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The Saturday Sermon – The 2,000 Guineas Edition

Good evening from the Major who writes weary from his bed.

I have spent the day studying, the macroeconomic performance of Turkey to be specific.  My mind feels full, spilling over at the edges.  Sleep is coming to me but not before I pen a brief post.

Brief itw ill be.  By necessity.  I have been posting Saturday Sermons for many years and the fact that I need to begin study again early enough to warrant a 5.45am alarm call shall not be impediment enough.  No your humble correspondent is here some rain or shine.

To be honest, after a day of interest rates, inflationary pressures, aggregate demand, marginal costs et al, the opportunity to allow thoughts to pour from me is welcoming.  Even tired, I draw to the jug like a thirsty man, I shall drink just a little at a time.

Economics… It is founded on a principle that agents shall act rationally.  How awful if life were that predictable, I am grateful that it is not.  Rationality would dictate that each of you is here to maximise your own position, presumably you are after a ‘read’ on a race that will bring great wealth to you (unlikely to happen I am afraid).

Still I wish for you bountiful golden coins spilling from the enemies satchel, you bent of knee scooping them greedily into your arms.  Scant chance, the Major’s form is not great.  Still we shall try for the mothership once more.  Daub thy war paint young warriors, the sun blazes in the sky, the cool early summer air is on our faces and we feel alive, which is good as the alternate is much more sobering.

Newmarket – 2,000 Guineas Tips

It always seems so early in the season when the first classic is thrust upon us.  Some of the contestants have only been on a racecourse a few times, in the case of Mars, just the once.  We are trying to piece together what in a few months would look far more obvious.  What is missing is part of the fun.

So much of our work is done on guessing the comparative form of trials, trends, breeding and hype.  The last is a worthy component to calculate with, do not dismiss the hype, instead, interrogate it – Consider its source and weigh it in the balance.

An obvious place to start for the Guineas is the O’Brien team.  Ballydoyle have won 6 of the last 15 starts and I have an even more interesting observation.  They often arrive mob handed for these affairs but every time they have taken the bounty, it has been with their number one jockey.  Some yards are not so reliable but in the big races, Ballydoyle seem to know their best chance… so they should, they have had the chance to work them together!

That takes us to Cristoforo Colombo whose form figures of 132S4 hardly scream top three year old.  He has also been fitted with cheekpieces, another slightly odd sign.  His form with Dawn Approach in the Coventry gives hope but on balance, I am not convinced.

George Vancouver is an interesting runner for Ballydoyle.  He has already been to the States to take on North Americas best at the Breeders Cup, given he finished third in the Juvenile there (arguably the best form on offer) – He seems out of favour here but I think it is an each way bet.

For win purposes though, I look no further than Dawn Approach.  Not exciting I know but the two genuine top class looking colts here are my tip and Toronado.  I favour mine (best price 15/8) because the Dewhurst has a better prep run trend than the Craven.  What a great piece of business a win would be for his sire, New Approach .

Time flies, it was five years ago that Kevin Manning was riding the sire to within a whisker of winning the 2,000 Guineas himself.  He was rallying in the final furlong and just failed to get up to beat Henrythenavigator, the Ballydoyle favourite.  New Approach had his day in the derby as we well know but let’s hope that tomorrow, his son can exact some family revenge….. I’m in large.

Other Newmarket thoughts

At a price I like Tangerine Trees in the Palace House Stakes who can be backed with BetVictor at 16/1.  This is a Prix De L’Abbaye winner let us not forget who has been poor in many runs, as these sprinters will be.  A return to some sort of winning ways last time at Musselburgh might signal that the kettle is starting to boil again, so I am dipping in my tea bag…. oh christ, did I follow that metaphor through?

My final bet at Newmarket is Country Western who is freely available at 2/1.  This is a smash up sort of price for a horse that looks thoroughly on the upgrade.  Load the cannons.

It is a short post so no time to review much else.  Instead I suggest a few in the football I like…

Villa are 2/1 to win at Norwich but they will be buzzing after their demolition of Sunderland and this could be the day they put relegation fears away.  I like Swansea at 9/2 to beat Man City.  I often think they are underrated and could well take the spoils.  In the Championship, Wolves look a spent force and Brighton at 18/19 is a must bet.

The Martin Hill Lucky 15: Dawn Approach, Tangerine Trees, Country Western and Wolves.

I trust your dinner is fine and taken in good company.  I hope your wallet falls to the table bursting at the seam with the plunder from the days pillage.

Courage, roll those dice.