share.
The Major wishes all faithful followers the best of luck in your selections today. Watch out for tomorrows Irish Champion Hurdle advice where sadly Dunguib has already withdrawn.
The NAP today is a double on Blackburn and Masterminded. General pricing of 6/4 and 4/6 means this pays £375 to a £100 stake, I am sure you will bet with more significant funds!
This evenings dining will follow a nine mile run. The order of the day will be steak, shown the flame for the minimal period to make the chef feel he has earned his wage. A Barolo to accompany, a brandy to finish. Then to dark, peaceful slumber safe in the knowledge that no matter what happened today, no matter whether a fortune was plundered in the Majors favour or not; we sleep deeply with carnal knowledge of the joys the sporting gentleman’s world provides.
Play hard. Allow instinct as well as research.
As the man hails your carriage, tip well. This is right. Let him know the Major sent you, we will be back.
* Previous evidence demonstrates that the Major will quite regularly fail you!