Monthly Archives: November 2011

The Majors Saturday Sermon – Hennessy Tips, Premier League et al

A fine late autumn morning to you all from the Major who has been up early, reading form and walking through the market town of Pershore, as like I, it woke from slumber.

It is cool and dry in Worcestershire and the purpose of my early morning constitutional sojourn was to take air, collect the racing publication and to absorb a little of life.

The Tank leaves a customary floundering wake, Newbury will miss him

The smell of the bakers was a delight, the cheery hello from the grocer as he stacked trays of colourful produce outside the store.  These elements were straight from a stereotypical market town, acknowledged.

Walking early in the morning, you notice make observations that other times of day blind you to.  I had never noticed the Baptist Church in the market square before.  The fine Georgian building has some interesting features and is fairly prominent.  When the Major is visiting the market square though late at night for a bottle of something fine, I am oblivious to this building.

A change of pace reveals camouflaged detail.  Sometimes it is good and neccessary to do exactly that.  For this mornings stroll in the cold air, I wore no coat.  Not a deliberate act, simply an ommission.  However, the cold feel of air on the skin is a sensation that many people dismiss as simply unpleasant.  The Major disagrees.  Cold ears can make you feel the sense that it is much better to be alive.

Thus, the Majors recent form requires new angles into todays races, rebirth, regeneration.  If you are a new follower (of which we had a couple of subscribers this week) or a regular, I can only apologise for the recent run of form.  The Major did his conkers on Long Run last week and yesterdays tip felt good but trailed in last of the finishers at Newbury.

Today we reload, the Major has bought a fresh mind to the day.  Let us daub the war paint once more to battle our devious enemy.  He of sleight of hand and deception of the mind.

What a day of sport we have too.  The Hennessy is the finest handicap there is in the Majors view.  More sensible than the Grand National and full of quality.  The big yards are all represented, they know what is required to win the race, more of that soon.

We also have the fighting fifth, made to be one of the Majors favourite races by Punjabi, who has a place in the Majors heart.  The year Punjabi won the fighting fifth, he had been kept on the go on the flat in the summer.  The Major fancied his as a leading Champion Hurdle contender and had been backing him in drips since his third in the championship race at the previous Cheltenham Festival.  Punjabi won the fighting fifth and went on to win the Champion Hurdle which was the Majors largest ever win, enough to pay for some fabulous women, not enough to keep them!

To the sports and in the words of a Mr Redmond, whom I know carries the essence of the Majors gambling spirit in his heart, go large or go home.

The Hennessy

With last weeks Kauto Star explosion at Haydock, there must be a pang in the air of Newbury that Denman, the other elder statesmen of the Nicholls yard goes direct to the Lexus rather than take in the Hennessy.

I have to say that surely this is the correct decision though.  Asking Denman to shoulder top weight (he is rated 9lbs superior to Neptune Collonges, running him would leave just 5 rivals in the handicap proper) and stick it to horses some 5 years his junior would be a cruel task to set in the Majors view.

Take a moment of your life and revel in the Tanks 2009 win in this race.  That day he could have carried me around.  If your hairs do not stand on end as he clears the cross rail fence without touching the birch; or when hearing the crowd cheer him on, even as What a Friend (who was in receipt of 2 STONE!!!) could not get to him on the run in…….. awesome, relentless power, a true champion – Watch and enjoy one of the best steeplechase performances of all time, the Tank was the right nickname, he just drew the sting out of all of them.

Todays race.  I think Great Endeavour is going to be all the rage.  Currently 6/1, the cosy Paddy Power winner carries a modest penalty for that race and is sure to go well.  Some punters may make more of the fact that he has never been extended to this distance but the way he finished up the Hill at Cheltenham, he should easily get a Newbury three miles.  The Pipe team have taken a couple of Hennessy Gold Cups in the last ten years, they know what it takes, he has a favourites chance.

Michel Le Bon carries the hopes of the Ditcheat team and could be anything, he fits the second season chaser trend of many Hennessy winners (taking Denmans other wins out).  Noel Fehily is one of the Majors favourite pilots and another that is highly considered, particularly as it is trading shorter than the Walsh ridden Nicholls horse.

Muirhead is the first of a couple I like at a price.  At 25/1 with Boylesports, I think you are getting terrific value.  Just slightly outside of the 6/7 year old bracket, Muirhead looked terrific in winning the Munster National and will not be inconvenienced by goodish ground.

Billie Magern carried the Majors money when disappointing last time but I am willing to keep faith.  He is highly tried and out of the Twiston Davies yard, I am sure they are not tilting at windmills so they must genuinely think better is possible.  He is only an effective 1lb better off with Great Endeavour for a 13l defeat in the Paddy Power but I am willing to take a punt that at 33/1 (much bigger on Betfair) he can be competitive in these conditions.

Aiteen Thirtythree is the other favoured Nicholls runner that has already shown some class as a novice.  You have to suspect that the reappearance run over a trip that was never going to suit was designed to protect a handicap mark.  With Ruby aboard and the opportunity to benchmark against Michel Le Bon, money would be significant.

The Major has to make a selection from these five and with a poor recent record, I am tempted to suggest Great Endeavour and Michel le Bon who have excellent and more obvious chances.  However, I am loading up the value guns on Muirhead and Billie Magern.  25/1 and 33/1 (bigger on the exchanges) – Load the cannons and thank me for my bravery later.

The Fighting Fifth

Thinking of bravery.  The Royal Northumberland Fusiliers (5th Regiment of foot) have a distinguished service history dating back to action in the 17th century.  They have seen service in the American Revolution but it was action in the Peninsular war of the early 19th century that earned the nickname of the fighting fifth.

It is not a bad nickname given some of the exploits of their soldiers in later warm engagements in India, particularly during the first mutiny.  Read the account of Private Patrick McHale VC who lead skirmishing to the gun positions when fighting the Sikhs at Cawnpore, or that of Peter McManus who also won a VC fighting in the streets of Lucknow rescuing a senior under fire from enemy sepoys.

In the year Punjabi won the fighting fifth, there was a £1m bonus for a horse that could collect this prize, the Christmas hurdle at Kempton and the Champion Hurdle.  The removal of this bonus brings just 5 contenders and I am not sure any of them will come close in Cheltenham in March.

The race has to be won though.  Binocular if anything like on top of his game will win.  It is hard to keep in mind that this horse is only 7.  He has shown dazzling brilliance and pretty shocking awfulness too.  First time out, will he go well?

It is all about match fitness for the Major.  Binocular has beaten Overturn in a fair fight and there is no good reason to expect that Overturn is better, there is good reason to suspect that he is fitter.  Celestial Halo while having a winning reappearance to the Major looks worse bet of the three.  I am not sure the reappearance amounted to much.

So the question is fitness or class?

I am going with Class.  Binocular.  Nicky Henderson may not have had the big winners in the last few weeks but there is no doubt that he is the apple of the McManus eye.  Fitness is a big concern.  Binocular is a bull of a horse and takes a lot of getting fit.  However, trainer comments seem to gently suggest he is in grander shape now then when narrowly losing out last year, this is not a strong a field, on that balance, I am in, odds against at 11/10 is very fair.

7.50 Wolverhampton

Yes, the Major reviews the top races of the day and also brings you his thoughts on the Bookiefreebies.com Handicap at Wolverhampton tonight.

The horse that catches my eye is the Ed Dunlop trained Voodoo Prince.  Off a long break, this three year old returns to action after being gelded.  I often wonder if we gelded the England football team whether it would have the desired effect of getting them focussed back on the sport…

However, in this case, I think they have taken action as the horse should be better than shown.  He has been defeated favourite on his last two starts after winning a very nice mile race at Haydock in the spring.

The question is whether this is to get a run into the horse or whether we have a bit of a good thing.  What settled the Majors mind was the jockey booking.  McLaughlin is a sound booking and he turns up at Wolverhampton for this single ride, a bit of effort.

I am willing to overlook the breeding record on the surface which is poor and pile in at a tasty 6/1 that we have found a good thing.

To the football…….

Mr Hill of the good ship Hiscox will once again denounce the Major selecting against the mighty West Brom but Spurs at Evens is an absurd price.  They are one of the best teams in the division and are playing very good stuff.  Albion will be missing key players, potentially including Long and I would take Spurs every time at that price.

I like the concession with Bet365  (could be a few punts with them today) on their double and treble the goalscorer in the Charlton, Liverpool v Man City and Stoke v Blackburn fixtures.  Essentially you get the price if a single goal is scored but double and treble the price if 2 goals or a hat-trick is bagged by your selection.  They are best price Jon Parkin too at 7/1 so I suggest an investment for Monday night.

QPR are a monster price to win at Carrow Road.  5/2 does not reflect the fact that they are the better team.  They were last season and they are this season too both on results and on the additions to their squad.  Get stuck in.

Tonight, curry is the order of the day, keep it nice and simple, local fare, eat with your hands.  Take a friend.

Courage, roll those dice.

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Friday Newbury Special – Let the Major pay for the Weekend

Good evening from Defford where the wine has flown and the Major presents the depths of his mind for your inspection.

The Newbury Hennessy meeting is into the second day and the Major has a particular fancy in the Novice handicap chase running at 2.10.

Load thy cannons followers, it is time to get lumpy…

First to Educating Evans.  This Twiston Davies horse won very nicely at Chepstow last time out, completely disregarding his hurdles form.  That was not a massive surprise as his chase debut had seen him go off as favourite and so clearly the yard think he is a much better horse over the stiffer jumps.  As a potential significant improver as a chaser, he may well be worth all 11lbs he has been raised.  The Major has concerns over the ground for this one though and looks elsewhere.

Sollim has to be of interest with the red hot Ruby and Nicholls team joining up for what would be a 4th yard win in the last 7 runnings of this race.  Having only run on soft or worse, it is hard to know what the horse will make of conditions but this is the sort of french horse Nicholls does very well with.  Strongly considered on reputation alone.

Falcon Island is an interesting runner for the Tizzards who are not as in good touch as some.  It is hard to know what this one achieved at Taunton when beating three rivals on the latest outing and that run showed that the previous outing, when smashed by Educating Evans must be all wrong.  At 10s I prefer him to the Twiston Davies horse.

Artic Ben seems to have few secrets and would need a big going day to win.  I am always interested in a Richard Johnson ride but he does not have a great strike rate for Henry Daly and so overlooked.

Carabinier is the selection for the bang in form Henderson yard who cannot stop winning at the moment.  OK, there is more potential than evidence but he has been running through the summer and won a class 5 maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter.  Interesting enough been introduced to chasing at a reasonable level and will be fine on the ground, 9/1 is very tasty all considered.

Have a thick slice and thank me later.  If Sollim hacks up, well you know you should have had a saver.  If the reverse forecast comes in, send me a bottle!

 

The Saturday Sermon – All Aboard the Long Run Express…. choo choo

The Major wishes you the finest morning from Birmingham from where I type a very short Saturday Sermon.

The Major was on the town last night and thus a curtailed post is all I can manage but fear not, we have a monster monster double to pave the way to steak dinner this evening.

Long Run will not be beaten.  There.

People forget easily what true class looks like and Long Run is the real deal.  His Gold Cup performance was easily the best in years and he can only have improved over the winter.  Any doubts about going fresh are cast from my mind watching Henderson rack up a five timer yesterday across the cards with four of those winners being seasonal debuts.

Long Run is a course record breaking super star.  Odd Against is absurd.  Load both cannons with the heavy shot and kaboooooom 6/5 shabash.

The second part of the double is the very generous prices about Derby who I think are on the up and will easily deal with mangerless Hull at home today.  7/4 in a place, 6/4 more commonly, have a slice.

That is the tastiest double you will get this side of Christmas!  Enjoy.

No dinner plans.

Courage, roll those dice.

The Sunday Gambling Sermon – Greatwood Hurdle Tips

A fine morning to you from the Major.  Sadly yesterday was not quite the tide turning event that I envisaged and although we went close with a few, including a 2nd foir 20/1 Divers, we are still awaiting glorious redemption.

It is Greatwood Hurdle day at Cheltenham and another decent card with two Grade two races, a grade three and a listed contest.

1.10 Novice Chase

Al Ferof missed a Bangor engagement this week which would have seen him tackle the high potential chaser, Peddlers Cross.  If he jumps well he should win this but these novice events can be extremely difficult to predict with the horses likely to learn from the experience.

Restless Harry was a classic case yesterday, travelled OK but his jumping was defintely novicey and he is likely to be better after a few more efforts over top obstacles.

I am willing to take the same gamble on Al Ferof though.  That was a good Supreme Novice and since he was the top 2m novice hurdler a half decent translation to the big fences and he must win.

For those who prefer their bets in this sort of race, each way, I would sugest Lancetto at 10s.

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle

The third race of the day is the Greatwood Hurdle.  I am interested in two, 8/1 Moon Dice and 9/1 A Media Luz.

The former looked highly impressive when taking the Galway Hurdle.  Moon Dice goes well fresh and surely a big run is expected.

A Media Luz has more question marks.  He travelled beautifully into the Aintree race on reappearance but emptied quite quickly.  Let’s hope that was match fitness only.  He has not got a good Cheltenham record but that is only based on two runs.

If you like a big punt, there is no way Harry Tricker should be 66/1.  OK, I accept that there are plenty of questions to answer but this horse was able to claim a runner up spot in this a couple of years ago.  There are not that many miles on the clock and he is in good hands.  I suggest a small each way interest.

On balance, Moon Dice…. Have a slice.

Neptune Novice Hurdle

Fingal Bay looked like he was oozing quality when pouring it on at Chepstow and the Major cannot see him getting beaten here.  Horses without Cheltenham form can be risky propositions on debut at Prestbury but Fingal Bay got round Chepstow with no problem and that is a similar track.

11/10 have a big slice.

 

 

The Saturday Sermon – Cheltenham Tips….. Load the Cannons… two 20/1 shots for the Paddy Power

Good morning from Defford where the Major greets the new day like souls awakening.

Yesterdays Cheltenham tips were mediocrity at best, Uncle Junior paid a 6/1 winner and a second from Haventascoobydo at 8/1 drew the mildest of profits.  Suburban Bay could have made the day a superb one but fell when travelling strongly in second, three out…. ah the tribulations.

Billie Magern for the Major..... 20/1 shabash

The last race saw Grand Crus plant himself as a credible alternate to Long Run in the Gold Cup picture.  His jumping was assured and with main rival Cue Card fighting for his head throughout, Grand Crus looked the business.  Very exciting chaser.

The last few weeks have been barren times for the Major so even a day of such modest profit is a relief.  Perhaps the tide is turning.  At moments like these I am drawn to think of the boys holding the square at Thermopylae or the gallant 44th shedding their claret on the hill at Gandemak.

As Kipling wrote ‘ If you can force your nerve and sinew, to serve your turn long after they have gone, and so hold on when there is nothing in you, except the will which says the to them ‘hold on!’

Stay the course followers.  The Cheltenham card….

1.20 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial

The first of the feast from Cheltenham.  What a tremendous day of racing.  To those on course, Mr Cherry, Mr T Smith, Hathaway, Zac, Mr Lyons et al, the Major wishes you the best of luck.  Empty some satchels.

The two french imports dominate the market and it is clear that they are two well fancied novice hurdlers this season.  Of the two preference would be for the Henderson horse Ozeta.

At the prices though 15/8 the pair, the Major is going elsewhere and I have decided to take a chance on the improving Secret Edge at 9/1.  The listed win at Wetherby reads just fine and there is more to come.  British obstacle experience is a boost and let us not forget that Alan King has won this race with the fine racehorses Franchoek and Katchit in recent years.  Secret Edge could well have more to offer……

Load the big cannon.

1.55 Handicap Chase

The money has been pouring in for Hennessy (Is this a Pricewise horse, I do not have the paper this morning!), backed into 8s from 12/1.  That looks significant being a Ferdy Murphy inmate, he is well capable of readying a gamble.

The money on Betfair looks one way and I forecast 6/1 at the off.  Someone will be eating steak if this comes in.

I think though that the Nicholls charge, Promising Anshan deserves a big punt.  At 5/1 it is leading the market and the Major still thinks there is value there.  Surely this one will improve for the step up in trip.  The Aintree form, in behind the implausibly well handicapped Exmoor Ranger, looked more than adequate and he was probably not fully tuned up that day.  With normal improvement, this one should be involved at the foot of the hill.

I am interested in the Ditcheat team as they have started the season strongly.

2.35 Chelthenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup

Here we are at the feature race of the day and it is an absolute cracker.  Figuring out the puzzle is made harder by the generic ground conditions but the Major has figured an angle into two at big prices and is ready to lay for your delectable concern my Paddy Power gold cup tips before you.

Poquelin will be fancied as we always see his best form at Prestbury but not for the Major.  The normal profile for the winner is sub eleven stone but from a big name trainer.  Only one 9 year old has won in the last ten years, none older, and so it is an improving sort in a top class yard we want.

Reve de Sivola will win a big race one day but he won’t be carrying my money when he does.  He travels beautifully and like David James can look superb but is prone to walking through the odd fence which he manages with alarming regularity and tends to time it for when the Majors hopes are at their pinnacle.  I have given up on this one and will wait for the day he returns at a massive price!

There are two 20/1 shots I am willing to back.  There are lots that almost made it and the discarded from the shortlist include 16/1 shots Araldur and the De Bromhead raider Loosen my Load.  The two for me though on balance are….

The first is Billie Magern.  At 7, there could be plenty of improvement to be seen from this Twiston-Davies horse and we must remember that the trainer has won two of the last three Paddy Powers.  Billie Magerns two and a half mile win last month looked very decent.  That was course form too which ticks another box.  Although up 7lbs, it makes no technical difference as he is a fistful of pounds wrong in the handicap anyway, have a slice.

The other is Divers, a Ferdy Murphy horse who ran a shocker on reappearance last month.  That is insignificant for this one though as this was always going to be the aim and a handicap raising barn-storming reappearance was never going to be on the cards.  Also racing from the bottom of the weights, officially 4lbs wrong, is not a concern and I really do feel a big run could be in order.

Back both each way (watch the terms) and a reverse forecast will have you sending the Major brandy (A decent Hennessy please)!

3.10 Handicap Hurdle

A very simple and elegant solution here, back the 8/1 shot Oscargo who looks to have a great chance.

Lightly raced, Nicholls and Walsh, 8/1 and decent Chepstow form which should translate well to here (also a rolling left handed tough course).

Have two slices, send me the postcard.

3.40 Cheltenham – Novice Handicap Hurdle

There are a number of horses to catch the eye in this and Edgardo Sol is sure to be popular with the same Nicholls / Walsh combination as Oscargo in the previous.  While that one looks very well handicapped, it is a 14/1 shot that the Major is going to tip.

Walden Prince has been racing very respectably in Ireland and has now joined a new yard.  I think this is an interesting start for the horse who is match fit.  There was plenty to like about his second last time out as the winner looks very decent.  A replication of that form entitles this one to go close.

4.10 Novice Chase

If Restless Harry translates his useful hurdle form to the chase obstacles, he will take all of the beating and at 13/8, I do not think it is a prohibitive price.  He has the look of a chasing type and the Major would not put you off.

Offering that up as a Cheltenham tip might be foolish.  I like to see novices jump before getting involved but today, for Restless Harry, I make an exception.  Should win well.

If you must get involved with the England game, bet 0-0 at half time.  It has that feel to the Major.

May your dinner be delightful and served by a fine-looking sort.  Let the quarry see the roll of notes but try to be subtle, else you appear crass.

Courage, roll the dice.