The Saturday 2,000 Guineas Sermon… Courage and roll the dice

Good morning from a glorious Worcestershire scene where the near unblemished sky carries a sole vapour-trail scar.  It zigzags across the higher strata as though the plane that left it led an effected path across the heaven.  First light was cool, as it is at this time of year but soon the brightness came and now the horizon glints and dazzles aggressively and my dislike of it alludes to a few glasses too many.

The Major has little time to hold court this morning but thank goodness I stopped Punchestown when I did.  We were in clover on day one with a good strike rate and a 12/1 winner.  Day two was ugly with a sole 3/1 winner and plenty of shorties getting turned over.  I did not blog for Thursday and Friday and it was divine intervention as my own thoughts turned out to be poisoned feral errors that would only have weakened your bank and put your fine weekend dining in some doubt.  Courage to those who roll the dice today.

The Guineas day has often served me well, I feel good that we will be back to form today.  We also have a monster Scoop 6 to go at – Ah, it is good to be alive.

We shall not dwell in the pulpit this week, No – Let us get straight into the sports.  Suffice to say, I wish on us the fortune of the light brigade, we shall ride hard into the gunners positions, taking fire from all sides in our foolish endeavours but the glory is ours.  C’est magnifique, mais c’est ne pas guerre.

As a final thought – The Major must promote a fine endeavour undertaken by Simon Dawkins who is encouraging us gentleman gamblers to share the wealth of our winnings, or indeed to not bet and make a donation instead all for the good cause of Macmillan.  We all know someone touched by cancer and we all feel better in our hearts and souls for giving some of our own resources to provide better care for those effected by it.

Make a donation, or just give a share of your winnings, quantum is less important than participation.  Click here.

2000 Guineas Tips

What an absolutely cracking Guineas.  We have the main protagonists lining up to settle a fascinating dispute.  The stalls being central, I trust that the jockeys will chart a single course which would be good for all.

Kingman leads the market and, as with most of these, a lot of hype surrounds this horse.  We certainly did not get to see him in the bigger autumn juvenile challenges as he was recovering from ankle surgery.  Thus his key form line to supplement the stable noises is a very impressive victory in the Greenham on reappearance where he fairly demolished a decent field.  His breeding is not as blue-blooded as some of his rivals, he is match fit…

In the UK and Ireland, we have gotten used to Galileo and Montjeu being the stallions of our choicest colts but now there are new players on the scene.  New Approach had a tremendous season and is sure to be bred to better mares as a result.  Plus, Coolmore are importing to race War Front colts and War Command looks an excellent type.

I was really taken with his win in the Coventry and some of his subsequent loss of lustre is explainable.  He gets conditions and the worlds best flat jockey in Ryan Moore and so is not easy to dismiss.

Last season, Toranado stepped up to be a major player for Team Hannon and this year, that flag is flown by Toormore.  He has a lot of support, quite rightly as juvenile champion and has done little wrong.  Breeding does not support him as being the best of the best but we should not be dictated solely by the qualities of the blood.

Shocks in the race do occur, see Mafki.  Normally, they are under-rated European raiders and Noozhoh Canarias is going to have a popular support.  The Major however would give a token chance to Bookrunner at a massive 66/1 (BetVictor) – He was not disgraced in the Prix Djebel and the yard would not be over here for nothing.

The Major though opts for Australia at 4/1 with Coral.  Ballydoyle have been outspoken about this son of Galileo who has clearly being doing his best work off the course.  His form is little to crow about but being the pick of Joseph O’Brien from a yard that has won this classic in four of the last ten runnings, you have to take notice.  He is clearly a derby prospect, probably more than a miler but I am less concerned about that as I think he will have a tremendous lung bursting pace to aim at.

I do not think this will be the popular pick as the ‘thinkers’ will be angling into the other horses with a snazzy line about the ground or a line of form.  Let us not be afraid to be simple though.  Best yard, only Galileo in the race, highly talked of.  Shabash, load the large cannon.

The Monster Scoop6

I ma not going to dwell for long in these waters but thought I would share the single ticket I am entering:

Leg 1 – 2.05 Newmarket – Big Baz

Leg 2 – 2.40 Newmarket – Pearl Secret

Leg 3 – 3.oo Thirsk – Music in the Rain

Leg 4 – 3.30 Goodwood – Pal of the Cat

Leg 5 – 3.40 Thirsk – Off Art

Leg 6 – 3.50 Newmarket – Australia

Our chances of winning are nil if we have not entered.

Saturday Racing

I am looking forward to seeing Annie Power at Punchestown, I thought she was desperately unlucky not to be a winner of the World Hurdle although you can take little away from the winner.  She will slaughter this lot even if she were carrying an extra stone.  Her style of hurdling is a delight to watch, so fast and accurate over the obstacles, a joy to behold and one to look forward to chasing.  1/5 clearly shows that I have simply stated the obvious.

A horse that I would give a chance to at Punchestown is Adriana Des Mottes who fell early at Cheltenham but subsequently won a mares event.  12/1 might be a bit dismissive there.  Guitar Pete is a danger too, especially reunited with Carberry who delivered a peach of a ride at Aintree, yet Tiger Roll looked very good in the Triumph and remains lightly raced and full of top class potential.  3/1 Ladbrokes, get stuck right in!

Goodwood is very much a ‘horses for courses’ track.  In the 2.55 we have a runner that has won three times from three attempts here and it is a strong facet for the Major to punt Magic City at 7/2 with BetVictor.  The reason the course form is so important is that, like Epsom, Goodwood carries a significant camber and you need a runner that has experienced it and enjoys it.

On a Saturday where the Major seeks certainty, Trading Leather at Newmarket goes in at 5/4 (drifting).  The thing is, the horse has proven Group credentials with an Irish Derby win on his CV.  Nothing in this field boasts anything similar and it would be disappointing if we did not get a comfy win here.

The Major brings you the classics and the snippets… Hexham, 6.30; I bet you did not think you would read those words… Mohawk Ridge – I think this is an excellent handicapping mark and am able to draw a line through some of his rivals…. 3/1, get on.

To the football…. Just two selections.

Sunderland at 7/1 are a bet – Their resurgence gives them a squeak at United.  Millwall are 5/4 at home to Bournemouth and the great motivator will have the home team fully wound up.

The Martin Hill bet is Mohawk Ridge, Tiger Roll, Australia and Magic City – Yankee.

I trust that your dinner will be silver service and the finest of cuisine.  A choice wine and choicer company with her flaxen hair curled to the shoulder in a lazy effect.

Courage and roll the dice.

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