The Saturday Sermon – Ascot, Haydock, Naas and some Football thoughts – Shabash

Good morning from the Major who writes from a wet Worcestershire scene.  Gazing out across the land at first light, menacing dark glimmers hint at the temporary lakes caused by inability of the Avon to drain quickly enough.  They are ominous, glinting and dark.  As the light comes, they lose their malevolent presence becoming peaceful rippling surfaces on which wetland birds glide.

How the darkness of night is lifted, a mirror for my thoughts.

Last night, listening to heavy rain outside was thoroughly relaxing, the patter accompanied by the whirring sound of high winds whipping around the solid brick.  All while you settle in to a dose of whatever you fancy while the woodburner roars away – Peace.

The Major has had a further challenging week, one that has been largely devoid of sleep and so the 11 hours that I enjoyed last night overdue and welcome.  I would not describe myself as feeling sharp as a result, more sluggish if anything but a contentment has come and it only means one thing… winners.  I can sense the moment before the victory and this morning reeks of it.

I am keeping the Sermon short this morning due to family commitments but wish you all the happiest punting victories.  Yet this high confidence means I am invested well into outcomes today.

Last week was a right off for the racing but we landed all three football bets.  To be fair, it was hard not to win on the football last week with all of the top teams in every division securing three points.

Daub thy war paint young warriors and mount thy horses.  We shall skirmish in open formation with the lancepoints dancing in the sunlight… to the sports.

Ascot Tips

The Ascot card that lies before us is a cracker and I dearly wish I was there.  The spectacular stand, a drop of something nice.  Still even from afar, I can feel that the card is solvable – Let us plunder away!

In the opening juvenile hurdle, I can see there being a mild upset.  The Jonjo horse, Masquerading, surely needs better ground and the current favourite, Handiwork was such a poor flat horse that I am taking his improvement to hurdles with a strong suspicion.  That said, his defeat of Aalim who was a subsequent winner is clearly decent.

Therefore I am investing in the French recruit to the Walford yard, Astre de la Cour,  6/1, which translates as Star of the Court.  The trainer has not had an Ascot runner in a long time and has booked Aspell (1 from 2 rides in the last year for the yard) – I suspect they are hoping for good things!

I skip to the first graded race, the 1.50, a 3 mile mares hurdle.  It is a nicely shaped race where Mickie, 11/8, is the present favourite.  She finished well ahead of Utopie Des Bordes at Kempton and I see little reason for a reversal of that form.  I was surprised to see a drift on the horse and think the main danger would be Highland Retreat who gets the assistance of the magnificent Noel Fehily.

In the 2.25 ( a limited handicap) – I am a big fan of The Skyfarmer who can be backed at 5/1 in a place and 9/2 generally.  What attracts me is the form of Lyvius who my selection beat at Cheltenham.  Lyvius was a winner off his revised mark at Kempton over Christmas and that is a good sign that the higher mark for The Skyfarmer is manageable.  It is worth noting that the pair put a lot of daylight between them and third at Cheltenham.  Irish Saint has been a bit of a disappointment and I suspect he will come good one day.

The 3pm handicap chase is a race in which I can make an argument for several so I will be leaving my stakes light on Grandioso who I hope has not suffered too much from his fall last time out.

The comes bet of the year so far… Sire de Grugy has been a significant improver and quite rightly has the crown of 2m horse to beat (while Sprinter is absent).  You can make a case for Somersby on course form but I simply think that he is very vulnerable to a genuine top class horse.  All you then have to decide is whether Sire de Grugy is that and I do!

Haydock and Naas

You know the tale, so I do not need to explain why I am backing Taquin Du Seuil, 5/6, in the 1.30 at Haydock.  His jumping experience and bare form should give him the measure of these.

I am putting Taquin in a Haydock double with another hottie, Un Temps Pour Tout.  There is a big expectation on this French import having cost the best part of a cool half million.  He was placed in the Grade 1 hurdle that Ptit Zig won at Auteuil having previously won a Grade 3 at the same track – Both efforts in the mud.

In the big race, 2.40, I have every hope that we can get Ptit Zig turned over mind with Melodic Rendezvous, 9/4 – I think this is a classy classy horse and his Newcastle effort was not the right run – I think the ground was key that day and we might see an entirely different prospect here.  The way he picked up Far West at Wincanton was extremely eye-catching and I am having a chunky one.

No bet on their big chase but I think Katenko is the likeliest participant.

Is that what you came here for?  Two odds on tips and a second favourite?  Did you come for tips?  Madness, the Major reminds you once again, that this is barely profitable and always unhinged – My readers are typically regular and expect nothing more than an attempt to land the mothership.

At Naas, we have a great card and Dunguib returns to the racecourse for the first time in three years.  He was once the great new hope, winning his hurdle races so easily he was the Irish hotpot at the opening day of the festival.  He only managed a place that day and a bubble was burst.  I hope keeping him in training is for the right reasons but I cannot find myself tempted to backing him at this price.

No, I wait for the 1.35 and a 11/8 on Sizing Gold.  He looks good, this is a confident selection.

In the football…. I must highlight a good opportunity.  Now the Major has no sponsorship from any firm and never has.  Yet, I would suggest you take Ladbrokes up on their offer to give a free bet to £25 if both teams score and your main bet loses in the Chelsea v Manchester United game.  I fancy Chelsea for this anyway so the 4/5 they offer is decent and my thinking is that for the bet to lose it is either nil nil or Manchester United have to score.  Thus, as long as Chelsea score at some point, the bet pays or you get a free bet.  Shame they do not let you have it in multiples but it is generous enough!

I also like Newcastle to win at West Ham, 8/5, who are poor, do not be fooled by their Cardiff result.  Wigan to win at Doncaster 5/6 and QPR to win at home to Huddersfield 7/10.

The Martin Hill bet is a L31 on Wigan, Chelsea, Sire de Grugy, Sizing Gold and Melodic Rendezvous.

I trust that your dinner is taken in good order and in good company.  May the wine be expensive and plentiful and paid for from merely a few of those larger red notes bandily taut around a core of purple.

Courage, roll those dice.

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