Daily Archives: December 13, 2012

Friday Cheltenham Horseracing Tips – Shabash, roll those dice

Good evening from the Major who writes with a head cold brewing, the system is slowing down, the heartbeat is louder and forced, things are aching.

The good living seems to be catching up on me yet the real heavy nights are still ahead of me, this weekend.  A combination of rigorous drinking, single-mindedness and hardcore N-(4-hydroxyphenyl) ethanamide will see me through.

Tomorrow there is racing at Cheltenham.  I was thinking of an early night but was persuaded to write-up some Cheltenham tips by a foxy piece earlier.

There I was earlier, a gentlemen mingling among acquaintances, glass of champagne in hand… when over she strolls, wanton look in her eye, not the most glamorous sort but a certain curl of the lip lets you know where her mind is running… ‘you have something I want….‘  Well well thinks I…. ‘I am racing at Cheltenham tomorrow, give us your tips’

In hindsight perhaps anything else was unlikely.

So to Cheltenham and lets daub the war paint and do battle once more….. Ms N, good luck.

Cheltenham Tips

In the opener Rebel Rebellion for the champion trainer could be interesting stepped down in class from a daunting assignment trying to tackle the hugely exciting Captain Conan.  I think he might be bumping into more useful sorts here though and would need to show a lot of improvement for the step up in trip.

Henderson, Longsden and McCain have their strings in fine order and I think it is wise to concentrate on their runners.  Hilldisvini is small but progressing nicely, might just have run into a decent field here though.  Super Duty looks decent, particularly the line through Simonsig.

Yet, boring as it seems, the Major is tipping Broadbackbob for the opener at 5/4.  The yard, ground and trip look fine and this horse was very reasonable over the smaller obstacles.

The second race is a conditional jockeys affair and in these contests, the quality of the jockey plays a bigger role than normal.  Mr Nolan has a 17% strike rate, Mr Derham, Lineham and Bellamy between 12-13% and Lucy Alexander is a top notch rider too (11%).

I do not want to look any further than Simply Wings (Nolans ride) at 7/1 – A bloodless winner of a beginners chase last time, my tip should go well for 7/1.

The 1.20 handicap is an open affair (9/2 the field) – Tom Du Lys is an easy selection at 8/1 – It looks like the horse is being backed so may go off shorter.  The reasoning is the same that everyone else will see – Henderson, Geraghty, French Import, Handicap debut slightly disappointing, put away until this season!

The Grade 3 handicap at 1.55 is the graded race of the day.  Bradley has run well at Cheltenham before and given that he handles the track, he will be a warm order.   Quartz de Thaix is a horse seemingly on the upgrade and while upped in class, might be a better horse yet.

Midnight Chase has excellent course form and is surely booked to be in the places and can take the race.

Not a race I want to be heavily involved in but I am opting for Becauseicouldntsee – If the Thurles run was a warm up then the horse will be well for this and the yard are hardly one to tilt at anything.

The cross country will hopefully get the go ahead and if so I don’t think it is worth looking beyond 3/1 Uncle Junior and 5/1 Bostons Angel.  I would back the former, despite the top weight, who has experience of this game.

The penultimate race a class 2 handicap is a quality race and again is a fairly open affair – I could make cases for quite a few.

The most appealing of a long list are Inish Island who seems unlikely on profile but won a hurdle race last time at Downpatrick nicely.  In excellent hands to try to cope with the step up in distance and the assistance of the Walsh ride.

At Fishers Cross won readily last time and while seemingly moving left across the track for pressure, still had plenty in hand.  The jumping was a bit of a concern and let’s face it, Cheltenham is going to examine that closely.

Saint Roque is interesting, bought down when getting competitive latest, but it is a worry that Ruby has gone for Inish Island.  The course experience could be important but Nicholls string seem to be going a little of the boil after an awesome run 3/4 weeks ago.

Sivola de Sivola has a big race in him but often needs a lot of encouragement and if something arrives on the hill travelling more smartly, I am not sure I would want to be on the Tom George inmate in a crisis.

Tight call between some interesting sorts.  On each you make a compromise   The compromise I am happiest with is that At Fishers Cross, can step up and make quality count.  I am hoping the slower pace of this race will enable a cleaner round of jumping.  9/2.

Eduard is the bumper tip at 9/2 after ifandbutwhynot franked the Newcastle race they competed in.

Thursday Gowran Tips… Racing losing fixtures to the frost…

The ice, the cold, it bites at your skin… trees are frozen, still statues, alien to their swaying past.  The act of freezing, the temporary suspension of life.

Everything is so beautiful in the morning, all is white.  Crystal formation on twigs, hazy freezing fog hugging the earth, the sound deafened to a whisper, life exists but only beyond vision, masked by the blanket of cold.  I love it.

Racing fixtures are being abandoned to mother nature.  A shame, there were a couple I fancied at Leicester today.

It is a shame to see Kauto Star’gate’ continuing in such public fashion.  Surely the parties involved could act with a bit more class.  If you are able in life to accept that you are wrong a lot of the time then confrontation diminishes.  If you can accept no thing, please leave, your sort is not welcome here.

To Gowran…

Gowran Park Tips – Thursday

The opener is a juvenile contest in which all attention will be on my tip, the Mullins trained Dougal Philps.  No market is open yet, bar Betfair of course which suggests 5/4.  That would be generous as I think this is a weak field and this selection is in the right hands.  His Ballinrobe flat form is average but nothing has much better.  Well placed I suspect even though it is hard to be majorly enthusiastic about any three year old tackling hurdles.

Upazo and Umpact are the two that will surely between them produce the winner.  Mullins is obviously going to be the favoured trainer for this race.  So Young the half brother to Upazo is a good advert for the 1/2 favourite who won a nice bumper .  Umpact also won a nice race in similar French conditions and the placed horses have done just as much to advertise the quality.  On balance 2/1 Umpact gets my nod.

Misca Musca and Treat Yourself seem the two to concentrate on as they both seem on the upgrade with last time out wins.  I tip the latter on the basis of jockey prowess with Davy Russell, one of the best, riding with a 25% yard strike rate – That surely suggests the best part of a stone increase since Treat Yourself won might not be enough to stop the horse.

In the 2.05, again there are two clear market principles to try and differentiate.  Mozoltov is going to be a warm order for Mullins having placed in Grade 1 bumper company.  However, Sizing Gold, gets the Majors tip after some highly useful placed form behind the exciting Don Cossack.  Experience of hurdling will be a massive plus so the current 11/8 is fine.

The 2.35 looks a tough call between Lough Roe Lady and Sherika with the former looking good to go in again with extra distance a plus.

One of the most painful horses to follow in racing runs in the penultimate race.  Champagne Agent deserves a win and this looks the easiest chance yet.

I literally have no view on the bumper.

I am aware that these Gowran Park selections are all short prices.  That is unusual for the Major but I suggest a number of multiples to spice it up for you.

Courage, roll those dice.