Good evening from the Major who has been through the Friday Galway and Goodwood cards and brings a guaranteed Friday winner, to give you a substantial war chest for your weekends projects whether the basis of your intention be simply further gambling or sheer debauchery.
The last two days have been spent on the road for the Major. First Kent and then Bournemouth. I stayed last night in Boscombe, a pleasant little spot. My hotel was called Urban Beach, a trendy surf sort of place (not one in which the Major seamlessly blends in)…
I must say, the people were good, the room well appointed (if not a bit hot), the atmosphere relaxed and most of all the dining superb. A beautiful fish dinner with excuisite flavour last night, this morning, the Majors favourite, eggs benedict, delightful – Bournemouth itself was busy with tourism but lively and nice enough.
I am just about over Frankels amazing Sussex victory although am looking forward to talking to Glenn, a colleague who was there on the downs for it, lucky man. I saw a tweet earlier (sorry to whoever it was!) it was a quote about the best ever horse to have raced** Secretariat, they said that when he ran, the trees swayed. Wow…. I think young Glenn knows the sentiment.
Goodwood – Richmond Stakes – Group 2
Racing in Canford Cliffs colours, Harbour Watch is the one that the dogs are barking about. He has won with ease…. strongly and readily are words that populate his race write ups. In a yard where he is amongst 2yo stars, he must be good to be odds on here. Can we get him beaten?
I believe we could, I have a 10/1 and a 14/1 pair that I fancy. The only thing I have against Harbour Watch is a lack of evidence that he deserves his price and a slightly lower level of stable form from Hannon than is ideal. OK, Hannon and Hughes had a nice 2yo winner today but he is sub 10% winners in the last fortnight.
The pair I fancy are the highly tried Bannock and the lightly tried Bogart. The latter is one of Ryans best apparently, the former has plenty of experience which can be useful in this race. That said on strict form lines with Saigon, Bannock might struggle. Casper Netscher is the horse we are judging a few of them through and in the end, despite likeable connections I am going to assume this form is short of top class.
This leaves me with my 14/1 selection in the Richmond, good luck to you Bogart, bring home the bacon. However, this is not my guaranteed winner*!
Galway Guiness Handicap
Galway is magical. Weld has won ELEVEN races this week so far, incredible. As the Major highlighted earlier in the week, he is the only trainer to follow.
Galway is a tough festival from a betting perspective. Some Galway races finish and you think why on earth was I not on that. This was true today in the Galway Hurdle. Some other races finish and even when the results are in front of my eyes I wonder if I am dreaming. Losing punters are left feeling like they could have done better. This is the result of so many complex trends and stories that so many winners look likely after the event.
Tomorrows handicap is tricky, potentially lucrative but insanely dangerous. It is akin to being blindfolded and at a Berlusconi Bunga Bunga party but knowing Susan Boyle*** is also a guest. Choose wisely and rich rewards await.
Dawariya is the class act in the tomorrows Guiness Hurdle. At 13/2, she just seems to be the obvious choice for the Major. On debut she was respectable. At Ballinrobe uncomfortable, but she is better than that, her handicap mark looked light when winning with something in hand at Leopardstown. She clearly has a bit more to give and who is to say that further opportunity is not there on her fourth start – Get stuck right it….
The Guaranteed Winner….. Thank me later
The Dee Hurdle at Bangor is one of the Welsh courses big races. On a day where eyes will be again at the two main festivals, Bangor holds a tidy handicap over an extended 2 miles, it has attracted 8 interesting runners.
There is a certainty here too for the Major.
The Major has a slight fear about the Jigsaw Man whose good to firm ground record is superb but it is not the winner. The winner… and I am shourting this…
is KNIGHT IN PURPLE available at 4/1 right now but I fully expect this to tighten up rapidly in the morning.
Knight in Purple is a hold up type and there is pace aplenty in this race…. Trust the Major, have I ever let you down?
*The Majors guarantees are about as solid as Lehmann Brothers
** This is guaranteed!
*** Mr Hadden, I accept she is probably your thing!