Tag Archives: casper netscher

The Saturday Sermon – Breeders Cup Tips, JNwine Tips, Premier League Tips

Nicholls and The Nightingale to take the JNwine, have a slice and send me the postcard

Good morning from the rail lines of Britain where the Major is hurtling from the provincial backwaters of my native Pershore to the nation’s capital.  Today I am visiting the Emirates for a game of association football in which I hope my own team, West Brom, can repeat the unlikely heroics of last years three-two victory.

The dank and overcast conditions weigh heavy on the heart but there is plenty to pierce this seemingly impregnable depression in the weather.  The Breeders Cup, the JNwine, all of the top premier clubs in action and the opportunity of staking your hard-won monies against the enemy.

Last week was not a good Saturday Sermon with bad luck and poor decision-making costing me and any followers who went in after me a wedge.  Sunday was much better advising Nephrite, the 5/2 conqueror of Born to Sea and then getting so close to the advised double as Bonfire ran into a wall of horses when surely unleashing a winning move off the home turn at Saint-Cloud in the Criterium.  Alas.

Daub thy war paint young warrior, feel the blood rushing in your veins and embrace the metallic taste in your mouth as your body rises on the tide of adrenaline.  It is good to be alive in England right now.  Mount your charger, sharpen your lance point, prepare for battle, we shall draw a bead on the enemy and allow skill and our razor-like mind, devoid of the misty confusion of emotion, to guide our actions, be strong and decisive.  Once the maelstrom is complete, we will stand in our fine military fig with brandy in hand and smoke in our nostrils…. Shabash!

Breeders Cup Tips

I do love the Breeders Cup, European trainers locked in battle with their American counterparts, top quality action on dirt and grass.

It is always a meeting tinged with sadness for the Major too.  It was following a Kentucky storm that George Washington, one of those horses I just felt a connection to lost his life on the sloppy Churchill Downs track.

Breeders Cup Classic

Lets start with the Breeders Cup Classic.  I think we can get Uncle Mo beaten.  The yanks love this classic winner and the trainer has stated he thinks he would beat Frankel over a mile (who is he kidding, he is not fit to pony Frankel to the start!).  I am not sure he is as good as his reputation suggests.  There is also a significant concern that Uncle Mo might not stay 10 furlongs, one to avoid.

There is also a big question mark over So You Think, who knows if he will act on the surface and Aidan O’Brien has a questionable record at the Breeders Cup.

Havre de Grace would be the Majors choice but again she might not quite last the trip and we need a true stayer, especially as the dirt is sodden, plus filly records in the classic are poor.

This leaves the Major with Flat Out at 7/1 with Corals, proven on surface and sure to get the trip, I think the extra distance will allow him to reverse placings with Havre, win bet advised.

Breeders Cup Turf Mile

What quality we have on show for our delectable pleasure.  I am looking forward to seeing Sarafina strutting her stuff, she was my idea of the Arc winner as many of you will remember.  I don’t think that was her running that day and 3/1 with Hills is fair, I would not put you off.  Midday and St Nicholas Abbey could fill the places but no better than that.

Sea Moon is lightly raced and is the selection.  Sir Michael Stout was confident enough to play this one in the Arc and although that did not work out, he has a profile of a Stoute Breeders Cup winner and the trainer has an excellent record in this race.

The Breeders Cup Juvenile

I am a big fan of Daddy Long Legs who is an American bred inmate at Ballydoyle.  At 9/1, I think we might see the best of him on this surface.  Although tapped for toe in the Champagne, I think his style of running will suit the dirt and of all the O’Brien raiders, this is one I think is well priced.   He will get the pace he desperately needs to aim at.

Of course we need to get Union Rags beaten (2/1 fav) and this might not be easy.  The ease of his victories suggests a star in the making but this is a stiffer challenge than anything he has yet faced, a small saver advised for the weak of mind.

Casper Netscher has been tipped up for the juvenile mile on turf but I have to say that it will not carry the Majors money.  The owner is a yank and I am sure he envisages glory.  The horse is good too but asking it to travel to the states for its tenth run of the year is too much.

JNwine Champion Chase

No Kauto Star this year but an interesting contest at Down Royal where Irish hotpot and quiet gold cup fancy, Quito De La Roque attempts to boost his reputation in this Grade 1 contest.

I cannot have the Irish horse for this as his trainer has already declared that his preparation has not been ideal.  I am sure connections would not have had him firing at 100% for this anyway as he has bigger targets later and this encourages the Major to look elsewhere.

The place to look in my view is dictated by trainer comment, trainer record and ground.  This gives The Nightingale a tremendous chance.  This Nicholls inmate has won every start on soft which is a terrific advert and the trainer comment of ‘this is his gold cup’ gives confidence that the horse is fully wound up.  Finally, Nicholls has a tremendous record in a race that Kauto Star has dominated in recent years, I am sure he would be sending a decent sort to win again and protect that record.  9/2 is available with Coral, treat them with disdain for their utter ignorance.

Tips from the other sports

Victor Chandler has gone insane and I fully recommend the big six 11/1 accumulator of…. Spurs to win at Fulham (where I advise a significant 11/8 stake in addition, Man City to win at QPR, Chelsea to win at Blackburn, Man U to beat Sunderland at home and Liverpool to see off Swansea……. OK you only need one slip but 11/1 is a tremendous special and I recommend a double stake.

Many Exmoor trainers will struggle with the M5 closure.  Watching the scenes of burning carnage late last night, you are reminded that safety and security are not rights and we are all vulnerable vessels of blood, bone and tissue.

Tonight dine well, at home.  You need to watch the Breeders Cup after all and see if Goldikova can make history and also to observe your well guided wagers causing the enemy pain immeasurable.  Eat curry, drink cold beer, lie back and close your eyes.  In the depth of slumber, true peace can be attained but take that roll of notes from your pocket first, if you turn into it, it could jam into your ribcage and wake you up.

Courage followers and roll those dice.

The Saturday Betting Sermon from the Major – Cesarewith Tips, Newmarket Juvenile Champions Day Tips, Rockingham Tips for York, Champagne Group 1 in the States, Shabash!

Good morning from the Major who writes to you from a Defford that has turned the corner of the cool seasons.  It is dark outside, a consuming darkness which would threaten the sentiment of ease in a mans mind.  Allow the Major to awaken you then to winters glory, soon there will be top class jumps action.  Let your spirit rise up like souls awakening.

Sir Clement, rest in peace – I am gunning in on La Estrella at 40/1 for you!

When you bet, is faith a factor?  Each time you make a selection and wager your hard won money, you take a risk, a risk based on your belief versus that of the enemy, the dark twisted mind of the turf accountant.

William James the American philosopher said that faith was a belief where in theory doubt was possible.  This is surely apt in a gambling mans mentality.  Yet the Major urges you to question each faith, this requires you to do something very simple.

You must, in your mind, price every choice before betting and then bet on value, not outcome.

Some have faith in a team that they will win regardless.  If Barcelona were playing Nottingham Forest every week then they would be priced at perhaps 1/16 for the win.  If I priced at 1/1000 and was the only market available, people would only be forced to bet it at my price and I am sure some would include it in accumulators.  Faith is ridiculous in betting analysis.

In sport, anything can happen.  Using that as the basis for gambling will allow you to make better decisions.  Trends, not faith.

Uncertainty is the beauty of gambling.  The bible taught that faith should be unerring and unswerving.  That you could not enter heaven without it and that it could move a mountain.

The Major teaches a separate lesson of gambling.  Learn to have faith in nothing.  Manchester United can lose at home to weak teams.  Not often, but they can.  The only question is whether the price offered is a fair reflection of the chance taken.

To the sports.

What a fantastic card at Newmarket where we are indulged with two Group 1, two Group 2 and two Group 3 races.  The Major has looked at all and selected a couple of punts, I like the look of…

The Middle Park Stakes

At this stage of the season and with nearly £100k for the winner, it is not a surprise that there is rarely a big surprise in the Middle Park Stakes.

Some of the best two year old colts line up against each other for their last efforts of the campaign before being put away for the winter and prepped for their classic campaigns, if they are good enough.

The Major thinks it has been a cracking juvenile season, we have had some great horses emerge and I am excited about the year to come.

At this distance, Casper Netscher is one of the likely winners.  I think 11/2 is a fair price.  Earlier in the season, he seemed to me to be the best I had seen.  Being a Dutch Art colt and from his racing style, I am not sure he will get much further than 6f and so he is unlikely to be a guineas horse but this could be his day.  One slight doubt is the amount of racing he has done.  While experience in a big field on a day like this is invaluable, he might have had enough for the season.  That said, he has been made slightly less use of since August (2 races) than the height of summer (4 races in June and July).  Shortlist material, particularly as Casper has won both his last two starts in lesser Group company.

Family One is of terrific interest.  Only Dabirism got the better of this one in the Prix Morny at the Deauville festival.  Dabirism went on to win on Arc day and surely looks the best we have seen in Europe this year.  Connections of Family One, perhaps sensibly, skipped another show down with Dabirism and bought their colt here.  9/2 leading contender too.

Rebellious Guest is an interesting horse for george Margarson.  Winning a maiden before being firmly put in place at a better level at Ascot, you might have thought we had seen the best.  However, the horse showed that maybe, the Ascot form was all wrong by winning a lower level race at Windsor next time but doing so in a visually superb way.  12/1 is perhaps not as big as the Major wants but interesting.  This horse is one of the first out of Cockney Rebel, the 2,000 guineas winner.  Needed 20/1.

The horse that is current favourite though is lightly raced, unbeaten, Bapak Chinta.  Out of American stud, Speightstown, Bapak Chinta is one of only a few progeny riding in the UK.  He looks good having won both starts and the stud record shows that the sires fee will soon be rising.  I am not sure that a horse with only two starts under his belt and a huge question mark on whether the ground will suit is a good proposition at this price.  Not for the Major.

For those that like a huge price, I think B Fifty Two at 50/1 is the one to take a piece of.  He is not the Majors selection but using Dabirism as my yard stick, this one has a lot more ability than shown of late.  Crucially, he has also won on the Rowley Mile before.

The Major opts for Family One.  It is not just the Dabirism form or the targeting of this race.  The Major likes the style in which Family One won group races at Chantilly and Maison Lafitte…. Shabash!

The Dewhurst 

Just nine go to post in the 2011 Dewhurst but there is plenty of quality.

Jim Bolger has won this race three times in the last five years with horses such as Teofilo and New Approach.  Parish Hall does not seem in their league but could he make the step up.  That is what Intense Focus did three years ago for the same connections, scoring at 20/1.  Could this 22/1 shot repeat the dose?

Ektihaam is unbeaten but has not beaten much in his two starts.  5/1 seems skinny for this one.

Bronterre is one of two entries for Richard Hannon, the star juvenile trainer.  Both look decent shouts.  Bronterre won in such ready style at Goodwood latest, beating in the process Justineo who races in the Middle Park which could give a late form clue.  Clearly highly thought of, jockey booking suggests it is the best of the two Hannon horses.

It is not that unusual though to see Hannons second string defeat the first on the big stage.  Trumpet Major is the mount of Murtagh which you would think is an advert in itself.  In reality, Murtagh seems to have a poorish record on Hannon horses.  Trumpet Major looked good taking the Champagne Stakes last time out.  HE stayed on very well.  Surely of interest at 16/1.

The O’Brien horse, Power, is the 10/3 favourite and if anything I think the price is in our favour.  An impressive Group one winner and second (half a length) on his last two starts and from connections who have a number of juveniles they could throw at this race, he is worthy of favouritism.  The form here is as strong as anything in the race.

Overall Power and Trumpet Major are the two I am interested in.  Both represent great value and therefore I am using a staking plan of 1pt Power, 0.5 pt e/w Trumpet Major, .25pt rev f/c the pair.  Good luck.

3.50 Newmarket – The Cesarewitch

Four years ago when my personal hero, Sir Clement Freud was alive and writing his excellent Racing Post column, he tipped up Legspinner in the Cesarewitch as a 14/1 winner.  It may well be that this is the only time I manage to win this race in my own lifetime but I will have another go today.

Worth noting that if you fancy a win bet, returns are doubled through the Racing Post app which ties in to William Hill.  I say win bet because the tight so and so’s at Hills are not making the usual concession of going to 5 places on this race.

This is a forum where flat trainers of stayers meet well handicapped hurdlers from the jumps yard and that gives the race interesting angles and makes it a damn hard read.  When there are more than 30 horses, it becomes a true challenge.

In the last three years we have had a dual purpose ELEVEN year old carrying 9 stone six win and a three-year old stayer win, last years winner carried just 7 stone 11lbs.  Anything can win, what is overpriced?

I have decided that the profile I want is an eye-catching jockey booking and a reason to believe the handicap mark could be entirely false.  I also need the draw to be sub 15 as the wide horses are at significant disadvantage.

None fits the bill better than La Estrella at a mahooooosive 40/1.

Dane O’Neill has ridden for this stable 8 times in the last two years.  Six of those rides have been wins.  Out of stall 14, he can drop in just off the pace and this eight year old may just show that his last few runs have not been true.

Colour Vision and Palomar were the other two of interest.  Given it is 14/1 the field, I wish you serious luck!

Shabash.

Chepstow 4.45pm.

Domtaline, the Paul Nicholls runner is of huge interest to the Major.  Although Nicholls runners often come on for their first blow out of the season, this 11/10 chance looks to have been well placed for a confidence boosting win.

Formerly he mixed it in good company and while he was prone to blunder, the way he travelled into races suggested a good horse.  Now recovered from a long break, I would think a mark of 130 could be easily defied even if Ditcheat have left some off for the more serious races he will face later.

Load the big cannon on this one.

I hope you were on last weeks big paying patent advised on the Group races in the states.  For those night birds who like a late fancy, at just prior to twenty past ten, the Champagne Stakes go at Belmont.  Union Rags will win.

The Rockingham can go to Desert Gazelle.  She is a chestnut filly and you know what they say about their precocious natures but at 13/2 I think this Godolphin runner has a likely profile.

That is it from the Major today, make sure your dinner is of fine wine and impeccable service.  Tip well from that donkey choking roll of notes in your jacket pocket.  Drink good port and a brandy.  As the head hazes, remember the Majors words.  It is good to be a gambler and alive today.  Courage, roll those dice.

Day 5 Galway Tips, Day 4 Goodwood Tips – Friday CERT – Thank me later!

Good evening from the Major who has been through the Friday Galway and Goodwood cards and brings a guaranteed Friday winner, to give you a substantial war chest for your weekends projects whether the basis of your intention be simply further gambling or sheer debauchery.

The headlines might be about Galway and Goodwood but Bangor is where the Majors guaranteed* winner runs

The last two days have been spent on the road for the Major.  First Kent and then Bournemouth.  I stayed last night in Boscombe, a pleasant little spot.  My hotel was called Urban Beach, a trendy surf sort of place (not one in which the Major seamlessly blends in)…

I must say, the people were good, the room well appointed (if not a bit hot), the atmosphere relaxed and most of all the dining superb.  A beautiful fish dinner with excuisite flavour last night, this morning, the Majors favourite, eggs benedict, delightful – Bournemouth itself was busy with tourism but lively and nice enough.

I am just about over Frankels amazing Sussex victory although am looking forward to talking to Glenn, a colleague who was there on the downs for it, lucky man.  I saw a tweet earlier (sorry to whoever it was!) it was a quote about the best ever horse to have raced** Secretariat, they said that when he ran, the trees swayed.  Wow…. I think young Glenn knows the sentiment.

 Goodwood – Richmond Stakes – Group 2

Racing in Canford Cliffs colours, Harbour Watch is the one that the dogs are barking about.  He has won with ease…. strongly and readily are words that populate his race write ups.  In a yard where he is amongst 2yo stars, he must be good to be odds on here.  Can we get him beaten?

I believe we could, I have a 10/1 and a 14/1 pair that I fancy.  The only thing I have against Harbour Watch is a lack of evidence that he deserves his price and a slightly lower level of stable form from Hannon than is ideal.  OK, Hannon and Hughes had a nice 2yo winner today but he is sub 10% winners in the last fortnight.

The pair I fancy are the highly tried Bannock and the lightly tried Bogart.  The latter is one of Ryans best apparently, the former has plenty of experience which can be useful in this race.  That said on strict form lines with Saigon, Bannock might struggle.  Casper Netscher is the horse we are judging a few of them through and in the end, despite likeable connections I am going to assume this form is short of top class.

This leaves me with my 14/1 selection in the Richmond, good luck to you Bogart, bring home the bacon.  However, this is not my guaranteed winner*!

Galway Guiness Handicap

Galway is magical.  Weld has won ELEVEN races this week so far, incredible.  As the Major highlighted earlier in the week, he is the only trainer to follow.

Galway is a tough festival from a betting perspective.  Some Galway races finish and you think why on earth was I not on that.  This was true today in the Galway Hurdle.  Some other races finish and even when the results are in front of my eyes I wonder if I am dreaming.  Losing punters are left feeling like they could have done better.  This is the result of so many complex trends and stories that so many winners look likely after the event.

Tomorrows handicap is tricky, potentially lucrative but insanely dangerous.  It is akin to being blindfolded and at a Berlusconi Bunga Bunga party but knowing Susan Boyle*** is also a guest.  Choose wisely and rich rewards await.

Dawariya is the class act in the tomorrows Guiness Hurdle.  At 13/2, she just seems to be the obvious choice for the Major.  On debut she was respectable.  At Ballinrobe uncomfortable, but she is better than that, her handicap mark looked light when winning with something in hand at Leopardstown.  She clearly has a bit more to give and who is to say that further opportunity is not there on her fourth start – Get stuck right it….

The Guaranteed Winner….. Thank me later

The Dee Hurdle at Bangor is one of the Welsh courses big races.  On a day where eyes will be again at the two main festivals, Bangor holds a tidy handicap over an extended 2 miles, it has attracted 8 interesting runners.

There is a certainty here too for the Major.

The Major has a slight fear about the Jigsaw Man whose good to firm ground record is superb but it is not the winner.  The winner… and I am shourting this…

is KNIGHT IN PURPLE available at 4/1 right now but I fully expect this to tighten up rapidly in the morning.

Knight in Purple is a hold up type and there is pace aplenty in this race…. Trust the Major, have I ever let you down?

*The Majors guarantees are about as solid as Lehmann Brothers

** This is guaranteed!

*** Mr Hadden, I accept she is probably your thing!