Morning from the Major who writes relaxed from a bright Worcestershire scene.
Royal Ascot is over, the maelstrom complete. I came out of yesterday remarkably well, despite only one winner in seven selections on the blog (Pique Sous adv 4/1), of the remaining 6, 4 placed, two at 8s and one at 22s – Those each way multiples added up nicely.
As such, feeling flush, I backed firstly Germany and then Bosnia with reckless abandon and managed to rip a good chunk out of the bank.
To complete the evening reckoning, My lucky 15 first goalscorer which started on Gotze (4s) had carried onto Dzeko (7/2) when his perfectly good goal was ruled out for offside. I believe I swore.
To the Sunday Sports….
Proper summer jumps at Worcester where the ground is good to firm. The simple factors we want are…. Trainer form, Jockey Class and Ground.
In their second race like the favourite Dreamsoftheatre who is trading at a best price 9/4. Jonjo is in decent nick, this Kings Theatre 6yo has shown an aptitude for decent ground and if getting a little quicker over the obstacles he should show enough to feature.
Yet, on these sorts of cards, it often does you well to take a chance and I am scrolling down the prices to 16/1 shot Mr Satco. Sam Twiston Davies riding for Donald McCain, the horse has been off since his hurdling days and a lot of things need to come together but they might.
I can make a case for most runners in the 3.20 and would not rule out a bounce back to form for Gallox Bridge at 14s. Best left alone.
Now in the 3.50 things are interesting and I feel like backing two. Firstly the one that stands out near the head of affairs is Grey Blue at 10/3. Henderson is still firing in winners and although he is against a less exposed rival, he is reliable. However, I said I would back two and that is because of the presences of Secret Beau at 50/1 with Skybet.
It takes some imagination but stick with me. On the negative side of the ledger, this horse has run 21 times on the flat, never further than a mile and outside of some decent efforts as a youngster, never with a lot of credit. On breeding, it is no way a stayer either, being out of champion sprinter Sakhee’s Secret. One effort over the timber at Stratford ended in a predictable heavy defeat. I am not selling this to you am I? The thing I would say is that the horse has done all of it’s best work on rattling ground and for connections to persist tells me either inspiration or idiocy is at play. 50/1… Come on this is Worcester!
John Spearing has another being backed in the 4.20 in Table Bluff, not for me but nice to see some confidence in their other runners when bagging a rank outsider.
The 4.50 is a cracking contest for the card and Vulcanite is an obvious place to start as he is clearly benefiting from the wind op which has seen him bounce back to form. He would be my pick but the jockey change has not filled me with confidence and I shall look elsewhere.
Barizan is an old favourite and he looked much better on soft at Haydock last time, he is a feasible 8/1 shot back on firmer ground. Yet he will be harassed on the sharp end so I say no. One of those likely to be fighting up front with him is As I Am who I do prefer on the grounds of trainer form and the yards record at Worcester 4/9 in last two years.
Ballinalacken has some positives at a big 20/1 and Detroit Red although hammered by the handicapper for a Market Rasen win, is being backed again.
With lots of possible winners, I shall keep the interest reasonable but am siding with Bobowen who has a very patchy record, comes from the tiny Grand National winning stable of Dr Newland, has assistance from Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle and is adaptable to running tactics having won from the front, from chasing the leaders or from being held up. Fingers crossed, Sam will see the obvious (that there are 3/4 willing to cut each others throats here) and settle him in, turn him off until the last three furlongs…. It is easy being a jockey!
2.15 Adroit 5/4
4.15 Naoise 6/4
4.45 Port Merrion 11/10
5.15 Ebeyina 4/6
You don’t want explanations do you? Yankee… Get yourself involved!
Courage, roll the dice.