Tag Archives: broxbourne

The Saturday Sermon – Ayr Gold Cup, Newbury Tips, splash of football

Good morning from the Major who rises a little later than usual to find Worcestershire blanketed in a consuming blue grey cloud.  We have fallen between the cracks in the season and all is calm for now.

Whether it be my heavy cold (which persists) I can not tell but I am feeling the chill air a little more than I should and so have lit a fire.  Now you might be thinking that it is September and the temperature really does not warrant it and I would find it hard to resist that argument, save this.  I am a pyromaniac and I enjoy it, I require little encouragement to reach for the flammables.

There is something enchanting about the dance and lick of flame, the warmth emanating from the violence, I find it irresistible.  No work in my garden goes without an incendiary event and my usual aim is to have something so fierce burning that the American military register as a suspicious launch type event.

The sparks that leap from the flame, I think it was Descartes who likened them to our lives.  When we are young and at the heart of the fire, things are so pure to us.  We are exquisite because we have not polluted our minds with knowledge, we can imagine the impossible because we have not yet blinkered ourselves with common sense.  This dulls as we grow, as the spark leaves the fire and spirals away in the air.  We might add knowledge but it weighs rather than frees, burdens us, until we fall to the floor, all light extinguished.

This may sound like an urge not to seek learning.  Quite the opposite.  I advocate a life of learning for you, it is tremendous fun.  When you are younger though, you absorb information in a different way, you thirst for it, as you age and weary, we are reluctant, losing the burning intense heat we once had.  Hold on to it.  Stay close to the fire my friends.  Allow wonderment.

Last week was much better, we may not have been sensational but we hit the bar several times.  I thought Talent was mighty unlucky in the St Leger, still, she once again stole my heart when barging between colts with just three hundred metres remaining, brave girl.

To the sports… Get on parade soldier, for it is a day of treachery, the enemy has conceived cards so deceitful, that only our best will see us through to a profit.  Tread warily and have your bayonet fixed for we will meet them hand to hand if we must.

Ayr Gold Cup Day

Now I must confess that these big sprint handicaps are not really my idea of finding a good bet.  Naturally, I understand the attraction of looking at a 28 runner field that is 8/1 but find the calculations too obtuse – Too many obvious candidates is my usual problem.

Therefore today, I shall give you my notes but know this, the Gold Cup is not a betting race for me.  You make your choice, this is your divine position and while taking my position is my business, I shall presume how to tell you yours.

One trend really stands out for me.  Ten of the last thirteen races have gone to Nicholls, Fahey or Ryan.  That is telling and where I would start my appraisals.  Such a stance is indeed quite a rough treatment of the data we have available but in this sort of contest, you have to make a stand somewhere.  On draw, my preference would be 6-16 but I would not make it a red line either.  This in spite that the high numbers seemed advantageous, seems illogical but watching the replay of those races, I am not sure too much bias exists and track record and pace has influenced my target stalls.

Of their runners, Baccarat would be highly interesting but the popular concern is the ground for which he is untested.  Being out of Dutch Art, I have no such fears as his sire tend to produce sprinters who like traction.  Highly considered with the capable Hanagan up top and drawn 14.  Definite candidate.

I would love Hoof It to win but he needs the ground to dry out.  From the trainers I discarded, the stand our horse is Red Dubawi who has been bought over from Ireland.  Conor King has been riding with such distinction for a teenager and is already able to go toe to toe with the best, his 5lb claim is simply a bonus.  Jack Dexter is also going to be popular, looking a group horse in his exploits over the last two summers.

Having meandered through the lot, my single dart is going to be a win bet on the Keith Dagleish trained Lover Man at 33/1 with Coral.  He does not fit lots of the trends for a winner in the race but is drawn well (for me) in ten and comes as an unexposed sort, this being his first run in Britain.

A horse I think is a must bet is the 9/2 shot Light Weight.  The Danehill Dancer filly looked a good horse winning at Newcastle in tremendous style and only has Braidley to be concerned about in my view.  That colt showed well last time too but has a ten pound raise as a consequence and my girl in good to soft (family have good record in it) with a stone in hand looks a must bet.  High Confidence.

I am not touching the Silver Cup but am prepared to stick with connections and back Valonia at 5/1 in the 3.15.  A lot of money has been invested in this good looking chestnut and she holds plenty of top class entries.  Qatar Racing have seen enough to think she is a worthy addition and the trainer has been able to keep her in the yard.  I suspect 5/1 might look big.

Newbury Tips

My bet of the Newbury card is for Meteroid in the nursery who is trading as 2/1 favourite.  He won a Warwick maiden with plenty of style and although that form might look nothing more than average, I think there is plenty to come.  While the ground may be unproven, the sire, Dynaformer, has a good record of his offspring so it is not off-putting to me.

Sticking with favourites chances, surely Kassiano is a good bet at 6/4 in the 1.50.  He has run with high distinction in Dubai (2nd in a G1) and has transferred Tapeta form to turf where he went readily away in a conditions event at HQ, last time out.  This is an Arc trial race although you won’t find any of these names prominent in the Longchamp betting!

At Newmarket, I will be having a small interest in Amnesia at 2.30 with Murtagh booked.  His raids are so productive now he is more selective.  His strike rate in the last 90 days outstrips Buick, Moore, Barzalona et al by 5%.  The horse looks OK too!

Jallota on paper ratings looks a shoe in at 6/4 but horses being dropped massively in class after failing further up are not my bet.

Equally there will be no bet but I shall be watching the Cesarewitch trial closely where I would expect Broxbourne to run with credit.  This race could throw up all sorts though.

In the football, Liverpool looks a bet at 8/13.  I also like Cardiff at Tottenham who are 19/20.

The Martin Hill Lucky 15 is going under some reconstructive surgery.  I think Martin himself might be finally losing heart.  Yet, I ask him to hold on for one week further as: Light Weight, Valonia, Meteroid, Kassiano is one to set your watch by!

Good luck to all of you today, I hope your dinner is in great company.  Courage and roll those dice.

The Saturday Sermon – The Ascot Shergar Cup Card, Newmarket and Haydock – Telescope and Simple Good Fun

Good morning from the Major who writes from a Worcestershire scene of early morning beauty.  The sky is a fine profusion of god’s elegant palette.  The palest blue melts gently into formless agreeable white clouds made peachy by the pale weak lemon sun yet to impress it’s forceful splendour upon us.

The Major is up early as in need of a productive day to fulfil numerous and important obligations.  The mind is whirring away with a thousand matters at hand to be seen to.  For reasons I am unable to fathom, I can feel the force of intent, my body galvanised behind the task, seeping out a chemical balance that had me up with the sun, eyes narrow and full of intent.

To be able to control one’s own mind wholly – What power.  How much are we slaves to our own emotion?  The Major is of the camp that believes the answer to be ‘as much as you want to be’ but it would be rude to get started on that puritanical tract now, you do not need such preaching at this hour on a Saturday.  Relax in this company stranger.

Instead consider the question of happiness?  Are you in control of that at least?  What makes you content?  Is it important to be happy?  I shall summarise for your delectable taste, some of the findings of the studies on happiness….

Modern wisdom seeks happiness at the heart of everything but what is it that truly makes you happy?  Science suggests a number of factors.  You would guess the first, I am at pains to write it, for fear of sounding mawkish, but it is seeking deep loving relationships.  That makes some sense but for the Major, I have always felt comfortable in my own skin and not felt the deep need of company.  I must admit to wishing I had more friends, or more time with friends but have come to accept with contentment that I alone am OK.

Some studies suggest more important that relationships is having a clear picture of life’s meaning.  Well make your own because whatever you fabricate is your invention and only has personal value.  The Major has a simple understanding of life’s meaning.  Have fun, we float by the once – This is well trodden land for the Major – Regulars know that I believe of all wastage on earth, the greatest is of the joys of today that pass you by while you were busy.

For true happiness you also need to think you are good-looking, yet it is less important that it be true.   So spend some time with beautiful people, that will perk you up, so to speak.  In this, I suggest you exert vigorous discipline.  The good lady often accuses me of only liking her best looking friends…  I, for one, do not defend the position, after all, why would that not be true?

Eat out more – The Major has been urging you to do this every Saturday for these many years.  People who eat out are happier souls and this I heartily agree with, if combined with the latter point regarding beautiful company, it is a heady mix.

The most powerful stimulant of a happy life I have yet to mention though.  It is activity.  Yes, the happiest people are the most active.  This, I can understand.  If you take pleasure from a roll of the dice, roll them more often.  Is this not in tune once more with the Major’s weekly urgings.  Do I not ask of you to roll those dice each week?

In this, I have started to understand my own meaning.  I am here as one small ingredient in your happiness recipe.  I am here on each Saturday urging you all to do those things to make you happy.  Roll the dice, eat well in fine company and seek pleasure in the small.

Today, we go to the well again in search of the mothership.  Our search thus far has not been fruitless but we know out there is the ‘life-changer’.  The Saturday where the stars align and the momentous result lifts us up.  What I fear is the aftermath of that day, for searching for it has meaning n’est pas? Losing that meaning is as equal as the spoils we gain from finding it.

Yet, we shall not tackle that fear until the mothership has landed.  So daub thy war paint once more young lancer, straighten that fine blue tunic with gold braid and raise that lance so it’s point glitters in the morning light.  We shall go forwards with great victory in mind.  Think of Hannibal who with fewer men, enveloped the deep Roman lines at Cannae, defeating their flanking cavalry and circling in behind the heavy infantry to complete the rout.

To battle friends.

The Ascot Shergar Cup Card.

For many horseracing purists,  know that the Shergar Cup is a bit of a tasteless distraction.  Competing teams of jockeys change the emphasis from horse to rider, the razzamatazz seems shallower and cheap.

Well bah humbug to you, it is good fun, simple.  While the card is compromised of a variety of handicaps and jockeys whose skills may be untested at Ascot on horses that are unfamiliar to them, we shall regardless have a pop at the key races.

The opener is a race that revolves around Nine Realms.  Last year, he won a decent looking Leicester maiden that has produced subsequent winners, some of whom are rated in the 90’s.  Clearly he was fancied on seasonal debut where he was backed before being help up and then making no impression when asked for his effort.  That was his first attempt at racing at York and I would be comfortable putting a line through that form and giving another chance to this one.  Of serious interest at 4/1.

The Major though is suggesting Roserrow as a 15/2 shot – This selection looked entirely trustworthy and progressive until his last run too where he was used up too quickly in an effort to get prominent.  You could argue he faces the same problem here today but I am backing his jockey to play his hand well and put us in the race neatly.  Andrew Balding has won this race several times before which is a plus and the jockey is a skilled and experienced as you like.  Gary Stevens is an American who came out of retirement this year to ride again, if you are worried about whether he still has it… He won the Preakness on 16/1 shock Orb  – Think ‘American’ Johnny Murtagh.

In the staying race, I want a proven stayer and non stands out more than Broxbourne whose record at 2m+ is 4 runs, 3 wins and 1 place.  If they go quick, this girl will be doing her best work in the last two furlongs.

Yet, the Major is sticking with red-hot trainer Sir Mark Prescott and his Ffos Las winner Mutual Regard who is available at 11/2 with Coral and 9/2 generally.  The appeal here is in both the trainer form and the nature of the last win.  A small field at Ffos Las might not be the most reliable of yardsticks to count on a  horses worth but there seems merit in the run.  The second Estyaaq went back to Ffos Las to simply destroy the field in his next race.  I would accept that it represented a drop in grade but it was still eye-catching and considering that Mutual Regard has a 5 from 11 strike rate, I am willing to bet, there could be more to come.  Mark Johnstone has an obvious danger in Broxbourne.

We jump from staying into sprint company for the class 2 dash.  With these sort of highly strung racehorses, it is difficult to judge which are to be at the peak of their game and for me, this is the hardest race to take a firm view in.  As such, I like the chance to 20/1 shot, first reserve Swan Song who is in the race after the defections of Prohit and Stone of Folca.  You need improvement from this girl who was behind Steps and Ahtoug but she does keep getting better.  Yet the key form to me is the 4th of Racy in the Stewards Cup.  This is not a horse that has shown superstar tendencies but that form is very solid and he has only been in the hands of Brian Ellison for this stage of his career – 7/2 is available.

The 2.40 is a middle distance contest that Mark Johnston seems to own having sent half of the field down on a northern raid.  Yet the favourite is Charlie Applebys Chesterfield – The yard is in tremendous form and there is a lot to like in the progressive sort.    There is still some 3/1 available and I would gobble it down like the glutton you are.

Mark Johnston is well represented in the following race too and if Star Lahib continues recent form, then I would expect to see it involved at the business end.  She ran very well over 12f when getting up late to win the Old Newton Cup and had some solid handicapping sorts in behind.  Dropped two furlongs next time out, it looked too sharp – She ran with credit and was running on when many had cried enough but it simply looks like 10f was too quick.  Thus today’s 12f with a stiff finish should be ideal.  I may well regret not backing Star Lahib but I am tempted away by Beaufort Twelve who is available at 13/2 in a few places and was a very capable looking younger horse that seems not to have quite fulfilled the promise.  He ran earlier in the week at Pontefract with credit and runs off the same mark, I hold a candle.

Finally the 3.50 – In the lucky last I am with Tom Dascombe and Barracuda Boy at 8/1 (Ladbrokes / Betfred).  We need to find form but when we do, the line with Body and Soul shows it is meaningful.  Have a large slice, I think this is the day.

Haydock and Newmarket.

I know purist racing fans will be analysing these cards with much more vigour than the shallow fun being had at Ascot – Well, I do not blame you.

Patrons of Haydock are rewarded today at 2.55 with the second appearance of the highly fascinating Telescope who is 4/6 to win.  Let us remember a few points about this one… He was the most expensive yearling, he was favourite for the derby, he was injured and missed the lot and then hacked up in a Leicester maiden by as far as you like.  There is no reason to think he is anything other than a class above this lot and more interesting is the 16/1 about him for the Arc.

Haydock also host a listed fillies contest and I am interested in Expressly and Zurigha.  I settle on the latter at 7/1 for the value of Levey in the saddle who I readily prefer to Barzalona.

At Newmarket, I am going to take my chances with 4/1 Conduct who runs in the 3pm contest.  She is the most lightly raced 6 year old you might find having run only three times in her injury beset career. Yet she is in good hands in the Haggas camp and was well fancied for the Ebor last year before being withdrawn.  Anything like decent fitness and I think she is a danger to all.

The Martin Hill lucky 15 is Conduct, Zurigha, Chesterfield and Mutual Regard… Load a cannon young man.

That is it from the Major – May your dinner be taken out with fine beautiful company, may the tip swell the waiters pocket, a mere slice of the days excess.

Courage, roll those dice.