The York Dante meeting threw up a terrific race today in which Carlton House took the feature in quite eye catching style. Were we watching the derby winner? The Major thinks not.
I will definitely be in the minority but I felt that Carlton House got first run on Seville who seemed to peck into him and lose momentum. Given that Seville is definitely going to be the Ballydoyle second string, then the Queens runner is no certainty.
The Major needs to post a significant weekend win and I desperately need to update the records which are now many weeks out of date. The tardiness will stop this weekend.
I have been looking at the York card tomorrow seeking a winner to boost the weekend fighting fund.
The Yorkshire Cup looks like a solvable puzzle.
I like Asker Tau – This one won at Ascot on seasonal reappearance with the Major in attendance. This is tougher. That said, Asker has a great strike rate and is the sort that may be a wafer thin slice short of being top class but is consistent, likes a fight and will exploit weakness in others. In this field, that last facet could be all important as there are some sorts that are Group One quality and Folkestone seller in the space of two races! Tregoning is 3 winners from 5 runners in the last fortnight – Each way banker at 6/1.
Native Ruler for the on fire Cecil team has certainly got the best chance. The horse missed all of 2010 – I would be a bit worried that it might bounce but it certainly seems a better horse at 5 than 3. Cecil took this race last year with Manifest – Everyone loves Henry but I am not convinced that Native Ruler is the answer although it is tough to leave him out, especially when piloted by Tom Queally.
Duncan has not had the best of luck – Both the Arc effort and the Goodwood run saw him hampered badly. Maybe he creates his own luck but the Major is relatively forgiving – Looks classy. Gelded over the winter is a little off-putting, probably more so for Duncan than I. The 3 length defeat to Harbinger is superb. Harbinger was going to be an Arc winner until the life threatening injury, clearly Duncan has some class.
The other significant runner is Manighar for Luca Cumani. Luca doesn’t take pot shots in races like this and both form and jockey booking create the impression that Manighar will be involved. It is hard to assess some of the Aussie form and the record suggests that this one can find a way of losing.
Electrolyser has two ways of running. He seems more likely to offer the poor version than the good and is not one the Major would trust.
1. Take the jockey booking on Manighar as significant and back it – Overruled – Form inconsistent, at this level there is no right to assume the jockey booking is that significant
2. Back the consistent Asker Tau – He clearly loves the ground and has a great attitude – If stepping up then he could win, I am less sure but an each way certainty
3. Native Ruler all in – Cecil / Queally group form, looking better than ever back from injury, bounce factor a concern – Of significant interest.
4. Bet like a man on Duncan – This is the call. I trust that the gelding has focussed this classy animal. He was good enough to win this on his Harbinger form, any development and he can go in again.
Duncan 2pts win, Asker Tau 1pt ew, Native Ruler 1pt win, .25 pts on 6 stakes combination f/c, same number of stakes and size on tricast.
Hold thy nerve young warriors. Duncan will see us well. To quote from King Duncan….
Stars, hide your fires:
Let not light see my black and deep desires:
The eye wink at the hand; yet let that be
Which the eye fears, when it is done, to see