The Saturday Sermon – Chepstow Welsh National Tips, Sandown Tolworth Tips and FA Cup 3rd Round Tips – Load the cannons

Good morning from the Major who writes from deep into the South Wales rolling hills.  The air blusters about full of mischief and fine precipitation.

I like Pembrokeshire, the land is full of energy and richness.  It is the first serious landfall the Atlantic weather hits and you can sense the potential for violence .  The landscape is deep green, gods own colour.

The Major is here to celebrate, it is my mothers 65th birthday today and the family are gathered to honour the occasion.  Thus forgive (or celebrate) depending on your viewpoint a more succinct post this morning, the Major is required elsewhere.

No one even asked about my motto ‘courage and roll the dice’.  A dozen asked me for my Tony McCoy tip so I can only draw that you’re all using me to benefit from the sporting information only.

This could be upsetting if if it weren’t so damn perplexing. Are you all mad?

Anyway I told you that I’d reveal an origin.  Like most original pieces, it is plagiarised thus unoriginal.  I’m not the only one… When bolt crossed the line to win the 100m in London and the ‘champion became a legend’… Well Macabe Diva fans will recall those words from the third Melbourne Cup win.

So Courage and roll the dice?  Well google the phrase and replace roll the dice with ‘shuffle the cards’. You will find the origin and this Irishwoman has a magnificent tale to tell – I could relate it but you need to do some things yourself.

I would like to do more writing in the subject of mathematical  probability.  Not that I can compete with some of the better writers but I will try.

One of the punting angles I want to try is spotting connected probabilities that others have not.

I have in mind, finding a race whose form is more highly rateable than at first sight and where several horses finish close up.  If I can find a future market for a number of those horses then multiples would exponentially increase your reward for judging the race correctly.

More of that when I have the time to expand on it.  Today it’s straight to thesports.

The Welsh National – Chepstow Tips

When the going report at Chepstow reads heavy, think mudbath, think swimming – We need an out and out stayer.

The front of the Racing Post seems to have taken a design dive.  They have had some magnificent covers in recent times but the tenuous and childish Mr T gag with AP McCoy is pretty poor fare.  Never mind, usual standards will return I am sure.

For the Welsh National tip, we want a 7-9 year old that is a proven stayer and preferably less than eleven stone.  While it has been won by horses carrying a lot of weight (Ill fated Gold Cup here Synchronised being the prime example), when racing on heavy, trends logically dictate we want featherweights.

The favourite, Teaforthree has drifted to 4/1 with Paddy Power and that looks very backable.  The festival winner is only carrying 11-3 as Across the Bay remained in at the decs stage to burden top weight.

The other horse I like is Master Overseer.  This horse likes heavy, is a proven stayer, is in form and represents good connections.

On balance, I think 4/1 Teaforthree still has value so have a chunky slice and thank me later.

I love Paul Nicholls horses at Chepstow and surely he in unleashing one of the top potential sorts in Caid Du Berlais in the 1.30 Grade 1 Future Juveniles.  The horse will have no problem in the mud and 2/1 is very fair, easy tip.

Sandown Tips – 2.25 The Tolworth

In the opener, while Kentford Grey LAdy has very obvious credentials, I am opting for the slightly enigmatic (has refused to race) Une Artiste (9/4 tip).  The Henderson mare has been a value punt for me on several occassion and I take that precocious attitude to poke through again!

The Tolworth

Poet, 4/1, The Clive Cox former group flat winner made a decent start over hurdles when tipped by the Major at Newbury.  The Tolworth is a big step up but this horse who is a late recruit to hurdling could be a danger to all, particularly as he loves the mud.

My tip looks entirely progressive and can take the Tolworth in good style, have a mega slice.

FA Cup 3rd Round Tips

In the football it is FA Cup third round weekend and the Major intends to maintain a profitable stream of thinking from recent seasons.

When a lower end or in fashionable Premier League team plays away at lower league opposition, I find it profitable to follow them if certain conditions are met.  Firstly, you don’t want teams in freefall mode (such as Villa and Newcastle).

Secondly you don’t want them playing a team of upcoming stars such as Stoke who go to Palace with their youthful England star surely seeking a big performance.

No I’m looking for the overpriced Premiership outfits travelling to lower league clubs who are doing well.

I strongly believe the quality gap is underpriced.  It is likely that a premier league team will play a weakened side, that is overly weighted in my view.  The likelihood is that a second premier eleven is comfortably as strong as a decent championship team and often have greater personal motivation.  Changing personnel can be a huge positive, they are fresh as well as motivated.  Plus they have been cutting their teeth at a higher level, substantially higher.

Two outstanding candidates present themselves and I suggest a massive slice of Norwich and Reading.  6/4 and 6/5 respectably, go crazy in multiples.

May your dinner be rowdy with hood people and full of fun – eat with your hands, maybe Mexican and swig cool beer from the bottle.  Be thankful for existence.

The Martin Hill Lucky 15 is Poet 4/1, Norwich 6/4, Reading and Une Artiste 9/4.

Courage and roll those dice.

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3 responses to “The Saturday Sermon – Chepstow Welsh National Tips, Sandown Tolworth Tips and FA Cup 3rd Round Tips – Load the cannons

  1. On reflection you might not want to put up Jim Morrison as a role model for risk analysis, but I thought his analogy was pretty amusing, as well as holding an element of truth;
    “It’s like gambling somehow. You go out for a night of drinking and you don’t know where your going to end up the next day. It could work out good or it could be disastrous. It’s like the throw of the dice.”

  2. Pingback: Betfair Hurdle Preview: Caid Du Berlais Can Confirm Chepstow Promise | Systemlays

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