Friday Kempton Tip – 3.10 Pere Blanc – Handicap Plot??

Two markets are open on the 3.10 at Kempton and the Major feels a small slice is needed on Pere Blanc at 5/1 with Victor Chandler.

This race will not take a lot of winning and looking at the line up, there seems to be a theme of consistently underperforming sorts.  With eighteen runners it is telling that only one has gotten within 10 lengths of a winner last time out. 

I think we are looking for the horse laid out for the handicap and the obvious candidate to the Major is Pere Blanc.

The evidence is as follows…….

Trained by the Arthbutnot stable, out of Kings Theatre

The first time that Pere Blanc returns to Kempton since it won a bumper here back in March 2010 when Daryl Jacob took the ride.  That day, Status Symbol finished second who went on to compete on the all-weather at first with average results but going on to place in a Class 1 earning a mark of 95….. 29 lengths of fresh air was in third behind Pere Blanc in what remains its only win.

In two previous bumpers it finished within 20 lengths of firstly Oscar Whisky (now 12/1 for the Champion Hurdle) and the Rock on Ruby, also setting a good standard.

Following the bumper win, in three novice hurdles, Pere Blanc has finished a cumulative 142 lengths off the lead.  In the first it was held up and stayed on, the second and third it was always in rear.

Suspiciously this is the first time it qualifies for a handicap mark.

The horse would probably have a fair forecast SP of 8/1 in the Majors view (based on the three novice hurdle runs) but in both markets open, it has been shortened already to dispute favouritism at 5/1.

It gets into this awful standard race handicapping off a lowly mark of 95.  Interesting that Timmy Murphy is dropped and Daryl Jacob is back in the saddle. 

The Major suggests you take a slice of the fun and thank me later.

2 responses to “Friday Kempton Tip – 3.10 Pere Blanc – Handicap Plot??

  1. A slice I shall have then!

  2. good stuff, hope it was a thick one!

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