Daily Archives: February 10, 2011

Friday Kempton Tip – 3.10 Pere Blanc – Handicap Plot??

Two markets are open on the 3.10 at Kempton and the Major feels a small slice is needed on Pere Blanc at 5/1 with Victor Chandler.

This race will not take a lot of winning and looking at the line up, there seems to be a theme of consistently underperforming sorts.  With eighteen runners it is telling that only one has gotten within 10 lengths of a winner last time out. 

I think we are looking for the horse laid out for the handicap and the obvious candidate to the Major is Pere Blanc.

The evidence is as follows…….

Trained by the Arthbutnot stable, out of Kings Theatre

The first time that Pere Blanc returns to Kempton since it won a bumper here back in March 2010 when Daryl Jacob took the ride.  That day, Status Symbol finished second who went on to compete on the all-weather at first with average results but going on to place in a Class 1 earning a mark of 95….. 29 lengths of fresh air was in third behind Pere Blanc in what remains its only win.

In two previous bumpers it finished within 20 lengths of firstly Oscar Whisky (now 12/1 for the Champion Hurdle) and the Rock on Ruby, also setting a good standard.

Following the bumper win, in three novice hurdles, Pere Blanc has finished a cumulative 142 lengths off the lead.  In the first it was held up and stayed on, the second and third it was always in rear.

Suspiciously this is the first time it qualifies for a handicap mark.

The horse would probably have a fair forecast SP of 8/1 in the Majors view (based on the three novice hurdle runs) but in both markets open, it has been shortened already to dispute favouritism at 5/1.

It gets into this awful standard race handicapping off a lowly mark of 95.  Interesting that Timmy Murphy is dropped and Daryl Jacob is back in the saddle. 

The Major suggests you take a slice of the fun and thank me later.

Cricket World Cup Post 2 – Tips for Leading Wicket Taker

Le Grand Fromage is back for a second post, this time proffering a view on the leading wicket taker market in the Cricket World Cup.Good evening fellow followers of the Major. 

Le Grand Fromage is back for a second delve into the 2011 cricket world cup, this time examining the leading wicket taker market.

Right, lots to get through so let’s delve straight in.  As with the leading batsmen, the leading bowler has got to come from a team that is likely to go far in the tournament.  This is obvious and crucial.

They have also got to be a leading bowler in the team, equally important and not rocket science. 

They also need to stand up to playing in 9 one day games in 6 weeks in a festival of cricket.   Although that may not seem like much, and Fred Trueman would certainly argue otherwise, we only have to look at the number of injuries on both sides in the latest one day tournament between England and Australia to know that injuries are likely, especially to the fragile Australian pair of Brett Lee and Shaun Tait.

The last couple of world cups tell us the leading bowler is going to need to take around 2.5 wickets per game, so a return of about 22/23 wickets should do it. 

One important factor here is the difference between groups A and B.  There are 3 weak teams in group A, whilst only 2 in group B (Bangladesh can’t be considered a weak batting side anymore, especially at home in the sub continent) and so I fancy the leading wicket taker is likely to come from group A. 

In 2003 Chaminda Vaas was the leading wicket taker with 23 wickets, 12 of those in just 3 group games against Bangladesh, Kenya and Canada.

So who are the strong teams in group A, Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.  In my previous post I have already said I don’t fancy New Zealand to go far past the quarter finals and betting on Pakistan is not something I am that keen on, even though I do think their bowling is stronger and more consistent than their batting.

So from Sri Lanka the leading bowlers are likely to be Malinga, Muralitharan and Mendis and from Australia we have Lee, Tait and Johnson.  As mentioned earlier I think it will be too risky to back Lee and Tait due to the likelihood of injuries therefore I think Mitchell Johnson available at 33’s is a strong each way bet.   

From Sri Lanka I’m going to plump for Malinga who is favourite along with Dale Steyn of South Africa, available at 14/1 with a number of bookies.  His in-swinging yorkers and slower balls at the death are deadly, especially if sides have not been able to take many chances, and therefore hopefully not lose too many wickets, against the spin of Muralitharn and Mendis during those middle overs.

So there we go folks, let’s hope we get a few winners and we’ll finish with the best song from the barmy army during the ashes;

He bowls to the left

He bowls to the right

That Mitchell Johnson, his bowling is s***e…..

Let’s hope he picks up some wickets with those dodgy half trackers and pays for a few bottles of your favourite tipple over the next month.