Tag Archives: anne of kiev

The Saturday Sermon – Ayr Gold Cup Horseracing Tips, Newbury Mill Reef Tips, Premier League Tips

Good morning from Defford, Pershore, Worcestershire, where the Major has been at the good coffee for many hours solving the riddles of the Gold and Silver Cups at Ayr.

Anne of Kiev…. 40/1 Shabash

Those sort of handicaps are manna from heaven for Pricewise and the Major has tried to take an angle on the Ayr Gold Cup. A contributing factor in the punters favour is the softening ground, recent wet weather has done us happy gambling few, a favour.

The Major always finds in unsettling to talk to people who do not gamble and almost seem allergic to it. The thrill of a sporting chance selected and backed with your own money is as close to god as you can get. The moment before the event, when your thought and reason remains untested, the scintillating opportunity yet you feel certain you are right, your heart flutters but your hand is steady. You have played the event out in your head many times over and visualised the result.

Then the event itself, you watch your horse travelling smoothly, your jockey motionless, like he were made of china. Approaching the business end, the leader is flat-out and your man has still to press the button, you come upsides, yet from the back a challenger, where did he come from. Thank god yours is a Mark Johnston tough as nails handicapper, he digs deep to find extra reserves and then in the flash of the line…. you are beaten by a short head. Unbelievable.

Christ. The heart is pumping. You lost your wager, you were wrong, by fractions. Yet, where else could you have felt that moment, that instant in which it seemed like you were touching the face of god. Gambling, a sin, then why did the good Lord make it feel so exhilarating.

Gambling is not a sin, vice or bad habit. Neither is not for fools. It is reserved for us people who understand that we drift by on the river of life just the once and we must grab hold of whatever good that floats by our way. It is good to be alive, make sure you feel it. Today bet with stakes that hurt and reward.

The Ayr Gold Cup – 3.20pm

The two big handicaps at Ayr on Friday have done little to provide a strong view on any draw bias. Both had a mix of stalls finishing the places and while stall 3 won in both instances, the way the Bronze Cup played out, it was not evident that either side had an advantage.

That said, it seemed being on a side was an advantage as few horses travelled well up the middle of the track.

The Gold Cup and the Silver Cup are puzzles, written in code, contained in an enigma which is just a figment of a madman’s mind. There is a lot of guess-work going on but there are things to grip onto.

Some trainers have a much better record in this race and it is worth following Fahey (if you have a clue which runner is fancied most!) but much more profitable following a certain Mr Nicholls, the Sprint King.

Given his awesome track record in the race, I am going to take a super keen interest in his horses. I also don’t particularly want the older horses. 4/5 years old is ideal for me, that’s my Sprint Cup specialist. Throw in a soft ground ready animal and we can whittle the mass of runners down to a few possibilities.

Tajneed will love conditions but at 8 is not the profile of the winner. He also falls into a category of horses I think are hampered, those with a weight of more than 9 stone, 2lbs. Only one horse has won off a higher weight than that in the last fifteen years.

There may be 27 runners but a soft ground horse, progressive and with a bit of big field experience and you have the winner with Fahey and Nicholls runners.

Mayson is a very interesting runner, particularly with the booking of Hanagan the odds on favourite to defend his champion jockey crown. Entitled to need a come back run, Mayson looks well handicapped. We also knows he goes OK when he gets his toe in. 18/1 is a fair price and the Majors only reservation is his relative youth and low miles on the clock. I suspect he is well handicapped but in a race of this size, you would like a horse who has a bit more experience.

Mayson is drawn 5 and while I want one low, I want one high too. So I am also opting for Anne of Kiev. At 40/1 this one is a bit of an outsider but the only key factor I do not like is the age, 6. I think the form is solid enough, particularly that which ties Anne of Kiev into Deacon Blues in the Wokingham. She also has big race experience and thrives in big fields.

So my Ayr Gold Cup Strategy is Mayson drawn low and Anne of Kiev drawn high.

2.30 Newbury Mill Reef Stakes

The Mill Reef stakes has an interesting look to it and much of your view on the winner has to be taken from your assessment of Casper Netscher.

While the Major holds the form in high enough regard, I am conscious that this horse has been on the go a lot. He is not the only horse in the race that has had a busy campaign.

The last couple of winners had a maximum of three prep runs and I think I would like to find a more lightly raced individual.

The one I am opting for is Redact. The case is that it is a Hannon horse and once again the master of the juvenile season has had a blinding year. He buys so many horses to train as juvenile winners you have to admire the yards philosophy. Richard Hughes picks this one ahead of Crown Dependency and there is little wrong with that horse.

Jockey selection was important for the Major here. Redact is a horse that looked entirely progressive until last time out. After breaking badly and racing freely, the horse never got into it and was 8l behind Gerfalcon.

Hughes sticking with the horse tells me that was not his running. 9/1, have a slice and thank me later.

To the sports.

At the start of the season, I drew up my own handicap score for the premier league, blind to the industry edition calculated by the Racing Post team. I found that the teams I wanted to be with were Man United (I felt they would win by a clearer margin), Newcastle and Stoke. My teams so far have done me proud. I wanted to get QPR, Villa, Blackburn and Arsenal. Again, I feel I had this right although Villa are outperforming my expectation.

QPR pretty much bought a new squad on transfer deadline day and that makes reading their chances away at Wolves difficult. Normally I would opt for a home win but with players like Wright-Phillips in the QPR team… well who knows. That project could still go up in flames.

Given that one of my positive teams, Stoke are away at one of my negatives, Sunderland and are 23/10, you would think I would be racing to get a bet down. The truth is that I would jump at it if Stoke had not had a hard European trip mid-week. Off putting.

I have four football bets this weekend.

1. Manchester United to bt Chelsea 10/11 – Man United have looked devastating in the EPL this season and Chelsea do not have it together yet, I would be very surprised if United were not to overcome them at home.

2. Bolton to beat Norwich 5/6 – Again a nearly evens price about a home team I fully expect to do the business. Norwich although they looked decent enough against the Albion on Saturday… are not that good.

3. Manchester City to win at Fulham 8/13 – City have looked very very good this season and an average Fulham team should not hold them.

4. Swansea to beat the Majors West Brom 9/5 – Bottom line is that Swansea are half useful and West Brom looked shaky at Norwich. A better team would have beaten them. Swansea can be that team.

Collect your winnings today with a smile reserved for the enemy that has a touch of all-knowing. You will need the bundle for dinner.

May that dinner be served on fine china and come with exceptionally fine in-season ingredients. For company take the one you have your eye on with that simple, almost plain but pretty look, she brings a flashing smile to light her canvas on which god painted a work which was outstanding for its simplicity not loud in it’s glory. Perfectly nice and there is nothing wrong in that, an innocence that is sweet too, genuinely a lovely person. They all want their fun though, mark the Majors words. When the bill comes, tip well, no recession, you can afford it.

Courage and shuffle those cards.

KABOOM The Majors Saturday Service – Horseracing Tips – Racing Post Chase, Kempton; The Eider at Newcastle – Lingfield – Premier League Tips

Good morning from wet Pershore where the pluviometer indicates significant precipitation yet the warm coffee musters good feeling.  The Major is ready for Saturdays action.

Fistral Beach, named after the legendary Newquay surfing mecca

Our February profits have sunk to just 8%.  A few things to remember.  The Major is transparent, you can see everything I advised by following the tabs in the menu bar above.  As a man that has to work full time, I am proud to return any profit, my goal is 20%.  If you include the bookmakers over-round, that puts me 40% ahead of the market at any given time, a worthy and challenging target.

It is also a sign of what life is like for an amateur punter.  It shows why you have to keep perspective about winning and losing.  Returning those profits, if I stay disciplined will mean that not only do I get to enjoy my horseracing tipping hobby but it will be profitable over time, even to the slim margin I suggest.

Consider the roulette table, playing straight numbers the house pays 36/1.  Yet there is a 37th number.  This gives the house just a 2.7% advantage.  As Einstein, who had a lot to say about roulette commented ‘No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking’. 

I am aiming for my own judgement / pricing supremacy over the enemy to be 30-40%, thats a serious improvement in judging sporting outcomes, a significant house advantage to the Major.

Should you wish to criticise or congratulate my performances, you can leave your comments, I welcome them, encourage them and enjoy them.  Should you wish to know the very moment a post is issued, then sign up to the email service in the left hand column or twitter @tdl123.  Should you wish to complain that most of my tips do not come in, please do not read on, the Major writes for those who understand the principle of value.  The messages I get tell me the mysterious readers (150 last Saturday) are a positive bunch, generally encouraging me back to the fray when things go wrong. 

In return, I will not butter up my results or advice, I will not offer aftertiming or over celebrate a result, I also ask you not to expect too much.  Be there to celebrate the 22/1 winners as well as to understand that 4 from 5 bets will not come home.   Rest assured however, that considered punters like ourselves are the enemies scourge.

Once more we saddle our chargers, sheepskin cover and blinkers and prepare to face the devious enemy on the field of battle.  He has priced his markets, I have researched my angles into the value.  I offer to you, free of charge, no strings attached, my version of the Saturday value tips. 

To war, my friends.  Let us return to the breach, or we shall be clogging up the walls with our gambling dead.

3pm – The Racing Post Chase – Kempton

Just as the football kicks off, so does the race of the day.  This looks like a cracking renewal of the race with many of last years protagonists sizing each other up again.  Conditions will play a part (Newcastle goes ahead, Chepstow might not) but Sandown will get a dousing mid to late morning and then dry up, I am going to assume soft but sticky.

The Major has been a long-term follower of Fistral Beach and the horse continues to cost me money.  That said, I expected his chances in todays race to be better advertised but seemingly, he has become a little friendless.  The money is piling in for Nacarat, (who is the Pricewise selection) and this must offer some value elsewhere, including the Majors selection.  This is the thinking…

The RP Chase is one of the better handicaps at this stage of the season.  We have seasoned King George placers, young up and comers as well as a few old monkeys trying to revive some sort of form.   The winner is normally an already known strong performer.  As it a handicap, we are looking for one either improving or on the career plateau.  This has not gone to a true outsider in some time. 

Nacarat has probably shown the best class in the field.  As a result he gets top weight.  He is well weighted though if you consider his efforts in the 09 and 10 renewals of the race.  Pricewise has to be well-respected, he is certainly better than me.  That does not mean that you changes your mind though when your line of thought was different though.  It is these differences that you need to exploit to find the elusive value.  I cannot help but think that at age ten, we know everything about Nacarat and I am not sure rain is going to suit his chances, he would be fine on genuine soft but I think the likely tacky stuff Kempton will serve up may not suit.. 

Remember, we are looking for something rated just short of very good.  Perhaps 145ish.  The horses that brings into focus are:

Tatenen, Free World, Quinz, Bakbenscher, Razor Royale and I am going to throw in my personal horse to follow, Fistral Beach.

I ruled out Mostly Bob who is interesting but Johnson deserted in favour of Quinz and although he said it was a tight decision, I think Mostly Bob might find things happening a bit too quickly today, although O’Brien in the saddle is a favoured jockey for the Major and he looks like he will appreciate a right-handed track, this seems to be too much of a step up at this stage. 

Both Quinz and Mostly Bob also get lines through them due to trainer form.  Just 1 win from the last 25 runners for Hobbs does not convince you that his string are in top-notch form, thus they are overlooked.

Ringaroses looks suspiciously well handicapped but you need more than that for a RP chase win, you need proven quality and recent form and that is not there for Ringaroses.

The horses well suited to conditions in the Majors view are Hey Big Spender (who I think will struggle to cart weight just 1lb short of Nacarat around), Fistral Beach and Bakbenscher. 

Before I make comment on the couple I have it down to, a word for Razor Royale.  Twiston Davies will have him tuned up and I am sure this is his possible moment in the sun this season.  That said, I am unsure a repeat of the previous battle with Nacarat is certain.

For the Major, there are two of clear interest in the market.  Bakbenscher and Fistral Beach.

Followers of Fistral Beach have lost a lot of money backing him to win races – He has been a beaten favourite more often than anything else in the race.  I find it interesting then that champion trainer Nicholls still comments today that ‘I think Fistral Beach has a lot in his favour, he has a nice weight and is on a fair mark.’

It is not often that Mr Nicholls proclaims he has one in and the Major has listened. 

Fistral beach is 2 from 4 on soft and I think that is where the ground will go.  Although he has only tried 3m once, I think he will get it well and the breathing op he had in the summer seemed to have worked wonders.  Nicholls looks set tot have this as the target, this looks like a champion trainer special to me.

Bakbenscher is 3 from 5 on soft and I cannot ignore him either.  He could be the fly in the ointment.  I just don’t trust his jumping enough for this although if King has straightened that out, he could be a major threat.

Fistral Beach for the Major and I really like this one, so lump in for the win.  13/2 at the moment with Hills but I suspect with Nacarat clearly fancied everywhere but here, that price may drift.

3.15pm The Eider, Newcastle

4m 1f around Newcastle when it is bottomless is more than a stamina test it is an insane non stop energy sapping war of attrition.  This really will be a race that will suit a careful deliberate jumper.  We might only get two / three finishers so a huge priced outsider that would definitely get round may not be the worse selection ever either… 

That said, there are only two horses in the race who have won at the distance.  Comply or Die, the Murphy national hero horse who was the Majors first ever Grand National winner; is one.

The other is the selection, Belon Gale.  This sort fits the bill perfectly and to be honest I would take a slice of the National antepost too .  11/2 is generally available.  The Northumberland National it won last time stepping up beyond 3m for the first time was a significant step up in form, this looks like the National plot horse for the Howard Johnson team. 

Minella Boys could be a threat but the Sussex National while requiring a staying type, is not the same extreme test as this. 

Have a slice and send me the postcard.

The Other Horseracing Tips

With the two big races out of the way, let us review a couple of other fancies. 

Back to Sandown, the Majors betting resolutions dictated that you should not get too stuck in to novice / juvenile types. 

That said, the Henderson horse, Molotof, looks very interesting in the opener at Sandown (1.55).  It is second favourite to a Nicholls horse, Tonic Mellysse, but incredibly the ownership is the same.  The Munir clan look to have sourced two good sorts from France.  The reason I like the second of the two is that Henderson clearly targets some of his better novices (from his embarrassment of riches) at this race.  Previous winners include two of Hendersons Champion Hurdle sorts in Punjabi and Binocular.

That must be a good indicator that this is one of the better novices in an outstanding yard and thus, 10/3 Bet365 is a must bet price for the Major.

3.35 Kempton – Pullyourfingerout could win this grade 2.

Toubab has been the subject of a talking down from the yard and while I really respect Celtus (again a Munir owned horse), I think there will plenty here trying to cut each others throats.  If AP McCoy can get pullyourfingerout to settle, it is well worth a bet that he can pick these off in the home straight.  10/1 generally available.  The Powell horses are in fine order (31% strike rate the last two weeks).  Smash into this one.

At Lingfield, the 2.10 Blue Square Sprint Series Final is a 6f affair that is a tasty conundrum.  nothing appeals more than Qadar whose change of home seems to have lit up the horse.  I am certain a 5lb rise will not stop this one … 6/1 Bet365 is a serious mistake.  While Qadar may have fallen from grace, the new stable seem to have resparked some passion and he is still 23lbs inferior to the height of his racing mark.  Artic Lynx is a danger to all looking for a hat-trick and 100% record at Lingfield.

Duff is the class act in the Lingfield 3.10 and the Major has backed Hitchens many times in quality races like this listed affair.  I have to say that Anne of Kiev would have carried the dough but stall 1 is a nightmare.  The one the Major plumps for is rank outsider, Elna Bright.  33/1 with Bet 365,   trainer form a slight concern but visor fitted and a sharper effort last time out give this one a small shout, 33/1 it is not.

To the sports fields of Britain…..

I always seem to back teams against my own club West Brom, I promise it is not some sort of self-abuse, I just think Albion are there for the taking.  The last two home games, our opposition has been 3/1 for the win and both ended in score draws.  I maintain this line on Albion being lesser value to Stoke today where you can back the home team at an incredible EVENS with Hills.  Get stuck in, load the large cannon and KABBBOOOOOOOMMMM! Although the Major will not celebrate, it is like scoring against an old club, it is not the done thing – Martin I promise this is not a wind up.

Victor Chandler have lost their minds offering Nottingham Forest at 2/1 to win in south London.  Millwall are alright but nowhere as good as Forest who are quietly going about their business in an impressive style.  The squad is big enough to cope with the current injury list, I want them on my side today.

Bolton look overpriced too at 14/5 to win at St James Park. Sturridge has added an extra dimension to Bolton who are in with a far better chance than that of picking up three points.

Equally Sunderland at 4/1 to win at Goodison is a must bet for the Major.  Everton may be missing Cahill too which is a significant blow, they are a really hot and cold team where Sunderland have earned their Europa League chasing position.

In the Rugby, I think the French will hunker down and make it a tight game at Twickenham.  This makes the first try scorer bet on Ashton a no bet despite the appeal that the young gun clearly has. 

I prefer to back Italy with a plus ten handicap mark against Wales at evens (Bet 365) – This is normally a close encounter and despite the drubbing last time out, I think this is a decent Italy team, home advantage could see them win today without the need for the handicap reassurance.

Being smacked around the pitch by the Dutch is not a good warm up when your next ODI is against Tendulkar and Sehwag.  1/2 on for India who should beat England comfortably.

The NAP has to be Fistral Beach at 13/2 – He has carried my money too often without return, he will come good today.

The lucky 15 will be Fistral Beach, Molotof, Belon Gale and Notts Forest – That should pay for Christmas!

William Hill Offer

Now before you start thinking, has the Major sold out, please understand that I have no affiliation to any bookmaker and earn no income from this site.

However, a word must be said today for William Hill.  they are offering a £25 free bet on sign up (fairly standard I hear you say) PLUS a £30 free bet for using the Racing Post Iphone / Android app.

This must be a go for it scenario.  Sign up an account with £30, you know they are going to give you a £25 free bet.  then go for the app too and place your bet through it.  You have to email in to confirm it but you will get £55 of free bets to your original £30 stake. 

Hills are best price on the NAP too!  Have a chunky slice of that and thank me at tea time.

Tonight, I suggest Game Pie.  A hearty ale to accompany.  Try the Butty Bach from the Wye valley – Light, tasty and refreshing.  Throw a log on the fire as the evening draws in, sit content, take your dog to the pub and allow him to lie on the flagstone floor, throw him the odd scratching. 

When you feel that wad of notes in your pocket, smile and order the good brandy, the Major is happy for you.  Don’t consider this the comeback, we were never gone.