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Thursday Racing Tip… Gowran Park Thyestes Chase 16/1 and 12/1 Selections

The Majors Wednesday tip ran into a place but was not good enough to take the spoils of war.  I returned to take stock of the Thursday cards and there is some good action in Ireland and the UK.

Tinakellylad for the Major in the Thyestes

The top action is at Gowran Park where there is a £52k Chase and a £26k Hurdle race which features the likes of Voler la Vedette and Zaidpour in what promises to be a warm encounter. 

It is the chase contest with 18 runners and a beautiful handicap conundrum worthy of the finest racing minds, that attracts the Majors eye though.  A fiendish puzzle, wrapped in an enigma, coded and written down, dismantled and disturbed, only those whose minds can reassemble the fragments dare to assess the eighteen runners.  Dare dip thy crucible in the boiling seething pot?

Sadly you only have the Major as your guide.  I am only an amateur sherpa in these high climes but I come with unbridled enthusiasm, relentless optimism and an idea of the winner.

3.05 Gowran – The Thyesetes Chase

There is a very strong trend in the Thyestes that the Major is using as the basis of his tips, as I feel two are worthy of backing. 

Of the last ten winners, only one horse (last years Siegemaster) carried a burden in excess of eleven stone.  In fact, 70% of winners carried 10 stone 2 lbs or less.  A featherweight is what we are looking for.

I have run the usual calculations and have the probabilities in the Majors eyes for each horse.  Willie Mullins has four runners in a race he has taken with National winner Hedgehunter as well as Homer Wells, all four warrant respect.  Two of them Shakervilz and Some Target sit in the top four of the betting.

Start Me Up would also be of clear interest and he heads the market at 8/1.  Some good bumper and hurdles form and a warm up race over too short a distance actually adds up to an interesting profile.  The price is skinny enough but more money could be significant.

First reserve Tullintain is of some interest to the Major if he gets a run but since we are after something to back, I am going to suggest a 16/1 shot.

The Major has settled on two horses to back for wins.

Tinakellylad is the first selection at 16/1, the Mouse Morris trained eight year old.  There is absolutely nothing wrong with this horses best form having beaten Kempes as a novice.  He has had some problems having been bought down in the Munster National before being pulled up twice.  However last time out at Cork, he returned to a better line of form.

I am backing him to run a decent race off 10st 4lbs, with a further 5lb pull from his worthy jockey A P Heskin.

The second animal is 12/1 Adams Island who gets a Barry Geraghty ride.  His last run was also a turning point in a decent race at Leopardstown.  He has had money come for him in races this year that he has flopped at, this is the second time Geraghty has taken the ride and the Major feels a big run is expected.  12/1 William Hill is the best price.

Have two slices and thank me later.

Midweek Horseracing Tips – A couple from Cheltenham plus tips for The Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket – The Majors Wednesday Selections

Nell Gwyn.

Now far be it for the Major to criticise Charles II but old Nell was hardly a looker, you could have done better your majesty.

Shabash!  Thanks to a recent rich vein of form, the Major is having the best month of the year so far. 

Cheltenham has a card tomorrow that includes a graded race, there must be a couple of money making opportunities….

Good ground is a consideration, the track is likely to ride fast. 

3.55 Cheltenham Grade 2 Silver Trophy sponsored by Matersons

Poquelin is an odds on favourite for the big race of the day and it is clear to see why.  Based on his festival run, he has the form in the book and going for the champion trainer with Ruby over to ride, Pokey will be all the rage.  Cleanish jumper, fairly reliable, course and distance winner in December in a better race.  His handicap mark of 170 means he is the only horse to race off his proper mark.

What is not to like.  All of this is accounted for in a 4/6 on price.

The Major seeks a bit of value elsewhere though. 

Regular followers know that the Major has a soft spot for horses with good form in the books where I can make a case for some sort of recovery.

The way this race shapes I simply do not think Holmwood Legend or De Boitron who both showed decent Cheltenham festival form are classy enough to trouble Pokey.

One that fits a profile I like is Copper Bleu.  Let us not forget that this is a Jewson winner.  In receipt of a stone and a half on ground he will like and with the admirable Richard Johnson on board…. 10/1 is a fair price.  Take a slice and put it in the reverse forecast with Pokey if you feel brave.  You know what to do.

Lets leave Cheltenham and have a look at the big race at HQ.

4.10 Newmarket – The Nell Gwyn Stakes

HQ kicks off the Craven meeting with a lovely card including the group rated Nell Gwyn Stakes.

I am a fan of selecting flat horses at this stage of the season who have had a prep run.  Fitness both physical and mental is more assured.  That said to win a Nell Gwyn you need a touch of class.  Those that have the suitable class are Sing Softly, Maqaasid and Sweet Cecily.

The favourite is Sing Softly, an O’Brien trained horse who boasts the best form having won a listed race in April at the Curragh on heavy ground.  Here lies the problem.  Sing Softly has never run on ground with the word good in it, let alone firm.  The stallion record does not fill you with confidence either. 

I am not saying the 11/4 shot cannot win but I prefer to look elsewhere.

A few trainers have been sending out early winners but surely the early season form of the Bailey yard needs noting.  They have had 5 winners from 9 runners in the last two weeks.  He sends out Strictly Pink with Cathy Gannon on board who seems to be a go to jockey (35% strike rate in last two years).  Interesting thrown in at this far superior level but surely going to be outgunned. 

The one the Major settles on is Ladies are Forever.  8/1 is a good price for a horse with sharp sprinting form in the book from a decent 2yo cv.  It will not mind the ground. 

Sweet Cecily could be an improver at 3.  Elshabakiya looks short of the required form. 

5.05 Cheltenham Novice Chase

The third midweek horseracing tip sees the Major return to Prestbury Park.  There is a half decent novice chase in the penultimate event.

It really looks like it is between Adams Island and Balthazars Gift.   

Of the two, the Major is going to side with Adams Island.  I cannot help but feel that the Captain Chris form is stronger than anything Balthazars Gift offers.  Tipping up Adams Island is also partly due to the return to the saddle of A P McCoy.  He is 29% for this trainer, it looks like a serious run is planned.

Magical Legend is not without chance.

May your bets be blessed by the good lord of gambling.