The Major invited guests bloggers and here we have our first… this man believes he has an angle into the Cricket World Cup Top Scorers Market…. over to you le Grand Fromage, I hope you don’t mind the minor edits
Well, it’s not a grey Saturday morning in Pershore, the coffee isn’t bubbling and there isn’t a racing card in sight. However, it is a dark night in the Stroud valleys and so sitting down with a couple of bottles of fine Polish Tyskie lager its time to study the form and uncover some great value in finding the leading run scorer in the 2011 Cricket World Cup.
There is a huge number of potentials and so in order to narrow the field down from 14 teams, each with 6/7 batsmen, giving a field of 84-98 batsmen, I have eliminated those teams who aren’t going to go far in the competition.
Apart from the main outsiders I consider the strong candidate for the early exit to be Bangladesh, West Indies or New Zealand. The West Indies and New Zealand are capable of good performances but haven’t been consistent enough lately and I just can’t see any of their batsmen putting a string on innings together. Chris Gayle and Jesse Ryder are dangerous, but Gayle especially doesn’t have a good record in the sub continent.
We can also eliminate any of the batsmen outside the likely top 5 in their own team as they won’t get enough time at the crease in all of the matches to score big runs consistently.
By this logic, the winner will come from one of the following Sehwag (14/1), Gambhir (20/1), Tendulkar (16/1) (india), Watson (18/1), Ponting (22/1), Clarke (40/1) (Australia), Dilshan (25/1), Sangakkara (20/1), Jayawardene (20/1), Tharanga (33/1) (Sri Lanka), Amla (18/1), Smith (33/1), Kallis (18/1), De Villiers (40/1) (S.Africa), Strauss (33/1), Trott (28/1), Pietersen (28/1) (England).
You will notice there are no Pakistani batsmen mentioned. I have always been a big fan of Mohammad Yousuf and Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-haq. However, consistency and betting aren’t words that go well with Pakistan cricket team so I’m going to leave well alone.
Of my fancied chances, unfortunately I can’t see England doing well. They only have a short break back in England after the one day series in Australia before going out to the World Cup. I can already see the headlines, not enough time to prepare, too much cricket resulting in too many injured players etc. Not for Le Grand Fromage…
So who is left, well in all honesty, quite a few lively chances. We have to get serious though and so it boils down to……
Tendulkar is hard to ignore as it will be his world cup swan song, in front of his loyal vocal fans, only 3 centuries short of 100 first class hundreds – you just think it has to be. For those of you who prefer to trust form, he has already been leading run scorer twice before in 1996 and 2003 so surely 2011 will be his year….. 16/1.
I’m also attracted to an each way bet on Michael Clarke. Away from all the pressures and hostilities he has faced in Australia he may well put in some excellent performances and he is one of the best players of spin going, available at 40/1 with Victor Chandler.
I hope your first guest post from Le Grand Fromage helps to fill your coffers and empty those bookies satchels.
I’ll be back with tips on the leading wicket taker in the next few days.