Good morning from sunny Defford where the crisp morning brings gold-plated betting opportunities to whet the appetite and remind you of the sheer goodness of sporting challenge.
The Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby, a decent Ascot card, some nice Newmarket races and good football too. Autumns abundant harvest.
The Major has an unholy interest in serial killers. I have always been fascinated by their motive and process and among the legion of evil killers there are some fantastic tales.
My favourite would be Mr Holmes of the USA who killed dozens in a purpose built hotel designed to accommodate visitors to the Chicago Worlds Fair. The building he created had sound proofed, air locked rooms that would suffocate guests and other rooms where gases could be flooded in to kill the occupants. Secret chutes would dispatch bodies to the cellar where he would dissolve them / dissect them.
He also like to collect life insurance policies for his deceased. He even persuaded his friend to partake in a ‘fake death’ insurance scam, only to actually murder him and collect anyway.
His hotel was an incredible building, sadly now demolished, it was labyrinthine. Holmes employed multiple builders during construction so no one person apart from himself knew the true layout. There were corridors leading nowhere, doors that opened onto walls and secret rooms with dark purpose.
Today, we shall attempt tot escape our own enemies maze of trickery. We shall seek truth and light. To do this we must discard that which is distraction and devilment.
To the sports…….
The Charlie Hall Chase – Wetherby
This is a cracking renewal of the Charlie Hall with top class Nacarat seeking a second win but facing in Diamond Harry and Time for Rupert, two genuine Gold Cup Hopes.
If this is the quality we can get used to for the Charlie Hall, I am sure it will be a grade one in years to come.
Diamond Harry has won all five of his seasonal reappearances and so you have to respect his record fresh. I am not convinced that should be the predominant factor, I would want to select the class horse first.
Poquelin has probably got the best form in the race although I am not convinced about him stepping up to 3m. That said, if he is going to get 3m, Wetherby is probably the place to do it.
the selection though is Time for Rupert. He is a genuine stayer and with Nacarat in the race, there will be pace to aim at. Like Nacarat, Time for Rupert will not be inconvenienced by the good ground and at 7/2, I think we will see some class today.
3.00 Ascot – Listed Hurdle
This is a tidy listed hurdle and two horses meet the criteria for the Major.
Via Galilei is the Pricewise horse so sadly the early silly prices have dried up. Laddies are still 9/1 though and I think that still represents value.
The other I think may improve for another year of maturing is Third Intention. Connections know where they will be with this horse and so it is interesting to see him entered at this decent level. 8/1 is fair enough.
Back both horses, win only.
1pm Newmarket – EBF Fillies Maiden
Winter is coming when racing kicks off at 1pm. The Newmarket fillies maiden can go to Coplow.
Hannons exploits with juveniles need no selling and reading Richard Hughes note, you have to be confident that Coplow will turn a bitterly disappointing appearance last time out into a win today.
4/1 gives plenty of scope for a hefty wager, load the big cannon.
You have to fancy Tactfully the Godolphin horse to take this at 3/1. Her impressive maiden win has been well and truly franked and this was a race that was taken last year by no less than Blue Bunting.
I think Al Zarooni is unleashing a good one here and 3/1 will look terrific value at 4pm.
To the other sports…….
Chelsea are the best 7/10 shots I have seen in a long time. Beating some poor teams does not make a recovery and Arsenal have payed poorly in some of those wins. Chelsea have better quality and home advantage and I have them 4/7 shots on my book, this is a steal and should underpin any mutiple selections.
Sunderland v Villa sounds like a low scoring game to the Major but I fancy Sunderland to edge it. Villa were not great even with the full complement of players against West Brom and Sunderland were no better at Bolton.
That is all from the Major this week. Make sure you put the horses in a lucky 15, it feels like the right thing to do….
Make sure dinner is relaxed and sumptuous. Take the lively one you have been eyeing up….. As ever, tip well and allow generosity to be repaid times over….
Luck to you, shuffle up the cards.