Tag Archives: fire lily

The Major is Back!! The Moyglare at the Curragh and Goodwoods Supreme Stakes

The Major has enjoyed a sojourn in the Vendee of France and must apologise for the first Saturday Sermon we have missed in some time.

When I left England’s fair shores we were in tremendous form, notably picking up Margot Did (adv 33/1) which seemed to score most of Birmingham’s fine denizens a tidy sum judging by the texts, emails, tweets, pints and phone calls received.

Shabash!

Well the Major returns and while the Saturday Sermon may have had an unusual break, Sunday racing is red hot and there are several group races.  Two of which the Major has taken a particularly keen view…..

3.20 Good Wood – Supreme Stakes – Group 3

Good to Soft at Goodwood is about as strong a punting condition as the Major likes.  In a field trading at 4/1 bar, it is manna from horseracing gambling heaven.

Essentially we have a track not suited to all, in conditions not suited to all with 4/1 the shortest price of just ten runners.

I think this is a good storm of clues to the winner in a wide open market so…. where do we go…

Well first, let’s assess those with a decent strike rate on softer ground.  I can rule out most on this score and just about throw Doncaster Rover into the off cuts too.  While he has placed several times on good to soft, it seems good is his best ground and as a 4/1 shot, I want better.

Certain positives for the ground are Balthazars Gift, Hooray, Libranno and The Cheka.

The Cheka is going to have a hard job giving weight all round to this field so is ruled out.  The jury has to remain out on Hooray who would not be a shock at 4/1 if coming good but really has something to prove after flopping in Ireland.

Libranno has some superb Ascot form against Society Rock but followed it up with a stinker at Deauville where if soft ground got the better of him, there are concerns about conditions for tomorrow.  Richard Hughes has spoken softly about this one in the past though and it is reasonable to expect the horse has more to offer.  My main concern is that this is the eighth race this season for the three year old who may just be the type to be well served by a break.

With the three at the top of the market with question marks, you have to take a look at Balthazars Gift at 14/1.  At 8, the horse has few secrets and has little form to his name this year but may be better suited by these softer conditions.

There is rarely a shock in the Supreme with one 14/1 winner the only big price victor of the last 12 years.  After that a 7/1 and 5/1 and then it is favourites largely.  I am not sure I trust the trend emphatically though.

Instinct leads me a different way.  Karam Albaari at 16/1 (Paddy Power / Boylesports) might just be my answer.  Now you must have an imagination for this one but here goes…

On debut he won a reasonable handicap at Kempton before being stepped up in class to Group 2 company in last years Champagne Stakes.  He finished fourth at a royal 50/1 price, no disgrace.  He went on to Group 1 company in the Racing Post Trophy finishing 6th in that Group 1 to Casamento, Native Khan, Master of Hounds and Seville – Blue blood company indeed.

His reappearance has been delayed and conditions have to be taken on trust but…. I cannot help myself from taking a slice of the unknown at 16/1 when so many of the main bunch look dodgy.  Hooray and Libranno are possibly next best but it is Karam Albaari for the Major.

The Moyglare – The Curragh

What a cracker we have to decide on the best current filly in Ireland.  No British raiders, this is an all Irish affair.

Maybe is trading as the warm 5/6 favourite and you can see why… this will be her 5th success on the bounce to maintain an impeccable career.

She is ridden by the young JP O’Brien, who without his claim could have been a liability but after his ride earlier this year on Roderic O Connor, you have to feel the young man is a star in the making alongside William Buick and Michael Barzalona.

I do not feel like backing Maybe though.  This race often springs a surprise and the bet of the card for me is Fire Lily.  10/1 is a fair price for this filly who has gone down to the smart looking Best Terms twice but has beaten After, inbetween.

That form is fine enough but I also think this lady has been looking for a step up to 7f the way she is often flat to the boards and staying on.  In fact I think a mile might be already her optimum distance but an extra 200m tomorrow will certainly help her style of racing.

If anything is to beat the O’Brien star filly, I go for the one from the same ownership, Fire Lily.

Good luck all and shuffle those cards.

Thursday York Card – Yorkshire Oaks Day – Big Price Tips 25/1, 20/1, 12/1 and the rest – Set your stakes to dangerous

Good evening from the Major – Our one shot wonder tip on Monday came romping in at an SP of 5/2, advised 7/2 and while the Major had no time last night to review the opening card of the Ebor meeting, I have had a look at the riches of tomorrows races.

To York, to battle, Shabash young Pathan

Good luck to Mike, Holly, Chris and the Stickeyes team at York – Hope you have a great time, that link is for you and from such a major internet hub as themajorversusthebookie, it will have an impact on your business – I hope between the conversations held tomorrow around how you can get Holly’s party bus #reactivated, you find some winners in the card preview I have prepared.

To all – The Major is taking a summer break. I may have a few brief posts from France, I may have the odd guest tipster pop in but normal service including the recently highly profitable Saturday sermons will return from 30th August.

Let us see if I can board that ferry with a wedge of Euros fit to permit an English gentleman to romp through the provinces of France enjoying the best of their food, wine, brandy and women of darken eye with wanton glint.

The Majors trip to France coincides with next Sundays Prix Morny card from Deauville. I may try to make it, I will file a report if I do – Petetre, this will require a significant draw down on the bank of Brownie Points, n’est pas, c’est la vie.

To York, the Knavesmire and a battle with that filthy enemy, lying low in the gutter a tinge of red in his eye, dark sodden heavy clothes swathe his wire frame. With an air of wickedness and a smell of decomposition, do not be fooled, his mind is a devious swirling vortex, his prices set to fool those of weak mind.

Fear not, the Major is here to help. We shall daub our war paint and I shall slam my staff into the ground, to battle.

2pm Yearling Stakes

The prize money on show for this Class 2 is such that it attracts some of the finest juveniles. I am sure this deserves group status, maybe this will change next year.

There are plenty of interest in the twenty runners and perhaps the one that has shown best form has been Crown Dependency. This Hannon entry (one of three for the famed juvenile specialist) was defeated a mere two and a quarter lengths in the high class Norfolk Stakes.

That day Crown Dependency was pinched for room and so you could argue was unlucky. He was however well drawn and raced on the right side of the track and overall 3/1 seems very stingy against this field. That said, big race and big field experience is a benefit. Well regarded for top connections but not for the Major.

So where do we go? Last year this race was won by Wootton Bassett the Fahey horse who had a stablemate back in third. His best filly this year, Miss Work of Art seems exposed and so the Majors search for a winner…. continues.

Well, having spent some time trying to read which maiden races may be the ones to track, I am interested in the twice raced Gerfalcon. The Salisbury race is proving to be the source of other future winners and so that Class 5 win is worth more than the bare result. Of some interest.

Hestian is a real eye catcher. The Naas race which this rather fetching bay colt took could not look better with second An Ghalanta going on to win again and earning a rating of 95. This one looks decent and I much prefer this 6/1 to the 3/1 about Crown Dependency.

This is not the selection though, although it probably should be. For that I go to a horse that is priced at 20/1, Roger Sez. This horse has enough experience for these big races having raced 4 times and won 3. It is overpriced in my view based on its ugly way of winning. It tends to be off the bridle before most but is a scrapper and will punch on regardless. The last Newmarket win was in a good standard of race and I am willing to risk that the horse is under rated at the price.

2.30 Lowther Stakes – Group 2

What a cracking little renewal, here come the girls – Some of the best European fillies do battle. A Queen Mary winner, the Cherry Hinton winner and Fire Lily who is well regarded, not to mention Angels will Fall, a previous winning tip from the Major.

Best Terms, the Hannon horse must be feared and would be a serious candidate but in good to soft at York, I am not convinced that her prominent style will suit. That said, I think 8/1 is a great each way bet.

The give under foot is a a significant factor and one that gives us decent evidence of a likely big run from Angels will Fall.

This is a tougher contest than the Group 3 won by her when tipped up by the Major at 8/1 and she beat some decent sorts. The way she finished that day suggested there was still more to come. Some edging was involved near the finishing and so it is reasonable to expect further improvement with experience, 4/1 feels about right maybe with a little of the pricing on our side, I would not put you off.

However, the Major opts for a piece of value again. At 12/1 Hello Glory seems ignored. The maiden she won near the end of July was good. She took it well, coming from deep. The second that day went on to win another maiden with comfort and I suspect that Hello Glory has plenty more to give.

I think her price is helped by the fact that she is not involved in the form lines of the main protagonists and so less considered. Shabash, get stuck in – Right or wrong, I never hesitate to follow a thought that is against the crowd, come on Hello Glory, show me I am right!

I love racing – that sense before you witness how the event which you planned so well in your head, that moment where every opinion you have is certain fact… It is as though the whole universe was created solely for your own purpose, moulded about you.

3.05 Goddard Stakes

This mile handicap is a tricky conundrum in a puzzle, disguised as a mystery. 20 runners improvers, suspicious horses on kind marks on old forms, the enemy slinks in the shadows of such cards. Where to cast thy eye with trust?

The Major spent most time on this race but feel I remain least informed. That said, a few things caught my eye.

On Ground – Axiom, Harrison George, Pintura, Masked Dance, Leviathan?, Roker Park (if more rain)

On Recent Form – Pintura, Markazzi, Axiom, Smarty Socks

Pintura looks quite well treated for his Ascot run, up just 2lbs for a tasty 3rd.

Lovelace (40/1) is one to watch like a hawk in the market. It has dropped like a stone in water through the weights and a bit of cash might just signify a return to form. Harrison George has a similar profile as does Cashelger and Mont Agel.

Accepting we might be beaten by a horse returning to form off a plummeting mark, I am looking for an improver. The one I opt for is the unlikely 25/1 shot Roker Park. I will be more interested if there is more precipitation but this mud lover has had decent recent form with the exception of the run last time. He was staying on at the finish though and Hoof It the winner is widely accepted as a group horse masquerading as a handicapper. 25/1, have a tasty slice and send me the postcard!

Of the rest, Axiom and Pintura are of greatest interest.

3.40 Yorkshire Oaks

This Group One, champions series race is another reason that if God were walking the Earth, he would head up the M1 on his motorbike wearing no crash helmet and spend an afternoon in the good Yorkshire air.

Banimpire is a tough cookie, she has improved and battled through every race. It is with hesitation I suggest she won’t have the class to win this. 6/1 is very fair.

Blue Bunting, the 1,000 Guineas winner is of most interest. 11/4 is an honest price held up by the other quality in the field.

Crystal Capella while looking better than ever this year, is probably held, although I think the Stoute yards string are looking well of late. Laughing Lashes is one I would consider to be better than 10/1.

Overall, 11/4 Blue Bunting is a price for me. Here is some analysis for you that only the Major would provide… In the last ten years, 5 winners of the Yorkshire Oaks have been classic generation (3 year olds) and 5 older horses. In the last twenty years, of the eleven classic generation winners, the biggest priced winner of all eleven was just 7/2. When there is a fancied 3yo running, it bodes well.

Listen to the Jesus voice in your head, you know it speaks the truth … Now back Blue Bunting with a roll of notes fit to choke a reasonably sized European mammal …… thank me later.

4.15 – Galtres Stakes

How Mirror Lake was dropped two pounds for a very decent second in a listed race last time is a mystery to the Major. That said, 8/1 as a price is OK but the Major is uncertain of the form of the Perrett string. Considered with a luke warm view.

Wild Coco is a Stoute horse who if you put a line through the last run on the grounds that the conditions did not have enough cut, looks like a horse on the improve. Interesting.

The same has to be said of Field of Miracles whose Banimpire form gets tested in the Yorkshire Oaks – If the firmer conditions were against last time, then this will be more like it and a big run should be anticipated. Exciting.

All of these are contenders but the Major opts for Amazing Beauty at 8/1. This O’Brien horse stayed on well over this distance at the Curragh and while her form is a little hit and miss, there is enough to suggest she could have more to follow.

4.50 – The Lucky Last – Eventmasters.co.uk Stakes

Mother of Mary. Another 20 runners, another puzzle. Let’s get lucky.

Sea Change could be of interest if tuned up after a long time away from the track. Interesting and money would be significant.

The one the major is attracted to though is 7/1 Tuscan Gold. This 4 year old is up 20lbs since May 2010 and the improvement is unlikely to have stopped. Already gelded, this horse looks like he has a decent chance of bagging a race at this level and in the hands of Sir Michael Stoute, I am happy to back a big run today.

Good luck to you. In the last few weeks, one regular follower has dropped me notes of thanks. The Major has a simple view, none are required. You can read the information for free, that is as far as my obligation goes. Either choose to follow it or choose not to. I do not profess to have miracle answers but I do back horses to profit on the blog which is proven in my results (not updated in many months as lost the motivation too!). Do not blame the information provided, only question how you used it! In this relationship, the Major refuses to accept your criticism as much as I cannot accept the praise for a decision you made.

Courage and shuffle the cards.