Monthly Archives: October 2011

Much better Sunday…… Kempton Monday Racing Tip

That was more like it….. Nephrite delivered the goods convincingly for the Major at 5/2 with Born to Sea, the hype horse not picking up as well although also reported lame afterwards.

The 10/1 selection Bonfire in the Criterium wins the award for unluckiest in running.  Completely buried, Jimmy Fortune had absolute handfuls of horse and nowhere to point it.  Bonfire got out too late but picked up third, that one is a serious horse for the future.

Mondays Kempton card holds a pertemps qualifier and a begginers chase both at class 2 level.

It is a shame that the beginners chase has been reduced to just three runners even if one is Somersby, a no bet scenario.

The 2.40 Pertemps Qualifier though has a must bet horse in Beyond.  Having moved from Evan Williams to Pipe, this classy looking novice hurdler last season will surely benefit from the step up in trip.  In receipt of bucket loads of weight and OK with good conditions, the early money has taken the fancy prices but I see that as a plus too.

Have a huge slice and thank me when it hoses up…..

 

Terrible Saturday – Sunday Best… Two Tips

A shocking Saturday and the Major could not sniff a winner out.  Time for Rupert came in second behind Weird Al who was impressive, second too for Coplan who ran into a hot one.

Sunday racing is the way forward, let us claw back some of those notes from the enemies grip.

Born to Sea, a half-brother to Sea the Stars runs in the Killavullen Stakes in Ireland.  As far as the Major is concerned, 4/6 is simply too short.  Hype over his half brothers achievements (Derby and Arc winner) is keeping it artificially short and so I would much rather dodge it.

John Oxx has confirmed my view that he is only vying for favouritism for the 1,000 guineas because of his star relative.  This is not a sound betting base.

Looking at what he achieved on his first run, he won when perhaps not expected to.  He showed a likeable spirit and Sea the Stars is not his only famous relative.  He is also a half-brother to Galileo.  Blue Blood indeed.

I am happier to be on Nephrite the O’Brien 5/2 second favourite who could not have won his maiden more impressively.  Seeming to find trouble, he had the gears and class to get out and win without having to engage the overdrive, strong win bet advised.

In France it is the Criterium at Saint-Cloud.  In this one I am going to stick with once raced Bonfire at 10/1. Andrew Balding does not go on fishing trips and I really think this one must be showing enough at home to warrant a good shot at such an illustrious group one as the Criterium.

Bonfire won his maiden well enough at Salisbury and it is a significant tick that this was also on soft ground.  He seemed to relish that and will get the same in France today.  Jimmy Fortune is great with these juveniles and I expect a big run…

5/2 and 10/1…. a £10 double returns £385…. Do not say you were not warned…

The Saturday Sermon – Tips for the Charlie Hall Chase, Wetherby, Ascot and The Premier League

Good morning from sunny Defford where the crisp morning brings gold-plated betting opportunities to whet the appetite and remind you of the sheer goodness of sporting challenge.

The beautiful Time for Rupert...... 7/2 shabash

The Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, a decent Ascot card, some nice Newmarket races and good football too.  Autumns abundant harvest.

The Major has an unholy interest in serial killers.  I have always been fascinated by their motive and process and among the legion of evil killers there are some fantastic tales.

My favourite would be Mr Holmes of the USA who killed dozens in a purpose built hotel designed to accommodate visitors to the Chicago Worlds Fair.  The building he created had sound proofed, air locked rooms that would suffocate guests and other rooms where gases could be flooded in to kill the occupants.  Secret chutes would dispatch bodies to the cellar where he would dissolve them / dissect them.

He also like to collect life insurance policies for his deceased.  He even persuaded his friend to partake in a ‘fake death’ insurance scam, only to actually murder him and collect anyway.

His hotel was an incredible building, sadly now demolished, it was labyrinthine.   Holmes employed multiple builders during construction so no one person apart from himself knew the true layout.  There were corridors leading nowhere, doors that opened onto walls and secret rooms with dark purpose.

Today, we shall attempt tot escape our own enemies maze of trickery.  We shall seek truth and light.  To do this we must discard that which is distraction and devilment.

To the sports…….

The Charlie Hall Chase – Wetherby

This is a cracking renewal of the Charlie Hall with top class Nacarat seeking a second win but facing in Diamond Harry and Time for Rupert, two genuine Gold Cup Hopes.

If this is the quality we can get used to for the Charlie Hall, I am sure it will be a grade one in years to come.

Diamond Harry has won all five of his seasonal reappearances and so you have to respect his record fresh.  I am not convinced that should be the predominant factor, I would want to select the class horse first.

Poquelin has probably got the best form in the race although I am not convinced about him stepping up to 3m.  That said, if he is going to get 3m, Wetherby is probably the place to do it.

the selection though is Time for Rupert.  He is a genuine stayer and with Nacarat in the race, there will be pace to aim at.  Like Nacarat, Time for Rupert will not be inconvenienced by the good ground and at 7/2, I think we will see some class today.

3.00 Ascot – Listed Hurdle

This is a tidy listed hurdle and two horses meet the criteria for the Major.

Via Galilei is the Pricewise horse so sadly the early silly prices have dried up.  Laddies are still 9/1 though and I think that still represents value.

The other I think may improve for another year of maturing is Third Intention.  Connections know where they will be with this horse and so it is interesting to see him entered at this decent level.  8/1 is fair enough.

Back both horses, win only.

1pm Newmarket – EBF Fillies Maiden

Winter is coming when racing kicks off at 1pm.  The Newmarket fillies maiden can go to Coplow.

Hannons exploits with juveniles need no selling and reading Richard Hughes note, you have to be confident that Coplow will turn a bitterly disappointing appearance last time out into a win today.

4/1 gives plenty of scope for a hefty wager, load the big cannon.

3.55 Newmarket

You have to fancy Tactfully the Godolphin horse to take this at 3/1.  Her impressive maiden win has been well and truly franked and this was a race that was taken last year by no less than Blue Bunting.

I think Al Zarooni is unleashing a good one here and 3/1 will look terrific value at 4pm.

To the other sports…….

Chelsea are the best 7/10 shots I have seen in a long time.  Beating some poor teams does not make a recovery and Arsenal have payed poorly in some of those wins.  Chelsea have better quality and home advantage and I have them 4/7 shots on my book, this is a steal and should underpin any mutiple selections.

Sunderland v Villa sounds like a low scoring game to the Major but I fancy Sunderland to edge it.  Villa were not great even with the full complement of players against West Brom and Sunderland were no better at Bolton.

That is all from the Major this week.  Make sure you put the horses in a lucky 15, it feels like the right thing to do….

Make sure dinner is relaxed and sumptuous.  Take the lively one you have been eyeing up….. As ever, tip well and allow generosity to be repaid times over….

Luck to you, shuffle up the cards.

The Saturday Sermon – Old Roan Aintree Tips – Racing Post Trophy Horseracing Tips

The Major bids you good morning from a wonderfully cold Defford where the biting air of winter is alike souls awakening.

Winter is gods chosen season and Old Roan Chase day is the sign that soon there will be no sign of a wasp, no hint of a sunburn and glorious long dark nights where a man may achieve a slumber of death and emerge blinking and reborn into the new day.

Aidan knows how good Camelot is, we get to see today at Donnie

National Hunt racing is back to take over the mantle from the flat.  The day is symbolic, we see Aintree and the Old Roan and we also see the potential derby horse in his last run of the season in the Racing Post Trophy.

What a nice move to name the Old Roan after Monet’s Garden the popular white chaser.  It is the highlight of an interesting card at Aintree.

As for the Racing Post Trophy.  Will the entirely unexposed O’Brien favourite , Camelot, triumph?  Very possible, but at 6/4 the Major is in the no camp, more of that shortly.

A lifetime of gambling on horses is a lifetime of education.  The accumulation of knowledge and the development of instinct.  Surely Peter in Chapter 1 which was written in amanuensis was referring to our lifetime battle with the enemy.

And to knowledge, self-control; and to self-control, perseverance; and to perseverance, godliness.  For if you possess these qualities in increasing measure, they will keep you from being ineffective and unproductive

So to knowledge and to the sports, let us strike mercilessly at the enemies dark soul and to victory, upright and vigorous.

The Monets Garden Old Roan Chase – Aintree

How disappointing that this such an old institution as the Roan Chase attracts just three runners.  Masterminded and Albertas Run are worthy of their places, Pure Faith is not.

How delighted the four owners must be at the defections from this Grade 2.  From a stone and a half out of the handicap, you would think Pure Faith would have to be lucky to finish third of three but the prizemoney for allocating this slot is still £5500.

As for the winner, the Major would think Masterminded over Albertas Run but at 1/2 and 15/8, it is hard to enthuse over the chances of either with both making seasonal reappearance and the uncertainties of pace in a three runner affair.

No bet for the Major.

The Racing Post Trophy – Doncaster

This is a much better betting medium and we have a few angles into the race.

O’Brien always takes this race as a serious route for his best colts and in Camelot we have an entirely unexposed sort.  Sent off to win his maiden in good style, he was catapulted to the head of the derby market which is incredible considering the level of form.

Yes, O’Brien has a great record in the race and I have no doubt that the market is effected by memory of St Nicholas Abbeys dramatic win a few years previous but 6/4 is no price up against horses with better form.

The colt that the Major prefers is Fencing, who missed the Dewhurst due to too firm conditions.  The last win is as good as anything on show with plenty of subsequent winners in behind.  3/1 is fair enough for the best form horse in the race – Have a slice.

4.35 Galway Novice Chase

I am loving this race as a betting medium.  The ground, the trip and the presence of two horses who will slit each others throats at the front equals a real opportunity.

I am happy to oppose both Foildubh and Regal D’Estruval who I think will not enjoy each others company tearing along at a proper pace.

The suspicion is that Ainama and Sweeps Hill will be seen to better effect over further but then again, the heavy ground will be an aid to both.

Westmeath has the services of Davy Russell suggesting it is a superior horse to Grey Soldier but Westmeath comes with the warning that his trainer does not think soft is ideal.  This is an odd statement given his track record is raced 4, won 2 and placed once on soft (never raced on worse) although it is worth noting the sire record of Kayf Tara offspring is shocking so maybe he has an OK record in spite of the ground and not because of it.

Sweeps Hill is probably the classier of all of these on what we have seen so far but again, ground doubts exist.

There you go, I have found a reason for all to lose so which reason at what odds am I willing to discard?

I have decided to select Foildubh at 8/1.  While he might like prominence, he is not always a tear them up sort and if comfortable sitting off the pace may be hard to pin back.

2.15 Newbury

There are two that appeal in this at opposite ends of the market.  The favourite Saigon has shown the best form and will be fine with firmer underfoot conditions and as a result, you should take a slice of the 7/2 he will win.  His Middle Park form is better than anything else and with Murtagh assisting (rare ride for yard), I fully expect a win.

The other I fancy is rank 50/1 outsider, Wise Selection.  He will also like conditions and while he has been a flop in the summer, the maiden he won had a very good look to it.  Maybe, they can find the key to this tricky individual and it is interesting he is thrown back into listed company.

To the sports…

Three football teams to follow in the premier league today.  Mr Hill will once again be furious as I suggest odds against priced Villa represent 13/10 value against West Brom.

Newcastle should see off Wigan and 8/13 for the Toon undefeated team looks good to me.

Finally, Bolton benefitted from the international break and I suspect their improvement to stick at home to a Sunderland team that the Major thinks is vulnerable.  They spent a lot of money badly and I think Bruce to go next in the Premier League should be considered too.

May dinner reflect the glories of the day.  May the company be both interesting and willing.  Tip well.  Enjoy the simplistic detail, the sound of the rain on the conservatory roof and the warmth of a good jacket in the bracing air.

Courage readers…… roll those dice.

 

Profitable if Unspectacular Saturday – One 25/1 Tip for Sunday Glory

What a fantastic day of sport Saturday delivered.  Frankel played his part, destroying the Ascot field.  The Welsh were heartbroken, that seemed predictable and the Premier League was at best average.

The Major made a slight profit having advised the wins of Balthazars Gift 6/1 and Clondaw Warrior.  The French won 11/8 and Snow Fairy placed at 8/1.  It will not make you rich but it turned a profit and the Major is going to specualte a bit of that on todays listed hurdle at Kempton.

A number of horses are making a debut over obstacles in this race and to be fair, Kempton is a great place to do it.  A galloping track with few undulations and fair.

The head of the market is peppered with winnable sorts.

Book Em Danno was considered.  He looks a hard ride at times but his wins have demonstrated a decent level of form, particulalry his defeat of Amtired which reads very well.  If he settles and is up for it, I would definitely consider him at 7/2.

Greylami will be fancied making his debut over hurdles with the champion jockey McCoy booked.  He must be showing well at home to earn an opening price of 4/1, not for the Major.

I like my debut hurdlers to come with a price that reflects the different sphere they are operating in.  4/1 gives you no room for that.  The Majors unraced hurdler at 25/1 is Pats Legacy.

What is to like?  Firstly he was a fair flat animal winning handicaps off marks in the mid eighties, that would put him in with a squeak.  I also like his good ground record which demonstrates that conditions have no adverse effect today.

Finally I like his front running style.  At Kempton with good ground, he might not be that easy to peg back.  Downsides are tough opposition and a stamina question but if there was one place to check his stamina out it would be here.

Have a slice and thank me later.