Tag Archives: best terms

The Saturday Service – The Majors Horseracing Tips – Newmarket and Ripon… The Cambridgeshire, Sun Chariot, Chevely Park, Royal Lodge plus Premier League Tips

Welcome from the Major to another fine Saturday of sporting action with some of the finest racing around.  Coffee and concentration has given the Major an edge, one that can only be satisfied by silencing the enemy and winning this round of action.

Timepiece is the 11/2 NAP of the day

So the Major calls you to arms, put on your red coat.  Sharpen your point and be prepared to pick off the enemy with no remorse, he offers you none in return.  We will be ready, just you, me, the other followers, our Brown Bess rifles and 40 rounds per man.

Remember that thin red line of the 93rd Balaclava and remember it never breaks even to infantry and horse charging downhill.  Our indomitable spirit is the same, unbreakable like Sir Colin Campbell the pit bull leader who loved a scrap.

Let us revel in the arena of sport which the good Lord has displayed before us.  It is revealed in its glory.  We have the Cambridgeshire, the toughest race to crack as a tipster.  The Cheveley, the Royal Lodge, listed national hunt races at Market Rasen and decent fayre from Ripon where the Major has a work acquaintance attending.

Let us start with the Royal Lodge, one of the Majors favourites.

2.05 Newmarket – The Royal Lodge – Group 2

There does not look like anything like the quality of last years 30/100 winner Frankel in this years renewal of the Royal Lodge.

Rockinate is of interest having possibly been unsuited by the soft conditions underfoot last time out.  He has a chance of giving Rock of Gibraltar a decided shove up the stud rankings.

The Major though prefers to go with Wrote.  O’Brien has had a quieter summer than usual but has a good record in this race.  Wrote looks to be a major player in the stable and I am going to back the Irish powerhouse of racing to take the race for a third time in six years.  4/1 with Paddy Power is fair enough.

2.35 Newmarket – Cheveley Park – Group 1

Where Rockinate might look beatable in the first, Best Terms looks a much more useful Hannon inmate.  This horse has improved with each appearance and last time out, the defeat of Fire Lily looked mighty impressive.

That said 5/4 gives little room for any other thoughts other than a Best Terms win, yet the Major thinks there are other potential winners to consider.

First alternative would have to be Lightening Pearl for Ger Lyons.  This looked to step up hugely on it’s last run and they have not made the trip across the sea without a hope of a big run.

Shumoos at a price if putting his best foot forward could threaten the places too.  At 20/1, although he has not progressed in the same way as Best Terms, he is running for a stable that know how to win a Cheveley Park.

On balance, keep it simple, Best Terms will win.

3.10 Newmarket – Sun Chariot Stakes – Group 1

The group one action continues at pace from Newmarket with a fantastic renewal of the Sun Chariot.  Saphresa and Rod Collet go for a hat trick of wins and with the horse in decent touch, who is to say they cannot do it from a best price 2/1.

This is one though that the Major feels easier to oppose.  Over the years, the Sun Chariot goes to a 3-year-old with the occasional 4-year-old winning.  Saphresa won last year as a 5-year-old and I think it is asking too much to expect the same again when there are cracking horses wanting to take this Group 1 with handy allowances.

It is the two three year olds I think we should focus on, both seem to represent better value.

Together, the O’Brien horse has seen plenty of action for a classic generation horse.  With a strikerate of just 2 wins in 13 starts, you must have some doubts but this is not the whole story.  The story of the defeats is interesting.  Two three-quarter length defeats in the British and Irish 2,000 Guineas show she is a class act.  Running well in defeat is always a concern for the Major but this is an O’Brien horse he has targeted for this race.  Interesting

Alanza is another of clear interest.  This John Oxx, Aga Khan and Murtagh special has improved markedly on the last three occasions but the Major is unsure that the running is any better than Together.

This makes life tough.  If you think that Alanza is 7/2 and Together 9/1, there is only one choice from the two.

The Major thinks an alternative is in order and Timepiece is the choice.  She is a class act, she has defeated Saphresa on her last meeting with her.  She has run credibly in Deauville at their festival the last twice.  I think at four, her best trip is still a mile at which she is four wins from five runs.  Shabash, take a slice.

3.50 Newmarket – The Cambridgeshire

This is a conundrum, disguised as a puzzle, hiding in an enigma, wrapped in Satans cloak.

If ever there was a race set to freeze your brain with draw bias, pace and handicap mark question marks, the Cambridgeshire is it.

The first twelve to get the dreaded black line were the top runners on the card.  No horse has won a Cambridgeshire in fifteen years off a higher weight than 9st 3lbs.  The most notable scalp of this cut was Man of Action, the Godolphin 11/1 shot.  Man of Action will love conditions but is ruled out on weight.

The Rowley mile course at Newmarket is stunning.  A wide expanse of land that allows the horses to gallop up onto a heath after the finish post.  Beautiful but the nature of the course means any patch of it may be chosen to run on.  This makes draw analysis of previous running useless.

The Major has opted for Questioning the Gosden horse who is also 11/1.  I like the 5l defeat to Pour Moi, I like the fact that Gosden has a sterling record in the Cambridgeshire and being 10lbs ahead of the handicapper, I am going to opt for this likelier sort to win.

4.15 Ripon – Class 2 Handicap

Paul, if you are reading, best of luck at Ripon.  While I would have liked to go through the entire card, I had to spend hours on Newmarket and so have had a look at the feature race to try and find a winner.

The horse first of interest to the Major is Murbeh.  Although off the track for some time since third in a Newmarket handicap, this Meehan runner has a big chance.  That day at Newmarket, he ran on well at the close and he will have plenty of pace to aim at today at Ripon.

Below Zero of the big prices is considered.  At 20/1, this Johnston horse ran extremely well to take a valuable Leopardstown race three starts back.  Since then, there have been two flops without particular explanation although taking so much racing in such a short time is as likely as any.  This will be Below Zeros 4th run in September and so is taken out of consideration… best watched.

Top weight Pepper Lane is a likely sort.  This one ran no sort of race in the Gold Cup at Ayr and the Major can only take it that this was entirely the wrong running.  Her last two races were at this track and both she finished on top.  She went into the Gold Cup up 22lbs since her first win of the season.  She would have to be good to win this of that mark but if you take her Gold Cup run out then she did look a Group sprinter in the making.  Considered.  Do not forget that she defeated Our Jonathan in her last Ripon run, she is a quality horse.

Discanti and Artic Feeling at prices also are off some interest.

On balance, the value in the race for the Major is Pepper Lane.  I am willing to suggest she is a much better horse than her Ayr Gold Cup run and 7/1 prices plenty of the question mark in.

To the sports….

Tottenham away make appeal at 19/20 and I think they will come away with the three points from Wigan.

QPR who have smashed Wolves and a Villa team where the faint calls of resignation from a manager many did not want…. good recipe for backing the hoops at 13/10.

I also like Man United to win at 10/17 away at Stoke.  Stoke did not have a European hangover excuse to roll out for their defeat last week to Sunderland and Manchester United have looked devastating every start this year.  10/17 is way too short in the Majors view.

May your dinner be a fine curry with a cold beer.  Consider eating it alone, after all one must not be worried about your own company.

Courage and shuffle those cards.

Thursday York Card – Yorkshire Oaks Day – Big Price Tips 25/1, 20/1, 12/1 and the rest – Set your stakes to dangerous

Good evening from the Major – Our one shot wonder tip on Monday came romping in at an SP of 5/2, advised 7/2 and while the Major had no time last night to review the opening card of the Ebor meeting, I have had a look at the riches of tomorrows races.

To York, to battle, Shabash young Pathan

Good luck to Mike, Holly, Chris and the Stickeyes team at York – Hope you have a great time, that link is for you and from such a major internet hub as themajorversusthebookie, it will have an impact on your business – I hope between the conversations held tomorrow around how you can get Holly’s party bus #reactivated, you find some winners in the card preview I have prepared.

To all – The Major is taking a summer break. I may have a few brief posts from France, I may have the odd guest tipster pop in but normal service including the recently highly profitable Saturday sermons will return from 30th August.

Let us see if I can board that ferry with a wedge of Euros fit to permit an English gentleman to romp through the provinces of France enjoying the best of their food, wine, brandy and women of darken eye with wanton glint.

The Majors trip to France coincides with next Sundays Prix Morny card from Deauville. I may try to make it, I will file a report if I do – Petetre, this will require a significant draw down on the bank of Brownie Points, n’est pas, c’est la vie.

To York, the Knavesmire and a battle with that filthy enemy, lying low in the gutter a tinge of red in his eye, dark sodden heavy clothes swathe his wire frame. With an air of wickedness and a smell of decomposition, do not be fooled, his mind is a devious swirling vortex, his prices set to fool those of weak mind.

Fear not, the Major is here to help. We shall daub our war paint and I shall slam my staff into the ground, to battle.

2pm Yearling Stakes

The prize money on show for this Class 2 is such that it attracts some of the finest juveniles. I am sure this deserves group status, maybe this will change next year.

There are plenty of interest in the twenty runners and perhaps the one that has shown best form has been Crown Dependency. This Hannon entry (one of three for the famed juvenile specialist) was defeated a mere two and a quarter lengths in the high class Norfolk Stakes.

That day Crown Dependency was pinched for room and so you could argue was unlucky. He was however well drawn and raced on the right side of the track and overall 3/1 seems very stingy against this field. That said, big race and big field experience is a benefit. Well regarded for top connections but not for the Major.

So where do we go? Last year this race was won by Wootton Bassett the Fahey horse who had a stablemate back in third. His best filly this year, Miss Work of Art seems exposed and so the Majors search for a winner…. continues.

Well, having spent some time trying to read which maiden races may be the ones to track, I am interested in the twice raced Gerfalcon. The Salisbury race is proving to be the source of other future winners and so that Class 5 win is worth more than the bare result. Of some interest.

Hestian is a real eye catcher. The Naas race which this rather fetching bay colt took could not look better with second An Ghalanta going on to win again and earning a rating of 95. This one looks decent and I much prefer this 6/1 to the 3/1 about Crown Dependency.

This is not the selection though, although it probably should be. For that I go to a horse that is priced at 20/1, Roger Sez. This horse has enough experience for these big races having raced 4 times and won 3. It is overpriced in my view based on its ugly way of winning. It tends to be off the bridle before most but is a scrapper and will punch on regardless. The last Newmarket win was in a good standard of race and I am willing to risk that the horse is under rated at the price.

2.30 Lowther Stakes – Group 2

What a cracking little renewal, here come the girls – Some of the best European fillies do battle. A Queen Mary winner, the Cherry Hinton winner and Fire Lily who is well regarded, not to mention Angels will Fall, a previous winning tip from the Major.

Best Terms, the Hannon horse must be feared and would be a serious candidate but in good to soft at York, I am not convinced that her prominent style will suit. That said, I think 8/1 is a great each way bet.

The give under foot is a a significant factor and one that gives us decent evidence of a likely big run from Angels will Fall.

This is a tougher contest than the Group 3 won by her when tipped up by the Major at 8/1 and she beat some decent sorts. The way she finished that day suggested there was still more to come. Some edging was involved near the finishing and so it is reasonable to expect further improvement with experience, 4/1 feels about right maybe with a little of the pricing on our side, I would not put you off.

However, the Major opts for a piece of value again. At 12/1 Hello Glory seems ignored. The maiden she won near the end of July was good. She took it well, coming from deep. The second that day went on to win another maiden with comfort and I suspect that Hello Glory has plenty more to give.

I think her price is helped by the fact that she is not involved in the form lines of the main protagonists and so less considered. Shabash, get stuck in – Right or wrong, I never hesitate to follow a thought that is against the crowd, come on Hello Glory, show me I am right!

I love racing – that sense before you witness how the event which you planned so well in your head, that moment where every opinion you have is certain fact… It is as though the whole universe was created solely for your own purpose, moulded about you.

3.05 Goddard Stakes

This mile handicap is a tricky conundrum in a puzzle, disguised as a mystery. 20 runners improvers, suspicious horses on kind marks on old forms, the enemy slinks in the shadows of such cards. Where to cast thy eye with trust?

The Major spent most time on this race but feel I remain least informed. That said, a few things caught my eye.

On Ground – Axiom, Harrison George, Pintura, Masked Dance, Leviathan?, Roker Park (if more rain)

On Recent Form – Pintura, Markazzi, Axiom, Smarty Socks

Pintura looks quite well treated for his Ascot run, up just 2lbs for a tasty 3rd.

Lovelace (40/1) is one to watch like a hawk in the market. It has dropped like a stone in water through the weights and a bit of cash might just signify a return to form. Harrison George has a similar profile as does Cashelger and Mont Agel.

Accepting we might be beaten by a horse returning to form off a plummeting mark, I am looking for an improver. The one I opt for is the unlikely 25/1 shot Roker Park. I will be more interested if there is more precipitation but this mud lover has had decent recent form with the exception of the run last time. He was staying on at the finish though and Hoof It the winner is widely accepted as a group horse masquerading as a handicapper. 25/1, have a tasty slice and send me the postcard!

Of the rest, Axiom and Pintura are of greatest interest.

3.40 Yorkshire Oaks

This Group One, champions series race is another reason that if God were walking the Earth, he would head up the M1 on his motorbike wearing no crash helmet and spend an afternoon in the good Yorkshire air.

Banimpire is a tough cookie, she has improved and battled through every race. It is with hesitation I suggest she won’t have the class to win this. 6/1 is very fair.

Blue Bunting, the 1,000 Guineas winner is of most interest. 11/4 is an honest price held up by the other quality in the field.

Crystal Capella while looking better than ever this year, is probably held, although I think the Stoute yards string are looking well of late. Laughing Lashes is one I would consider to be better than 10/1.

Overall, 11/4 Blue Bunting is a price for me. Here is some analysis for you that only the Major would provide… In the last ten years, 5 winners of the Yorkshire Oaks have been classic generation (3 year olds) and 5 older horses. In the last twenty years, of the eleven classic generation winners, the biggest priced winner of all eleven was just 7/2. When there is a fancied 3yo running, it bodes well.

Listen to the Jesus voice in your head, you know it speaks the truth … Now back Blue Bunting with a roll of notes fit to choke a reasonably sized European mammal …… thank me later.

4.15 – Galtres Stakes

How Mirror Lake was dropped two pounds for a very decent second in a listed race last time is a mystery to the Major. That said, 8/1 as a price is OK but the Major is uncertain of the form of the Perrett string. Considered with a luke warm view.

Wild Coco is a Stoute horse who if you put a line through the last run on the grounds that the conditions did not have enough cut, looks like a horse on the improve. Interesting.

The same has to be said of Field of Miracles whose Banimpire form gets tested in the Yorkshire Oaks – If the firmer conditions were against last time, then this will be more like it and a big run should be anticipated. Exciting.

All of these are contenders but the Major opts for Amazing Beauty at 8/1. This O’Brien horse stayed on well over this distance at the Curragh and while her form is a little hit and miss, there is enough to suggest she could have more to follow.

4.50 – The Lucky Last – Eventmasters.co.uk Stakes

Mother of Mary. Another 20 runners, another puzzle. Let’s get lucky.

Sea Change could be of interest if tuned up after a long time away from the track. Interesting and money would be significant.

The one the major is attracted to though is 7/1 Tuscan Gold. This 4 year old is up 20lbs since May 2010 and the improvement is unlikely to have stopped. Already gelded, this horse looks like he has a decent chance of bagging a race at this level and in the hands of Sir Michael Stoute, I am happy to back a big run today.

Good luck to you. In the last few weeks, one regular follower has dropped me notes of thanks. The Major has a simple view, none are required. You can read the information for free, that is as far as my obligation goes. Either choose to follow it or choose not to. I do not profess to have miracle answers but I do back horses to profit on the blog which is proven in my results (not updated in many months as lost the motivation too!). Do not blame the information provided, only question how you used it! In this relationship, the Major refuses to accept your criticism as much as I cannot accept the praise for a decision you made.

Courage and shuffle the cards.

Day Two Royal Ascot Tips

Despite my bet of the week Canford Cliffs going in, day one of Royal Ascot, was a loss maker for the Major.

Canford Cliffs did the business for the Major – Bring on Day Two

What a great days racing.  I wanted to get Frankel beaten (but wanted to see him win!) – While he held on, surely they will stop what I consider to be ridiculous riding tactics.  Just because Frankel can win when you ask him for his major effort 4 furlongs from home, does not mean you should.  Tom Queally is adamant that Frankel was simply idling and that no horse has yet given him a race.  Well he was almost chinned on the line today.  I don’t understand why they want to ride him in a sort of Secretariat way, he has the cruising pace of the devil and a devastating turn of foot.  It feels like that they almost want to get a breath-taking victory, not needed.  I am sure the back to back Group 1 winners will take the advice.  (THE MAJOR, HORSES TRAINED: 0 OWNED: 0 RIDDEN: 0)

It almost feels like we have had the best of Royal Ascot and getting as excited about Wednesday is hard.  Tuesdays opening 4 races were as good as racing gets.  The sun shined on Berkshire, I am sure he approved.

2.30 Jersey Stakes Group 3

This is a tough nut to crack.  There are a few bits of European classic form on show.  I am not sure which is the strongest but suspect that the Irish form of Oracle may hold out well.

Strong Suit for Hannon who was off the mark with Canford Cliffs yesterday is an interesting contender.  Clearly there are a few questions to be answered but if Hannon has Strong Suit back to some sort of form, his 12/1 is interesting.

The one the Major opts for though to get the day off to a flyer is lightly raced Western Aristocrat.  On form, it has a lot to make up but there is reason to think it can.  After winning its maiden easily, it went on to battle home in a class 3 last time out.  Nothing too remarkable about that but watching the run, he was hampered and did well to get up on the line.

Fury with the assistance of Fallon does not look good enough for the Major.  Perfectly possible that more improvement is to come but so far at the top-level he is wanting.

I am not sure that Codemaster is a worthy favourite at 3/1 – Not one for the Major.

I am finding it hard to pick the class horse.  This is why I am opting for Western Aristocrat at 13/2.  The yard have taken the Jersey Stakes twice in recent years and this is a versatile looking sort who has scope to improve into the frame.  Noseda has booked Murtagh which caught the eye.  I would not put anyone off Strong Suit each way.

3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes

Jaqueline Quest, owned by Mr Martin and if I remember rightly named after his late wife, Jaqueline Quest was denied a classic win last year after finishing first past the post in the 1,000 Guineas.  No wins since, yet has never finished more that 4l off the winner in any subsequent race.  A great each way bet at 25/1 in the Majors view.

Music Show is a horse which the Major was a big fan of yet she has had her chances this year and I am no longer following it with good money!

Basically the race will pan out with Sajjha trying to lead a quick steady tempo from the front and draw the string from the field.  I’m a dreamer who won from last to first last time out at HQ will be held up ( as he has been in every race) – Against this quality opposition, I would rather be on Sajjha – 7/2 I’m a Dreamer needs to be extremely good to come from last to first past a horse of this quality.

3.45 Prince of Wales Stakes

Here we go, at last Grade One action, the top notch cuts.

This on the face of it, looks all about So You Think, the Australian superstar resident in the Ballydoyle operation.  4/9 shows what this horse has achieved down under and in two runs this year in Europe, the horse has shown it has translated to the Northern hemisphere.

That said, I have been a big fan of Planteur and think this one has improved if anything.  The Longchamp runs look good.

It is a tough call.  There are only 7 runners and so looking down the field for value seems unwise.

Overall Planteur offers me enough hope at 4/1 that So You Think won’t make this a procession.

4.25 Royal Hunt Cup

What a terrific handicap.  30 are due to go to post – This is essentially Christmas for Pricewise.

The Major has found a few of more obvious interest.  I am interested in those from the high draws given the result of the Coventry.

The two I have settled on are Bronze Prince and Kay Gee Bee at 20/1 and 33/1 respectively.

Bronze Prince gets in to the race at the bottom of the weights.  Green Destiny being a drop out.  Not fully exposed and of interest with some useful form recorded, I want this one on side.

Kay Gee Bee is just as interesting , I think the York form could work out well and at 33/1 with the assistance of Hanagan, I suggest a slice.

5.00 Queen Mary Stakes

Back to Group action as the fillies line up for a sprint.

There is always a risk in getting stuck into short price favourites in fillies races for juveniles.  Yet, the way Shumoos beat yesterdays victor Frederick Engels has to be eye-catching.  11/8 seems more than reasonable and the Major suggests a reasonable bet although my betting resolutions dictate not getting carried away with two year olds.  The breeding is a new line from Distorted Humor and is proving very interesting.

Dozy and Best Terms are the risk, both unbeaten.  Of the two, probably Best Terms at 12/1 makes the most appeal.  The wins look better, this Exceed and Excel filly could be a danger.

Gypsy Robin has not come across the pond for the air yet the Major would want to se a run on dirt previously, not for the Major.

5.35 Sandringham Handicap

If you need a winner at this stage, you might go home in the poor house.

If Western Arisocrat goes in earlier in the day then there will be plenty of support for Rhythm of Light who was 2nd on their last blow out.

The Queens horse, Humdrum, is evidently a player.  Having won on the all-weather on its return, the form has been boosted by the 2nd winning next time out, making the 10lb rise looking at best compensation from the handicapper.  9/2 is short enough in this field but real chances.

I am happy to have a pop at another outsider.  33/1 Wrekin Sunset for an in form small yard, I think this one is on the upgrade.  It might not be as fashionable as the Luca Cumani, Kieran Fallon ridden sort but is not without a chance.

Good luck one and all.