Saturday Sermon – York Saturday Bond Tyres Trophy Tip – The Major on a rest

Good morning all from a grey Worcestershire where the ‘one in fifty’ year storm seems to have passed with little notice.

Apologies for the lack of a Saturday Service last week.  The Major surprised his family with a trip to France and as a result,  insufficient arrangements were made to allow your correspondent to offer you the usual Saturday drivel  and help  lose your hard earned wedge.

Indeed, today  is a  very short post too with just one tip.  I promise to write more at Royal Ascot.

Soundtracking my breakfast…. This morning was a fine nutty bun  toasted  with a smoked salmon and egg topping.  Dash of lemon ,   lovely.   All credit to Mike’s Smokehouse for the work  with the fish.

To the sport…

3.10 Bond Tyres Handicap – York Tip

I chose this race not because the fiendish field of 20 runners in a tricky handicap appealed.  I rather leave that to Pricewise.  No, I chose this contest to seek a Saturday tip for you because of the Victor Chandler offer which I suggest you invest in.

Their concession is a free matched bet of £20 for the first day of Royal Ascot and twenty free spins in their online nonsense.  The first raised a tickle, the second meant nothing.

Draw bias is not an obvious asset in tipping this race, I favour high draws but would not be put off the middle and neither would I pin all hope on it.  The soft ground is definitely an advantage to the astute punter though.  I would put my life and your wallet on a proven mudlark going in.

That narrows my field substantially to Dam Beautiful, Roger Sez, Last Bid, Glen Moss, Gabriels Lad, Nameitwhatyoulike, Tioman Lad and Three AM Tour.

I then want a lightweight as this is a handicap with a strong trend towards the bottom of the card.  That also suggests lightly raced and something that ran will last time – An improver.

Dam Beautiful – Recent form is not ideal and with few excuses, although god to soft ground has seen her at the best, too much weight, too little promise.

Roger Sez – I rule out on the form of the Easterby yard who have a 1 in 20 strike rate from a lot of runners in the last fortnight.  Plus top weight…

Gabriels Lad – Three seconds in his juvenile season, followed by a winner this year in his only race at Kempton.  You might be wondering why I am considering offering his as the tip since he has only run on Polytrack.  Well I always think that Kempton horses are OK on soft and being out of Dark Angel, I don’t see it being a problem on breeding – This is Fallons sixth ride for the stable in the last two years (1 win, 2 places)… strongly considered.

Nameitwhatyoulike – I think this horse will be screaming for more rain.  This happens to be the Pricewise tip and so you can imagine that the market around him has trimmed significantly already.   In his favour, he has been running with credit over further and gets in on just 8-6.  Personally I am not convinced.

Three AM Tour – This is a hot race and I am uncertain as to whether this horse is not a bit exposed.  On balance, not one for the Major.

Last Bid – I am less convinced that the ground will be against this one as many commentators suggest.  I do think the weight makes life tougher though and this one also gets the red line through it, not under it.

Glen Moss – There is a lot to like in the Major’s eyes about this Charles Hills inmate.  The stable don’t have that many runners at York and since this horse won a decent Kempton race, he has fared well enough in handicaps to suggest he could be involved.

Tioman Lad – This is another whom the Major includes not because he is proven on soft but because his pedigree suggests it is not a problem.  After having a set back for a year, it is possible to rule out the return run and that leaves a latest effort at Newmarket to assess.  On paper it looks poor, having finished behind Top Cop and Barthomleu.  Yet, he broke badly and finished well.  Even as the seeming stable second string, I would consider him… Perhaps….

So to make the call….. On balance I really like the chances of Gabriels Lad (12/1) – This is the Saturday York tip from the Major and I hope it brings you prosperity.

It is my brother in laws 40th today and I am off to his barbecue event.  He has promised to supply the booze which seems a bit harsh since they are his celebrations so I shall take a bottle of something decent.  In time honoured tradition, I shall also stake a bet for him.  I am thinking along the lines of a small accumulator or some other strange combination on Germany, Frankel, Black Caviar, Gabriels Lad and Fort Bastion (Jersey Stakes).

May your dinner be a noisy affair in the company of many good friends.  Drink well, eat well and rejoice.

Courage, roll those dice.

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