Tag Archives: double ross

The Saturday Sermon – National Hunt Feast from Cheltenham, Doncaster and Leopardstown – A splash of FA Cup Magic too

Good morning from the Major who writes from the bed gazing serenely across a brightening Worcestershire dawn.  Once again the land is waterlogged, the brook over my road and down 50 metres has flooded, the temporary lake resting with the confidence of permanence.

The Major caught rest in snatches through the night, the time between filled with a headphone in one ear, dreamily listening to the World Service, drifting in and out of concentration.  The words and stories came to me as images, patchy and alarming.  Two dead building World Cup stadiums in Brazil, one fell from a roof.  Syrian refugees.  A bomb, half a ton of high explosive in Cairo destroying the oldest Islamic museum in the world, thousands of artefacts dating to before the time of Christ.

Coming awake is like leaving another world behind.  I need a shower to leave that night world where it belongs.  To delineate properly the border, reinforcements are needed to stop it seeping into the day world.

This week, Barney Curley landed a mothership.  Now, enough has been said for me not to bore you with my opinions but safe to say I love the skullduggery of racing as much as the next man and the suggestion it puts people off is a nonsense.  People are attracted to the richness.  It helps that I managed a touch on it myself.  I saw the Eye of the Tiger gamble and got 7/2 overnight, thanks to @yahwey I caught one other too, Indus Valley which I got at 10s.  Attractive prices but oh, how I wish I had gotten wind of the other two…

Cheltenham races today – Trials day.  I would be present but for the birthday of number one son, Daniel, he eight – Under ideal circumstances I would have taken him but at the age, the Science Museum and friends and family seems more attractive to him… He is a long term project, give me time.

Last week showed well, we travelled into the Sermon perfectly with a 6/1 winner and hit the mark with Melodic Rendevouz – I still managed to make the weekend a losing one after piling in most my bets to multiples including Wigan… They lost three nil at Doncaster.  The misery piled up in sedimentary layers… I saw they went one nil down… Then we went live to the Keepmoat for a goal update and it was two… The energy for the weekends punting seeping away, rapidly draining.

The same was true yesterday, after lunch I tuned in to see that Noel Fehily had won in the opener at 12/1 – What a start to the day… My Fehily multiple was looking in fine order.. It was to be the last winner he had – In fact, I did not manage another placed horse.  Disappointing.  Still, there will be many a false dawn before our own Curley sized mothership.  Indeed, you may have time to grow an oak from an acorn or you may be planning the spending tonight… who can tell.

Daub thy warpaint young warriors, we shall ride flank to flank, tight formation, with lances raised awaiting the order…. To the sports..

Cheltenham Card

No surprise, Cheltenham has gone heavy overnight so we are looking for some horses who can take it.  Out goes, The Giant Bolster (never liked him anyway), in comes Restless Harry (loves heavy and is Pricewise).

Goodwood Mirage is one of the most expensive national hunt recruits you will find, reaching 380k for his services, you would expect a lot.  Yet, price does not buy success in racing, particularly national hunt and the memory of Un Temps Pour Tout, who tempted me in with his 450k price tag (most expensive ever by the way) and failed.

Nick Williams has not had many runners but has Le Rocher who held Kentucky Hyden on heavy at Chepstow – On that form he is of clear interest and proven on the ground, hmmm.  Then the favourite, Vincezio Mio – Clearly Nicholls thinks a lot of him.  Ronaldinho is not a forlorn 20/1 shot if you read the list of horses the trainer has won this race with in the past – Katchit, Franchoek, Walkon and Grumeti.  Plus a 100/1 shot took this in 2010.  His Newbury race might not be that bad and although he was well beaten, he was prominent until after the last – He may be a non stayer, he may have needed it – We should certainly afford him the same flexibility we might afford Goodwood Mirage or Vincenzo Mio on those grounds.

It is a difficult race to make a call on.  Nicholls thinks a lot of Vincenzo Mio but he has not traditionally aimed his top guns at this.  I have to support Le Rocher over Kentucky Hyden but Nick Williams has not had many runners lately.  Sod it, I am sticking with the money… Goodwood Mirage  gets the tentative nod at 5/1.

Dark Lover has both course and ground form and so gets the nod in the second race which is a trappy handicap.  I considered the chances of Samingarry and Renard D’Irlande who both could go well, the former having the measure of subsequent grade 1 winner, Annacotty who I struggle to see overhauling him on these terms.  Anyway, 9/1 is available about my selection, with 10s in a place, if you have ever heard of Unibet!

I am not convinced that genuine heavy ground will suit Double Ross and so with an 8lb rise to contend with, I am going against the improver who I backed last time out.  Cedre Bleu is a horse I have followed and I like his chances but I am sticking with Venetia Williams and Aiden Coleman, a combination that is having a great season.  Shangani was a good festival runner and should be OK in conditions.

The Argento Chase market is led by Rocky Creek who is decent but at the prices, I am overlooking.  The same combination I liked in the previous saddle up with Houblon Des Obeaux, who has a number of fans.  Pricewise beat me to the punch with pointing out the chances of Restless Harry who loves it this soft and came back with a bang last time out.  The Giant Bolster needs good ground and Harry Topper is ridiculously burdened with the most weight of all.  No, regardless of ones thunder having been stolen, I am with Restless Harry too.

Maybe Lizzie Kelly will prove a great jockey, maybe it is the folly of love (she is the daughter of the trainers wife, who is also the owner – follow?) but I am surprised that a jockey with just ten rides to her name gets a ride on a horse with a live Grade 2 chance.  That said, she has won 4 starts, including twice with this horse, last time on New Years Day at this course.  Not for me.

No, I shall focus on the two market leaders, Red Sherlock and Rathvinden, both of whom are proven in the mud.  I am readily behind Red Sherlock who has been winning lesser races effortlessly.  His preparation is one that suggests the stable (although not my favourite yard) hold him in high regard and I am minded that he at least has the course form.

Then the big one and the big question – What remains of the incredible ability of Big Bucks?  He is only eleven but is bidding to win having been off the course for over a year.  If he was not so talented, passing him over would be easy.  His age and these injuries mean are hard to overcome and there are a couple of progressive horses lining up against him.

In these staying races, age can play less of a part as speed is less important than class.  Yet, the age does trouble me.  Big Bucks has occasionally looked like a horse that is not straight forward.  He has lost the jockey that really understood him too.  It is enough for me to look elsewhere.  I may well look very foolish come 3pm but my prediction is… pulled up.  I really hope that he comes home OK – Nobody wants to see a champion humbled, let alone injured.

I was a big fan of At Fishers Cross coming into the season but you have to be tempered by his performances.  I am not sure what has happened there but he looks one to pick up again after he has had a summer on his back.  Mind you, a return to form would be dangerous for the field as he is unbeaten at Cheltenham in three starts.

Reve de Sivola is a horse I have backed on a few occasions but never quite get right.  He seems better than ever now back in staying hurdles and my thinking is torn between his proven class and the potential of the Mullins raider Boston Bob.  Reve de Sivola causes me some consternation about Cheltenham having won twice from twelve starts…

Sod it, 9/1 is too big – I am hoping, it is hope, that At Fishers Cross has whatever issues behind him and can bring back the magic.  Surprise!

It could be that throughout the card I have not scored a single winner.  On the other hand, we could be holding that mothership ticket going into the last.  Seeing a Brian Ellison horse being backed (Totalize) is a signal but I am thinking that the handicapper may have taken a chance with Lac Fontana who is 7/1 generally and 8s with 888.com ironically.

Doncaster Tips

Is the drop in trip for Annie Power going to inconvenience her… no.  Is 1/5 a backable price… probably – She has been dominant in her races and looks a top class prospect.  It certainly looks like this is a signal that she is heading for the Champion Hurdle, which makes the Pricewise (third time I have mentioned him this morning!) 14/1 advice very sound.  Reading between the lines, I cannot understand why the yard would want to do it and have come to an unfounded speculative conclusion that Mullins himself would go to the stayers race but that Ricci wants a Champion Hurdle runner and ultimately, it is the owners horse.

Anyway, the two horses I am interested in at Doncaster are Caid Du Berlais who I want a lumpy piece of at an incredible 9/2 with 888.com (generally 11/4).  That price may be wrong and I am happy at 11/4 if I cannot get on.

I find Mart Lane an interesting runner in the Sky Bet Chase and his last run looks interesting.  Unioniste is no doubt a very good stayer but I am concerned that his exploits in Ireland both expose his limitations at the top level (Still excellent in this context) and more troubling, may have taken a physical toll – It was a tough race.

Alas, I am following a horse that will enjoy conditions and may well have some more improvement – Kruzhlinin.  He can be backed at 11s… Have a slice.

Leopardstown

Paul Townend has suffered the effect of Ruby being at home more weekends this year but gets a chance today on the Mullins first string in Ireland.  I rate him as a jockey and think he can take the Grade 2 Novice Chase on Djakadam.   Only 6/4 but I think this one will make a better chaser than hurdler and although less experienced and younger than his rivals, he gets some handy weight too.

Will Quick Jack keep up his relentless rise through the weights… Yes.

FA Cup action continues and my usual aim is to find overpriced Premier LEague teams away at Championship of League one clubs.  Swansea 21/20 at Birmingham City, Hull 10/11 at Southend and in League 1, Walsall at 7/5 and Wolves at 10/7.

The Martin Hill bet is a yankee including Quick Jack, Caid du Berlais, Red Sherlock and Wolves (if he can keep his breakfast down).

May your dinner be extravagant and in the best of company, with her wanton eye telling you to where her mind runs.

Courage friends, roll those dice.

The Saturday Sermon – Newmarket and Chepstow

Good morning from the Major who writes wearily but contented.  It has been a long week and I shall not trouble you, my good friends, with the travails that sapped at the energy, suffice to say that there are many slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.

Yet here we are at Saturday, the moment of the week I long for, before the sport has gotten underway, all of our hopes and dreams remain intact, untouched by the real world and the hazardous existence we live spinning on this fragile globe.  We can believe, just for a moment that today, we land the mothership.

In one sense I dread that day.  I think you know why.  I have such well tuned readers, the sorts of folk that risk it all in one turn of pitch and toss and lose and start again at their beginnings but never breathe a word of their loss.  You know why I fear catching the thing I chase, purpose.

For 200 odd Saturdays I have galvanised myself, come rain or shine, sickness and health, from green Worcestershire scenes to foreign fields; to collect and record my views of the weekend sport, maintaining the view that one day an amazing combination would land.  The pursuit gives me something to hold on to, a steady post in the maelstrom of existence, a commitment and a piece of unfinished business. Purpose.

To land the mothership, to remove that purpose, what then dear friends.  We do not know.  Things would change immeasurably, beyond the wild celebrations, accepting the accolades, a darkness exists, that I could fall between those cracks is certain..

So why pursue it then.  Why keep writing and sharing racing tips? Well for one, (and I shudder at the realisation) I must love the sound if my own voice. A fool uttereth all his mind but the wise man keep it in till afterward, Proverbs.

Is that it? Well no, consider this dear friends, imagine not pursuing glory, just think about that, 200 less moments of hope, of virgin dreams.  That is not to slip to the chasm, it is to lose your grip and plunge hurtling down permanently, twisting through the darkness, losing any sense of direction – The spark leaps from the fire and dims until extinguishing itself, so stay close to the fire, stay bright.  It is good to be alive.

To the sports.

I love Cesarewitch day, ever the heady days of 2007 when Sir Clement Freuds column which was worth the Racing post cover price alone tipped up Legspinner at 14/1.  I was at Cheltenham races that day and me and a couple of good friends were having a decent day, I seem to remember Joe Lively being our big course winner and topped up with Legspinner well, we had a royal time and steak for dinner.

Newmarket Future Champions Day

The ground at both Newmarket and Chepstow where the Major concentrates his energy could be a significant determinant factor in the outcome of the races and the Major has to take a view.  The decision I have made based on reports and forecasts is that both courses will play slow and soft and I want to be on horses where those conditions play to strengths.

The Dubai Challenge is the opener on the cards at Newmarket and one could do worse than focussing on three year olds who have a good record in the race.  Highland Colori showed last time that he has plenty of ability and a reproduction of that run might put him close.  My issue is though that with these sorts of runners, a reproduction of anything is a big question mark and so with a little caution I am opting for Amarillo the German raider who is certain to like soft conditions (should they arrive).

The Middle Park is the first of two Group 1 races where we get to see two of the big guns from the O’Brien yard unleashed and ready to do some damage.  Great White Eagle was about as visually impressive a winner as you can get on debut and I think may be very good.  He is out of Elusive Quality who is bred out of the Darley US operation and so you might be forgiven for thinking, what not a Galileo, not a Montjeu?  Elusive Quality has a progeny record of excellent juveniles (4 times has produced the US juvenile champion) and we would probably know his son Ravens Pass best.  Look, I know you are probably thinking, why did I come here to read that Great White Eagle might be brilliant, but what can I do?  He might be.  Get on.  2/1.

By the way, if Supplicant outruns his 8/1 price in this race, have your trigger finger on the bet button for the 3.55 at York where Rufford is 7/2 at the moment – The tied Mill Reef form would get a tremendous boost from Supplicant.

It gets worse.  I think War Command will also trounce the Dewhurst opposition.  A lot was made of the form of the Coventry with most speakers detracting from its value but again, the visual prowess of the win for War Command spoke volumes of the class he has.  He is out of another American Sire, War Front who has also sired Declaration of War (following all this?) – The Sire works out of Clairborne Farm and in the last few seasons seems to be producing much better crops (6th crop in all).  Dont shoot the messenger, I just think a tasty O’Brien double is in order.

In the big handicap, the Cesarewitch, I haven’t a clue.  I am guessing as much as the next man and so will opt for the well drawn, Murtagh assisted, Oriental Fox at 11/1.

Chepstow Tips

Chepstow has a decent day of racing for National Hunt fans and one stand out on the cards for me is Double Ross at 3/1.  This horse had to work hard to win over the chase fences at Perth but that was decent form and since he is proven over the big timber, I would take him against the obviously progressive looking Balder Success (Champion Hurdle runner) and Nicholls’ Chase debutante, Easter Day.

he 4.45 has a great value bet in my view in Swynmor at 15/2.  The Rebecca Curtis trained hurdler came down when arriving with a winning chance in the Grade 1 Future Champions race here in January and I think subsequent lacklustre performances were as a consequence of that fall.  If that proves right then this could prove a tremendous price.

The Martin Hill bet is a double on Swnymor and Amarillo.

May your dinner be of the finest quality and in the finest company.  courage and roll those dice.