Tag Archives: american trilogy

Midweek Hotpots – Tuesday Tips from the Major – Fontwell, Bath and Pontefract

Good evening from the Major who is horizontal in the hope of a swift recovery for an injured knee.  The mind is unaffected and the sharp sense of adventure leads me to a foray into the Tuesday cards… saddle up young follower, your charger carries your sheepskin, the leathers are clean, your tunic red, bright and pristine; your sabre shining as ready for parade.  To the cards and the riches, fortunes and mysteries of a new day.

Steep, sharp, camber......... Try and pick those with course form at Bath, Fantasy Fry for the Major

Bath 7pm

It is nice when the clocks go back and the evening meets come thick and fast.  Denizens of our creed of gambling men know I prefer the national hunt season but watching the 7.50 from a sun bathed Windsor tonight, one was struck by how simple it would be to sit at one of those tables on the trackside and enjoy a nice Sancerre as the sun sets and one of those Berkshire strumpets tends to wanton fun with a look of utter nothingness in her wonderfully vacant eyes.

None of that has anything to do with the winner of the 7pm at Bath tomorrow night.  Although I hope the good citizens of Bath have the weather too as well as the strumpets.

Fantasy Fry is the 13/2 selection.  I like the fact it is more certain to act on the ground than many.  I also like the fact it is the only one in the field with a course win.  There are some tracks where that is important.  Cheltenham, Southwell and Bath being some.  The extended 5f sprint at Bath can be carnage.  A downhill stretch some on a camber, a tight left hand bend a furlong and a half from home and an uphill finish, I like horses that have proven they can handle it.

3.10 Pontefract

Hoof It at 4/1 is a cracking bet.  In a field of monkeys, this is the potential improver.  Not many are guaranteed to like conditions, this one seems to like a bit of rattle under his feet.  Fallon booked for a second time, get stuck in, load the thunderous cannon, let it boom, let it boom!

2.50 Fontwell

American Trilogy is the forecast favourite and while Fontwell is a left handed track which will suit his sometimes violent digressions to the left when jumping obstacles, I think his tendencies hides deeper issues – For the Major one to watch. 

Fruity O Rooney is being asked to shoulder a fair old burden.   Reliable.

Swansbrook won an easy return to action, as you would expect him to and with that confidence booster under his belt, I put it to you that he is the likeliest sort.

Seven bets to cover Fantasy Fry, Hoof It and Swansbrook in singles, doubles and a treble?  You know what Jesus would do.

I have a few days worth of bets to add to the records, forgive the sloppiness.

The Results: Sandown

Horse Race Bet Stake Price Winnings Result Running Total
              -£41
American Trilogy 1.30 Win £30.00 1.98 £0.00 LOST -£71
Kawagino 2.05 Place £2.00 4.8 £0.00 LOST -£73
Kawagino 2.05 Win £2.00 26 £0.00 LOST -£75
Tasheba 2.05 Win £8.00 5 £0.00 LOST -£83
Hoo La Baloo 3.10 Win £3.00 7.4 £0.00 LOST -£86
Hoo La Baloo 3.10 Place £3.00 2.7 £0.00 LOST -£89
Zacharova 3.10 Win £3.00 15 £0.00 LOST -£92
Zacharova 3.10 Place £3.00 4.7 £0.00 LOST -£95
Hennessy 3.10 Win £3.00 14 £42.00 WIN -£56
Hennessy 3.10 Place £3.00 3.9 £11.70 WIN -£47
Tarten Bearer 4.15 Win £15.00 2.5 £37.50 WIN -£25
Halicarnassus 4.15 Win £2.00 29 £0.00 LOST -£27
Halicarnassus 4.15 Place £6.00 6.7 £0.00 LOST -£33

American Trilogy clearly looked over the top – A big bet was placed against him today and in hindsight it was foolish, the two runs at Cheltenham and Aintree had clearly had their toll and he finished behind weaker horses.

Kawagino didnt manage to turn any form around but Tasheba did run well finishing a close up third – A good prospect for next season.

In the big race, two selections flopped, Hoo La Baloo pulled up with something amiss.  Venetia Williams horse never got into it and Hennessy looked a forlorn hope 5f out when hard driven.  AP McCoy worked his miracles again though and got him up in the dieing strides… astonishing.

Tarten Bearer ran very well to take the Group 3 race and looks well set for a strong season.

Saturday at Sandown

Saturdays Sandowns Flutters

1.35 Sandown Bet 365 Hurdle

American Trilogys win at Cheltenham was quite impressive and as such I can’t see past him against what looks fairly modest opposition.  He has run well enough on good ground for GD/FM not to be a concern.

The long lay off Sporazene has had probably would not be an inconvenience as he has won first time out on two previous seasons and so goes well fresh,

I can’t have Sporazene but would take Songe for the forecast.

Advice: American Trilogy to win £30 1.98

 

2.05

Spanish Conquest is of huge interest after a three timer.  This horse clearly likes firmer surfaces and should run a race.  It is also set for a breathing op ion the summer and I think it might just find this a bit too much.  It has had a month off the track but has to carry a serious hike into this.

On a three timer is the four year old Tasheba – The stronger of the two representing the in form Henderson yard it looks a decent prospect for next season.  Its a long time since it ran a bad race.

Kawagino is the oldest horse in the field and despite having a poor strike rate put is a few good shifts.  Comfortable held up or on the pace the horse has plenty of big field experience and won’t mind the ground.   

If Seven is my number ran to form from just two months ago he could well take this.  Two substandard runs are difficult to look beyond though.  If there was money I would follow it but otherwise best left alone.

Advice £2 win Kawagino 26 £2 place 4.8 and £8 win at 5s on Tasheba

Kalahari King on the surface looks tough to oppose, its more than 2 years and 13 runs since it last unplaced, a model of consistency.  It doesn’t look over raced, a big chance.

The champion trainer turns up mob handed with three of the seven runners and it is not straight forward picking the best chance.  On jockey booking you would go with Twist Magic who running to best form would certainly put these to bed.  However, he is not certain to put in a clean round and has blundered away chances recently.  However before falling while running against Masterminded in December, he was certainly putting in a good show.

Mahogany Blaze looks an optimistic entry as he has not managed to beat several of these rivals previously – Would require a big step up

Advice: Risk taken on Twist Magic £6 win 4.4

 

Bet 365 Chase3.10

Who knows what New Little Bric decides to do – He could well win a few races like this but if he does he won’t win me any money.

Zacharova has ground concerns but is due to go up the weights shortly.  Venetia Williams is in fine touch and at the bottom of the weights it could defy its 15/1 price.. interesting

Hoo la Baloo has shown decent form in its time and has been laid out for this race.    Paul Nicholls has had his best ever season and with Ruby up, HLB could be a justified favourite.

LacDoudal won this in 2006!  His trainer also won in last year – A nice looking grey, maybe the return to 3m+ will see him return to form but I think it might have fallen out with the game.

Church Islands second in the Irish Grand National on Easter Monday may have taken a bit out of him but on top form he may run well.

The horse of interest at a nice price is Hennessy – A lightly raced eight year old, on pick of its form it would go well here.  Not the most assured jumper but the booking of AP looks significant.

Advice Back £3 ew on Hoo la Baloo 7.4 / 2.7 Zacharova 15 / 4.7 and Hennessy 14 / 3.9

 

3.45 Group 2 Mile

The switch to the flat makes this a great days racing at Sandown, particularly as there are quality flat and jumps horses in action.  Perhaps star of the day is Paco Boy a very impressive winner of 7 of 11 starts including a three length defeat of Natagora. Hannon has taken 3 of the last 5 starts – Paco Boy will be fitter for his recent outing and would be the selection if he was certain of lining up.

Advice: No bet due to uncertainty of runners

 

4.15 Group 3

Assuming Sir Michael Stout, who is in form, has Tarten Bearer wound up for his reappearance he should go well – His derby second looks fine in this context.

Pipedreamer looks to me like he needs racing to stay in form and I wouldn’t trust this one first time up.

At the bigger prices Halicarnassus looks a decent bit of small w big p value.

Advice Tarten Bearer win £15 2.5 Halicarnassus 29 £2 and place £6 4.7