Good morning from the Major who writes from a cool grey Defford – The light outside looks like a soft filter you might find on a gushy film, the coffee is bubbling up and I am ready to rid myself of the ‘cold list’ moniker.
I have found a decent handicap at Brighton that warrants our attention. The 3.50 comes with nearly £10k of prize money which ain’t bad.
You might notice a new page at the top of the blog problem gambling. Yes the Major decided that it was time to have some content on this on the site. I have not written much, just a few words understanding the destructive power of a gambling addiction. There are links to Gamcare who are the real experts and provide support for those who find themselves in trouble.
I might ask a guest blogger to post a few USPGA tips tonight – Watch this space.
Brighton, Bath, Epsom and Goodwood are all southern tracks that share some characteristics. All of them have cambers and all undulate with some sharp turns. This has always made track form important to the Major for these courses.
This is the first filter I want to apply to the 16 runners due to post. Incidentally, I hope we do get all 16 as it would give the value of the extra place paid.
The horses that are stand out on my first sweep are You’ve Been Mowed, Methayal, Fire King, Green Earth and Esprit Danseur.
The market prefers the chances of Great Shot a 4/1 general favourite. You can see why, his credentials stand out on his last run at Ascot where he led home the wrong side. Hughsie takes the ride and while he is a great pilot, the horse has to prove that this sort of track will suit.. considered.
Chosen Character is on a four timer but is upped in class to attempt it – That coupled with a 7lb rise looks enough to stop him. It is worth noting that Natasha Eaton is two from two riding for Dascombe…. dangerous but overlooked.
At a 20/1 price (William Hill) Xinbama is not without hope. The winning run from earlier in the season stopped abruptly but a return to form would not be out of the question and the horse has the form to figure.
For the purpose of the Major’s midweek Brighton tip though… There are two in the spotlight: 10/1 Methayal and 14/1 Fire King.
The former has done all her winning at Brighton with the exception of a Wolverhampton success three starts back. Clearly she likes a rattling ground and back at her favourite venue, nothing other than a big race can be expected.
Fire King is out of the mighty Falbrav who would have beaten this lot with me aboard. Fire King was last seen out at Salisbury (with the Major present) just getting home in a poorer race than this. His penultimate run was worse still. Yet, the Major cannot help but wonder if a little more improvement is not there. He likes undulating tracks and while he holds no secrets from the handicapper and is racing off his highest mark yet, his Salisbury win showed good heart and was only 2lbs lower.
On balance, Methayal is the Brighton Wednesday tip and let us hope it fills our satchels to overflowing and allows a mighty punt at the golf.