Following the Major can seriously damage your wealth from time to time. The last few Saturday services have been loss making and we are down to a skimpy 4% profit for February.
West Ham winning on Monday night will restore a bit more respect to proceedings as we have them backed at 12/5 in a double with Stoke. Equally we were a little unlucky with Dibella tipped as an outlandish win bet at anything over 16/1 (SP 20/1) – Watching that race was a little frustrating, my take was that the jockey didn’t get Dibella into it, although the horse looked green. When the penny dropped it ran on well into third. I would definitely have it in the notebook. I hope some of you backed it each way, the Major advised it as a win bet (all results are published in the tabs above), thus a loss.
An equal dissapointment was the tipping of Riverside Theatre which the Major put up as the likely winner and suggested 7/4 was the value but was too nervous about Pride of Dulcotes potential and so it went down as a no bet. Terrible news about the fatal injury to Pride of Dulcote who fell at the mid way point.
We must drive on, sticking to the resolutions, we will find more value bets and get our profits back where they should be.
Herefords 3.20 is an interesting little novice and while noone has priced the market yet, I think there will be a value bet.
The weights for this novice make it interesting with only horses who have won less than 3 qualifying. There is a 7lb allowance for mares and fillies while 7lb penalties apply for each hurdle race won so far.
Listenlook is no doubt a decent point to point recruit for Twiston-Davies. It surprised on hurdle debut, when landing odds of 25/1 at Chepstow beating the well fancied and well backed Our Father in a decent contest. Upthemsteps was a fair way behind that day and taking a line of form on that ones former Taunton win, you have to take Listenlook as a decent sort.
There are only seven runners at the moment and more might drop out of the heavy conditions, I think we are looking for the winner.
Old Wigmore has an eye-catching jockey booking in Tony McCoy for Rebecca Curtis there is a 32% strike rate for that trainer, jockey combination over the last two years. The horse has great claims. The debut win at Hereford has been well supported with the placed horses following up in reasonable fashion. Second and Third that day Super Villain and Iron Chancellor are now rated in excess of 120.
The following race Old Wigmore contested at Cheltenham was even hotter. It finished a 15l 5th to Mossley,another of the unbelievably strong Henderson army! Reading the form of the horses who finished 2nd to 4th that day, 120 looks a super light reading of Old Wigmores ability. Mossley himself has been allocated 145.
Cocacobana is an interesting horse and surely one capable of winning a race like this. Whether tomorrow will be the day I do not know. It is the only other horse capable of winning this race in the Majors view. The second in the Hereford bumper a few weeks back to Mono Man (yet another absurdly promising Henderson horse!) reads very well. Mono Man already introduced to the Champion Bumper market at 20/1 was reduced further after beating Persian Snow on Saturday. I have to admit to being on (sorry it was not on the service, it was a last-minute decision) – I watched the Hereford bumper and have to say that although it beat not a lot, Mono Man looked visually stunning. It was not that it didn’t get off the bridle, it never looked like it might.
As an advert for Cocacabana it reads very nicely. When considered though, Cocacabana had a 10lb claimer aboard that day and has not yet faced a hurdle. No such claimer tomorrow, not easily dismissed but we are looking for the winner.
Simply Wings will be close to the head of the market but is one to be dismissed in the Majors view – It looks like we have seen its true ability already as a well established handicapper and I would be very surprised if anything other than a place was the outcome, even at the 2/1 forecast. This could be a bit dismissive as it is probably the horse in the race most suited by conditions.
So is it to be Listenlook or Old Wigmore….
I am settling on Old Wigmore. The ground is a slight concern but being by Old Vic whose progeny seem to go on most, I am not overly concerned. I like the jockey booking and think the form is the best on show. Rebecca Curtis has not had that many winners lately but the string she has seem to be running OK. She also has a good strike rate at Hereford. 7/2 on Betfair, will wait until midnight to see if an early market opens…… have a slice.
The 3.10 at Carlisle could go to the returning Bishops Heir, having reviewed the line up, this is the one who could be ahead of the handicapper. On its last outing at Kelso (a year ago) it looked tapped for toe before rallying and finishing well. I think the main thing against the horse that day was the ground. On ground reading soft / heavy the record reads 1115 (the 5 is a 30l defeat to Bygones of Brid in a Grade 2 contest) – When good appears in the going, the record is 434. It all comes down to readiness in the Majors view. James Ewart can prepare one, 13% strike rate with horses off course for more than 3 months. It might need the run but back it anyway, 13/2 currently (Victor Chandler), I would take that but I would also advise to wait and see if a better price can be garnered.