Two poor Saturdays on the trot for the Major who failed to find a winner on the Leopardstown card and had a dog when predicting the football results. Thankfully, Reindeer Dippin did the business at Ayr (advised 7/1) and reduced losses to just 20%.
Relentless positivity is the Majors mantra and so we return to business today looking for some bits of value.
The first bet I like today is Bolton to beat Everton at 2/1 (Victor Chandler). Everton are going to be missing two really key players in Saha and Rodwell and I fancy that they won’t relish the trip to Bolton with Beckford leading the line. Bolton are organised and pose a threat at set pieces – I would also recommend a bet on Sturridge as first goal scorer at 31/4 with Unibet.
Ireland v France in the six nations is a hard tipping game – Home advantage and Irelands ability to bounce back versus Irelands trouble to convince against Italy. Scotland hardly demonstrated they were a decent outfit when getting hammered by Wales yesterday suggesting there is not too much to take from the dominance of the FRench over the Scots. Overall I suspect that France who have been strong at the turnover which is Irelands apparent weakness have enough advantage to suggest they are worth a bet at -3 in the handicap with ether Ladbrokes or Victor Chandler.
On course, there is a tasty novice at Exeter (2.40) in which Henderson and Nicholls put up two fancied sorts. Currently Spirit Son (Henderson) is 4/7 and Cedre Bleu (Nicholls) is 5/2. Now based on what they have already achieved on track both in France and Britain, probably Spirit Son has the edge and he already features in the Supreme market and so is clearly fancied. Cedre Bleu has not done much wrong though and at the prices a win bet is advised. It is a tough one because I suspect Spirit Son has he edge, particularly as Geraghty takes the saddle up against Thomas for Cedre Bleu. Both stables are in fine nick, it is close enough to take a bet on Cedre but I would either go with Paddy Power or wait as I suspect the money will be a one way affair for the Henderson horse.
Having spent a bit of time on the 4.10 handicap chase at Exeter, I can see no wrong in backing two for this. Firstly, Or Bleu, while a danger is fully exposed and I suspect an upgrade sort (or sorts) to be too good for him today. The two that fit the bill are the Tizzards Insider Dealing and Dartnells Requin. The former has only been put up a pound for a second to Boomshakalaka at Taunton (with Squadron in behind). Squadron went off to win a Huntingdon class 3 off a mark a couple of pounds below Insider Dealing suggesting that Tizzards horse may well still be ahead of the handicapper.
The latter, Requin, races off a similar mark on the chase debut as previously on hurdles courses. The hurdles form was OK but just looking at the horse you have to suspect a lot more can come from the chasing career. Interesting too that it is thrown in at this reasonable level given it has never yet jumped a fence in public.
Ground is against Qulinton, Bertie May is racing off a good mark if the tongue tie does the trick, overall I think Insider Dealing and Requin are the bets. 4/1 and 9/2 respectively. Have a slice of the reverse forecast too if you are can and if you just want one then…….. its tough but…….. Requin 9/2.
The bumper at Exeter is a race I should best leave alone but seeing the Pipe trained Atlantic Pearl at 10/1 is just too tempting. This horse unlike many of the others has seen a racecourse already finishing down the field in a Warwick bumper. That form was shocking but so was the ground (bottomless) and given it went off that day under 2/1 on debut, one has to assume some stable confidence existed. These conditions will be easier and at tens with 4 firms, I propose a slice.
Pricewise stole my thunder on Royal de la Thinte who I suspect is the equal of Quito de la Roque (3.50 Navan) – So the 5/2 still available represents value, have a piece.
Two other graded races are on the Navan card, the Flyingbolt and the Boyne.
The Flyingbolt (2.20) market is dominated by Saludos and Torpichen. It is another that the Major thinks holds the value though, Lastoftheleaders. Torpichen has the potential class but the selection has been on the upgrade. Conceding best part of a stone to a useful chaser last time (Peak Dancer who went on to win again and now has a ten pound higher chase mark), course form is also in the book…. could be more to come. 11/2 with Victor Chandler, have a piece. SUNDAY NAP SELECTION.
Finally on the slip today will be a selection from the Ladbrokes Boyne Hurdle. Voler la Vedette certainly has the most form in the book and is a reliable yardstick whether you review the form against Quevega or Hurricane Fly. The question is whether anything can go past her. In my book she is tough, reliable and just short of top class.
The other contenders today though are even shorter though and so take the Vedette to win at 9/4 with Sportingbet.
Good luck with whatever you back on Sunday, watch out this week for some Chmpions League tips (although reviewing the Majors performance by discipline, you might not want to back those!)
Tragedy at Newbury and Leopardstown
There was a real bleakness about the manner of the death of two horses in the pre parade ring at Newbury yesterday. It looks to every intent as though electrocution was the cause. Some recent vertical drain works are likely to have disturbed an electric cable that had been forgotten about for some decades.
At Leopardstown, two more fatalities occured during racing for the Hennessy with Money Trix and Glencove Marina both losing their lives.
A dark day, I can imagine many race goers went home in a sombre mode.