Only a quick post, only a few thoughts. The Major is to bed.
I have surveyed tomorrows cards and there are a few interesting runners.
1.00 Fakenham Tip
Ballymacahillcross is of some interest, stepping up in distance could make some difference but it needs to. The Plumpton second was OK but no better than OK, few horses have come out of that race and so I am at best dubious.
Etricht for Henderson is fascinating, a champion bumper sixth has been followed by a close up finish to the likes of Steps to Freedom, so the form is not easily dismissed. Maybe the season break will have done wonders too and it is early to dismiss a horse in such masterful hands but at the prices, it feels like a race to look for some each way value.
The pick for me is 5/1 (forecast) Liberty Court who was a point winner and was due to win a bumper but was he was his own worst enemy at the finish. TIm Vaughan is a trainer I rate and it is perfectly conceivable that Liberty Court has learned a lot from that experience – if Etricht flops, I fully expect my tip to pick up the pieces.
3.30 Fakenham Tip
I love a novice hurdle and this one has three horses I am interested in.
Fork Handles is a Mick Channon inmate that showed some signs of life on the flat. Now transferred in ownership to Koukash, we know we can expect some handicap wins at some point. Investing but best watched I think.
Any Henderson novice has to be closely examined as his yard is a gold mine exciting novices raring to go first time. Cevaro is a recent bumper winner at Hereford but that form looks uncertain at best and the fact Henderson is reaching for a claimed when other jockeys may have been available suggests at first glance that this is not his strongest novice. Yet the jockey is having just the third ride and has one one of the first two starts. Plus, Henderson does not send many to Fakenham but has a fearful strike rate there (5 from 7 in last two years). Danger to all.
Tom George is an even more infrequent visitor but his runner Terre de Vente rates the most interesting in the field. She showed some very credible ability in France and her first two runs in Britain were in top class company. Flopping against Quevega is excusable and her run at Sandown in grade 2 company was very well until she fell. Dropped to a more realistic assignment, it will be very interesting to see how she goes.
Forecast Prices… Fork Handles 12/1, Cevaro 3/1 and Terre de Vent 6/4. On balance, I have to be on Terre de Vent who looks a class above these if taking a literal view of the form lines… Destined for bigger races I think.
Other Fakenham Tips and Thoughts
in the 1.30, Ajman is short enough. While I can understand the interest in a Williams runner that was in a winning position before falling last time out; there is some tough opposition here, consider dutching Wom and Lisdonagh House, the former loves it here and the latter is on a hat trick and a 9lb lump for the last win may not stop him.
18 months ago, Fine Parchment was winning a Grade 3 elevating him to a mark in the mid 140’s and running midfield in the Paddy Power. Fast forward to present day and the mark has dropped 20lbs all for the good reason that he seems to have fallen out of love with the game. Some day it’s perfectly possible that the spark returns. Personally I am tipping up Cross of Honour who is only of marginal preference to Frontier Spirit and Camden. Small stakes only.
The 2.30 is a punch up between the Henderson horse Lieutenant Miller and recent Folkestone winner Who Owns Me with the Majors preference slightly for the latter. A reverse forecast is absolutely in order.
Mussleburgh Tips and Thoughts
In the opener I like both Pickworth and King Brex. Pickworth looks reasonably progressive but has to step up here. King Brex ran respectably on seasonal debut and gets my dreaded tip on account of his previous better form and being ridden by the best jockey in the race, Lucy Alexander. I can well imagine a better run today at 5/1.
I’m always a watcher of Ferdy Murphy horses on debut and it is interesting that Glasson Lad steps up in trip on handicap debut – have a small 16/1 slice.
That’s it from me. Courage and roll those dice.