Good morning from fine Pershore where the Major prepares for another fine weekends sporting action in usual fashion. Good coffee has been bubbling away since 6am and the Major has been hard at work on your behalf securing you some of the finest value available. The world that a sporting gentleman occupies thrusts utterly relentless opportunity towards us. We have to navigate this torrent of golden reward and devious trickery with composed skill and a deft touch.
Significant profits like last week are always based on fine decision. The next layer of the onion contains losses, we were so close to losing, but we did win.
So today, celebrate this balance, this tightrope, this dance. Get involved, bet large, bet like a man, bet for the excitement, bet for the thrill, the interest, bet for no reason, bet with style, just make sure you take a bet and allow the tide to take you.
To recap The Majors last week, we had some tasty winning action and more than doubled our stakes (table below shows results to level stakes). The Major never gloats and never allows despondency. What else can we do though but celebrate last weekend, I hope you were involved. This has been a good few months and today we will take the enemy back to the schoolyard and once more spank his insolence from him. Enough, lets gamble.
Today is Betfair chase day, coupled with some fascinating premier league clashes and the eggball autumn internationals in full swing and the Major is a contented gambler.
I am going to start, as is custom on the Football Association pitches.
Last week we drew money from the Majors belief that Liverpools form was not a permanent fixture and that their win over Chelsea was an exaggerated piece of collateral form. I go into today looking at their home fixture with West Ham as equally precarious for them. They can ill afford to lose Gerrard and with Lucas also out and the non firing Joe Cole also absent, they are wholly over reliant on a touch of class from Torres in my view. 13/2 about West Ham with Victor Chandler would be my advice – Even with Scott Parker missing, the key to this fixture is what there is to lose. West Ham can play uninhibited, Hodgson could put himself under intense scrutiny if he loses.
Chelsea who visit St Andrews could desperately do with a win. The Major had this one right when suggesting there was something amiss at Stamford Bridge and although Alex makes a surprise and welcome return to bolster the centre back position, who knows if the issues are put to bed. This one is a watching brief only.
My favourite football bet of the weekend is Wolves to win at Blackpool. I have already given my view that Holloway would be best to focus on galvanizing his resources. I suspect the train will come of the tracks at Blackpool as a result of histrionics – Yes they will be unlucky, yes they will be unfairly treated, they probably won’t deserve it but I think Holloway is starting to line up his excuses. Mick McCarthy on the other hand remains utterly focussed on the job and feels like a proper leader. If Matt Jarvis doesn’t overcome injury then it is a huge absence but I fancy Wolves to take it anyway so 2/1 is a tasty betting proposition. Blackpools poor home form is also a factor – as is their inability to take Wolves effectively down the right flank where possibly the worst left back in the Premier League presides.
Shrewsbury will beat Southend and I am majorly shocked by the evens available. I thought this would be a strong odds against bet. Southend are injury ravaged and the noises muffling away inside Roots Hall are not good. Ten points already separate these outfits and with Robinson a good outlet for the Shrews, surely they would win this 3 times from 5 so evens is a super bet. Load the large cannon for this one.
I am tempted to put West Brom up to beat Stoke but was surprised at the pricing and so no bet advised. However, with Jara returning after the horror tackle that earned him a three match ban, I fancied the Baggies. Stokes recent win at home to Liverpool was shouted up by the Major as part of our superb last weekend but there shocking away form makes them vulnerable to an Albion outfit who play good football and will resume winning ways again if they discover that touch. Tempting but betting on your own team is one of the Majors fastest routes to the Poor House – Put the revolver hammer back gently.
Arsenal are a nice price to beat Spurs too in my other no bet. With key Spurs centre halves missing at the Emirates I would have fancied the Gunners to take advantage of a Kaboul / Gallas partnership that is less than ideal; particularly with Huddlestone out too. However, 4/6 about a team that can turn up in one of two minds, not for the Major thank you.
Bolton can beat Newcastle who are less organised. HAve a small slice at 6/5 odds against at home – Coyle knows his beans and this will be tough for the toon.
On the eggball fields, I fancy two in the handicap. Don’t say the Major is nothing but fair tipping up Englands return to form recently. Today I don’t think the 21 point handicap for Samoa will be enough – The pack will win it well before half time, 11/10 lovely.
Doubling that up with the All Blacks in their -14 handicap makes sense – A tasty rugby bet advised on the double. Nearly 4/1 that.
On track, I fancy Imperial Commander, especially as his price continues to drift. Pricewise plums for What a Friend and why not, this Nicholls horse has had a wind op (often the key at Ditcheat) and loves to go fresh. Imperial though is reported further forward than last year when he lost by a hair; although he was given a stone by the the mighty Kauto. It is interesting that Nicholls runs here given that as a Hennessy horse, What a Friend would carry one of the most lenient marks, take from that what you will. Nacarat was tipped up two weeks ago and won nicely for us, I don’t think he is capable of a repeat but wouldn’t put you off an each way slice on the big white hope. Chief Dan George has superb form in the book and if he found it again 66/1 would be huge, especially as he has a victory over Imperial in his locker. Tidal Bay equally could make 40/1 look absurd on one of his good days. The Major however sticks with the Commander. Let’s be honest he has all the form. His price will be honest because of two factors, Pricewise plumbing for What a Friend and the fact that apart from a novice hurdle at Newcastle, Imperial has done all of his winning at Cheltenham. Major followers understand this – Trends are there to be scrutinised, not trusted. I can accept that Imperial is a better horse going left-handed (conditions he has today), I could also accept that some horses are course specialists (Mr McGoldrick at Wetherby as a case in point) but not top class horses. Watch last years Betfair Chase, It was Kauto a dubious first; Imperial Commander second and fresh air all the way back to the trailers. There were good horses behind that day and today it is off level weights with the form in the book on the favourites side……. the prosecution rests and advises a strong Imperial bet but leave it until an hour before the off, or take Paddy Powers online price guarantee as you the advantage of the predicted drift.
Another Nicholls horse, another wind op, will Masterminded win on debut, hmmmm. It is incredible to think this horse is just 7 given his achievements. I believe he is back and will destroy them all bar Albertas Run who although class in his own right, is not the same – there you go, simples…. evens again.
Zaynar is the other hot fancy to rock up in the hurdle on debut. I thought it was interesting to hear Henderson talk about this as a World Hurdle horse which gives me concerns that today’s trip might not be enough on this seasons debut – Why is he also in cheekpieces for his last two runs, is he really going to give it the best on reappearance, might be wrong but I am staying clear. I do like Zaynar for future Grade 1 success but am going to stick with Silciniaco Conti who was an impressive winner when tipped up by the Major at Chepstow a few weeks ago. This Nicholls / Fehily team (36% strike rate this year!) have the unexposed horse and with Lough Derg in the field, they will go at a fair clip, small stake advised.
Great listed all-weather action today for hardcore fans. Hitchens to win the 3.40 at Lingfield is a decent bet with many of the other market leaders needing to prove they go on the poly. 5/1 is available with Laddies and Sportingbet.
One that was given to the Major by a master of the dark arts was James de Vassey in the Haydock 2.50, 13/2 is around, take a piece each way and I shall thank the tipster for you.
May this evenings fine dinner be Italian with a hearty Barolo to wash it down with. Tip generously, its what the Commander wanted as he pinged the last.
|THE MAJORS ADVICE LAST WEEK|
|Hearts to win at St Johnstone||6/4||£2.50|
|More than 3 goals West Ham v Blackpool||8/11||£0.00|
|Norwich to win at Reading||16/5||£0.00|
|Stoke to beat Liverpool||3/1||£4.00|
|Haye to win in the third||9/1||£10.00|
|Haye to win in the fourth||9/1||£0.00|
|Haye to win by stoppage||1/3||£1.33|
|Long Run to win the Paddy Power||7/2||£0.00|
|Berties Dream to win||9/2||£0.00|
|Sam Winner to win the Cheltenham Novice Hurdle||9/2||£5.50|
|Serious Drinking in the last at Wolverhampton||10/3||£0.00|