Good evening from the Major on a cold Worcestershire night.
Today’s raid on the enemy was a successful one. We managed to land three of the four advices in the lucky 15 and had other winners to boot. Chance or skill?
A lottery is random, as is roulette. Racing is not. Chance has a role in racing, sometimes supporting actor melting into the background, sometimes the lead. Yet; form, conditions, distance, trainer, jockey, handicapper, course, freshness, trends, experience and ability all enter the calculation of chance too. Your ability to handle two things is critical in determining chance.
The calculation itself and the story you conceive. Thus punting on racing is part art, part science. Ah to achieve this endeavour with elegance. Elegance, that mixture of success and style, surely the zenith of existence.
Renard D’Irlande will be a warm tipping order after showing reasonably well over chase fences on debut at Taunton. That horse has tied form with Grandioso who has no experience of tis but is in excellent hands. Both are ignored in favour of a punt on Coole River (7/1?) who was a better hurdler and while been missing for three years, could be something yet.
In the second, Basil Fawlty looks a likely type. Jockey is a massive factor in any race and Paddy Brennan is the best of these. The Pipe horse may have more to offer up in trip 9/2.
I get a feel that Pipe wants to win the 2.40 and so 5/1 Top Wood gets my vote.
Market Rasen Thursday Tips
Nap of the day is Brassick in the 1.20 – Everything screams big run to me. 3/1 if we are lucky. King of the Wolds is the chief danger.
In the 1.50, I was struggling to split Overquest and Bishophill Jack but managed to find favour for the latter, 4/1, on trainer track and jockey record.
I like Balding Banker in the next at 5/1 but it’s a tentative tip.
War Poet in the last is a much More solid proposition – A stand out flat performer, this mark looks laughable if progressing as expected .
At Clonmel, it would be nice to see how The Real Article fares, I am struggling to find another bet there.
The Hill Trixie Brassick, Basil Fawlty, War Poet – not quite the usual lucky 15 but stands a chance.