Tag Archives: goldikova

Mondays 12/1 Tip at Deauville – Plus, a lot of work for nothing…..

I was dead chuffed to see that my tip for Sundays listed race at Pontefract went so well.  Although never quite looking like it would catch the leader Darajaat returned a 40/1 second to pay a tasty sum on the place.

I have spent most of tonight studying in the hope of publishing a meaningful guide to which route major trainers take their best juveniles through on route to their classics.  I was hoping to get an angle on whether there are specific maidens that some yards target that although low value, they just prefer.

Progress is painstaking, mainly thanks to my slow broadband.  I might pop round to Mr Days and take advantage of his 50 wotsit bits per mega second.

Already I think I bit off a bit much and so I slimmed the job down to focussing solely on O’Brien and the Ballydoyle operation.  I have a few interesting possibilities, maybe just coincidences but too early to tell.  It is harder than you think.  Having set some rules to what I was looking for, you then find them tested by loads of factors such as, should I consider thouse horses used as pacemakers?

I will let you know if I conclude anything or whether I just have to hand those last 4 hours over to the good lord and question my sanity.

Anyway, I promised a 12/1 shot.

There is Group 1 action at Deauville tomorrow as part of their never ending summer festival season.  The Major is in France next Sunday and hopes to get to Deauville for the Prix Morny.  Hannon is sure to send a good one over (haven’t looked at the card yet), could be a cracking day out.

Tomorrows Jaques le Marois is a starfixture in this years festival as Supermare Goldikova the winner of 17 Group Ones rocks up.  She is evens favourite and odds on in places.  Can she be stopped?  Hmmm

This year she has had her colours lowered by the now retired Canford Cliffs.  This was Canfords 5th Group 1 on the bounce and was rightly described as the heavyweight world championship for milers.  Canford then had his own colours lowered by the mighty Frankel who seems to be in a league of his own.

Goldikova bounced back from her Canford defeat with a comfortable win at the opening of the Deauville festival beating Saphresa only narrowly but comfortably, that one reopposes today.

There is no doubt Goldikova is top class but Canford did put a crack in the near perfect visage, is the lady showing an age?

Conditions must play a part too.  It is a shame that given the quality of horse turning up tomorrow, the conditions are heavy.  Noone wanted this iat all.

Goldikova has handled cut pretty well in the past, although genuine good seems to bring the best out in her, bottomless conditions may give us a chance to get her beaten.

Goldikova should win but I am going to highlight the chances of Dick Turpin.  12/1 is reasonable for this Hannon raider who I think is the type to have a good back half to his season at 4.  He has beaten Cityscape before fair and square, yet that rival reopposes at a price of 8/1, doesn’t stack up for the Major.

He has also got close to Goldikova previously on his final 3yo run at Longchamp.  Just a length down, they reoppose off the same weight difference tomorrow (Goldikova gets 3lbs) and Dick Turpin is surely entitled to have developed significantly.

I also think Dick Turpin will handle conditions which is less certain of others.  All in all, I think he has an excellent chance of making the places and perhaps could lower the supermares colours if the conditions get to her.

As a win bet, I do not think Goldikova is bad either so maybe a reverse forecast would be in order too.

First Day of Ascot – Horseracing Tips

Good Evening from the Major on the eve of the flat racing spectacular, Royal Ascot.

Canford Cliffs and Italo make a nice 40/1 Double!

Admist the top hats, finery and plum accents, we are about to embark on 5 days of the finest racing in the world, full stop.  There may be richer races in Dubai and Hong Kong but no-one can match the history and worthiness of our very own Berkshire track.

The Major visited Ascot earlier this year for Sagoro Stakes day, it was only the second time I have been, having previously been during last years Royal Ascot week.  The new stand is immense and a credit to British racing.

To all those attending Ascot tomorrow, I wish you good luck, envy your good fortune and hope that the Majors tips strike home.

If you are going just tomorrow, you have arguably picked the best day of the week.  Although there are a plethora of Group One races at Ascot later in the week, tomorrow sees the explosive Frankel reappear after his 1,000 Guineas win as well as Goldikova, the relentless French raider taken on Canford Cliffs, apple of Hannons eye and we may well find out who is the best miler of a strip of Berkshire track.

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes

What a way to kick the racing festival off.  After the pomp and ceremony of watching the Queens carriage roll down the straight, the proper entertainment opens with what is race of the week for the Major.

The ground is a rare good to soft for Ascot, this could be influential.  I think it is already having an impact on the betting.

For me, the best miler full stop is Canford Cliffs.  He has a wonderfully explosive turn of foot and a great cruising speed.  The ground is the only question.

That said the ground is not much more likely to suit Goldikova, the French wonder mare.  Her record is insane, yet she is less likely to be at her best now soft appears in the going.  She has only lost 6 races of 22 and just once has failed to place.  Every none-victory came with good to soft or worse conditions.

Cape Blanco is one that will relish true good to soft ground.  Even with softer conditions, the view has to be that he needs further.

Rio de le Plata owes a big race, he is probably in too rich company here but I have always suspected this formerly well-regarded Godolphin horse will eventually come good.

On balance, Canford Cliffs for the Major at 6/4.  Goldikova won this so impressively last year beating Paco Boy.  Richard Hughes knows all about Goldikova having been soundly beaten on Paco more than once.  He knows what it takes to beat her and in Canford Cliffs he believes, and I am minded the same,  he has the ammunition.

Let’s get the week off to a flyer.  With the Queens colours being lowered by Pour Moi in the derby and a french flag flung over the victors neck as he trooped to the Epsom winners enclosure, we are due a slice back.  Let’s send Freddy Head home empty-handed and with just a small note explaining that we are coming in September and bringing Workforce to claim the Arc!!  I love racing, the heritage and story, few other sports offer us such riches.

3.05 Kings Stand Sprint

Well if that was not enough, why not follow-up with the Kings Stand Sprint, the 5 furlong sprint is furious and exhilarating.

The line up is as international as you can get.  Overdose the Budapest Bullet, soundly beaten on his last start in Britain is a tasty 12/1 but too much has to be taken on trust.

Star Witness the Australian raider is favourite at 9/2 and is well fancied.  The Aussies have a tremendous record in the Kings Stand and he has to feature on the short list.

A few weeks ago, the Major nailed Sole Power in the Temple Stakes at Haydock and that win was probably the best British springing form this year.  8/1 make Sole Power a decent each way shout as if he does not hit trouble in running, he will be finishing best of all.  The faster the pace the better.

Kingsgate Native is a high-class entrant for Middleton Park, 9/1 is fair.

This is wide open and so the Major is willing to take a wild stab at Monsieur Chevalier.  As a juvenile, Monsieur Chevalier was hugely impressive but he has clearly had his problems, missing all of last season.

On his return in average company he should beat, he ran into trouble and despite never threatening the leaders, had a satisfactory blow out staying on nicely in the final furlong.  25/1 makes Monsieur a superb bet – Bet365 and Boylesports are the only two bookies offering 4 places at quarter odds at the best price.

3.45 Ascot – St James Palace Stakes

Now it is simply absurd, three top class Group Ones to open the racing and here the superstar of his classic generation, Frankel looks to add to his hyper impressive CV.

If you were reading yesterday when guest blogger The Green Flash, put up his 2011 US Open Tips, you will have read the shocking news that I want to get Frankel beaten, is this possible?

My case is hardly bullet proof and a little based on gut instinct, but here we go.

No doubt, Frankel is a wonderful animal.  As a juvenile he was awesome and making his debut in the 1,000 guineas, he ran a freak of a race, bursting from the stalls to blaze his own pace maker and destroy the field.  It was a bizarre race to watch, he went off so quickly.  Most of his rivals tried to stay close and could not.  In the closing stages, opinion was divided, some believe he idled slightly but was fine, some like me feel he struggled to maintain the pace.

Crucially for the Major, Frankels time was not as phenomenal as the visual impression.  He caught them out.

Frankel should win.  2/5 gives little room.  Maybe I will regret this, maybe tomorrow night I will wonder why I didn’t back the banker that many believe Frankel to be.  I just feel that he may be a bit temperamental and he is against top class opposition.

What do I think will win?  Rerouted is 200/1 – Last time as Frankels pacemaker, he never got a foot in front!  Remember that this horse has one a group 3 in soft ground and 200/1 looks big, if Frankel shoots off again, this one could finish closer than many think.  Michael Hills will aim for a best finishing position if allowed.

The two I fancy are Grand Prix Boss and Wooten Bassett.  Grand Prix Boss at 20/1 is a bit of an unknown quantity.  If he has travelled well (Japan) then he could be better than many in this field and will come with a Far Eastern fan club.  Of interest.

Wooten Bassett was a well used quality juvenile.  While his reappearance run was poor, this is probably been the target and at 16/1 I give him an each way squeak.

Overall, I am going to risk Grand Prix Boss.

4.25 Coventry Stakes

This is the last race the Major is looking at on the opening day of Royal Ascot.  It is a Group Two and worthy of a tip!

The Coventry Stakes is a high-class sprint race for two-year olds where a lot is taken on reputation, trust and breeding which are factors that provide more evidence than form at this stage.

Gatepost 8/1 beat a host of subsequent winners at York but there are so many smart prospects that I want a bigger price.

The ones that interest the Major are Brocklebank 20/1, Campanology 33/1, Italo 16/1 and Trumpet Major 14/1.

Rather than make a case, I suggest Italo at 16/1.  This American raider made light work of a decent Longchamp field and although even more of an unknown quantity than most, will carry the Majors each way money.

Good luck for Royal Ascot

Survival Sunday – The Majors Tips, plus Goldikova, the Irish 1,000 Guineas – Amazing Saturday Service Results

The Saturday Service from the Major was the most successful of the year to date. Winners at 12/1 Sole Power and the Irish 1,000 guineas winner (Roderic O Connor) 4/1 from a handful of advices secured some good profits.

Apparently, there are bars in Birmingham now where I am welcome without my wallet. Nonsense I say, while the Major is moderately profitable all of the time, the big paydays only come along every now and then. I owe nothing, yet nothing is owed Well done to you Brumaggens who kept some plugging away at the selections.

Sunday is here, Survival Sunday…. In each of the games effecting relegation threatened teams, there are a gaggle of permutations regarding matters away from their own game.

Par example, If Wolves were losing by a single goal but Spurs and Manchester United were hammering their rivals, then you would not want to be on a Wolves draw why? This is because if Wolves lose by a single goal and two of Birmingham, Blackpool and Wigan lose, then they stay up. In that scenario, why would they push forward exposing themselves to conceding a second which might send them down?

There are lots of scenarios that could play out that could effect a teams approach to the game. In general, I would be backing Wolves to beat Blackburn. Wolves have done their best work in recent weeks and McCarthy sounds serious about getting the job done.

It is an interesting game at West Ham where both they and today’s opponents Sunderland seem to have checked out for the season. Nothing is backable there in my view.

I did put the Wolves draw up yesterday but am less confident today, they may only need a point and with Doyle absent, they may have to settle for just one. Blues look like they have none of the requisite firepower to trouble Tottenham in normal circumstances. They score too few goals and while Gardner, Bowyer and Ferguson play controlled possession football, it lacks a cutting edge. That said, they are likely to be the most fired up of the two teams on show at White Hart Lane and I am loathed to go against them.

Stoke is a bet I like. Wigan have looked reasonable in recent weeks as they battle the drop but they are against a tough team here. Stoke will guive them a more thorough examination than Villa or West Ham. I fancy Pulis to have his men wound up to finish a good season on a high note. 7/4 is too big, I think we can count on Stoke coming to the party. My only football bet today will be Stoke to beat Wigan.

12.45pm Longchamp – Prix D’Ispahan

Goldikova, one of the outstanding mares of her generation makes her final seasonal reappearance at Longchamp today with trainer Freddie Head reporting her in good fettle. If she turns up in reasonable spirit it should be enough to take this. She is not only top class but ultra reliable and I would be surprised if Head, an outstanding trainer, has not got her well looked after. Of the opposition, Dick Turpin has some class but loses too often for the Major, there is a race in him but not this one.

Byword looks great each way value and given some development from 4 to 5, you could expect more trouble for Goldikova from this one. He is likely to be fitter after a reappearance run. The two races Byword finished last season on were fairly poor though and at 4/1 there is not much allowance for that.

The others look short of top class. As the Major is not worried about Dick Turpin, I suggest a win bet on Goldikova 5/6 and a double with Stoke!

I hope she does win and I hope to see her against Frankel / Canford Cliffs in a mouth watering show down, bring it on.

The Irish 1,000 Guineas – The Curragh 4.15pm

There are many questions about this years leading 1m crop of fillies. Together who almost took the British 1,000 (probably the smartest piece of form on show) achieved that on the back of nearly ten runs and is clearly not a reliable proposition. That said it is dangerous to rule out an O’Brien horse in an Irish classic as the Major proved yesterday with Roderic O Connors all the way success in the boys event.

Misty for Me is of significant interest from the same stable. Very often O’Brien horses need their first run of a campaign (like Roderic) and Misty for Me was certainly the best juvenile filly in Ireland last year. If we can put a line through the reappearance run and assume she trained on then 10/1 is an absolute steal. Most Irish 1,000 Guineas winners need a run in the current season, a trend we can support as it makes sense. (Remember one of the Majors rules is to check the sense of any trend before applying it – As per my betting resolutions, it is no use relying on a twenty year trend in football such as Wigan have not won at Stoke for x years, what has that got to do with today? Am I to believe that Wigan players are traumatised by this information!) – In this case it makes utter sense, against the top milers we need a filly that is fit and ready.

On balance, I am wary of Misty for Me, think Together will get beat and am going to support Eminya. She is lightly raced but out of top connections and with a big stage jockey. If she breaks better than last tie, she will be seen in better light, coming out of stall 9, I don’t think Johhny will panic if she misses the break slightly though. She is presently 6/1 with Ladbrookes – Have a slice.

Finally, Beggars Opera goes again in the 4.05 at Fakenham (I bring you all the top action) – This one was tailed off when fancied by the Major. The booking of McCoy again asks questions – I am not advising it or backing it but feel it is sure to win unburdened by my wager, such is the Gamblers existence.

Cracking Sporting Weekend – Superb Target Rich Gambling Environment

Well good morning from fine Pershore where the leaden sky carries the weight of the Majors thoughts.  Last time out, we had a couple of horse winners but overall recorded a loss, with a particularly poor set of football bets, amends shall be made, the record will be set straight.

The coffee has been consumed, the research conducted and now it is decision time concerning the opportunities to give that duality of an existence, our friend and enemy, the turgid bookmaker; a good tanking.

I was pleased to see Mancini as short at 9/4 for the next manager for the chop.  This was advised at 25/1 by the Major in the post Triumph and Disaster.  Manchester City are not a good outfit.  Their best player wants to go and they seem incapable of fielding their best side and motivating them to put a shift of work in.  It would not surprise me to see West Brom beat them on Sunday and the 25/1 advice turn into a tasty little winner.

There is such a fantastic plethora of sporting opportunity this weekend for the Major.  On track we have the Breeders Cup (will Workforce go?), Hanagan versus Hughes,  and Kauto Stars run at Down Royal (Hurricane permitting!) – Some tidy looking premier league games, rugby, cricket warm up matches….. let’s start with the fussball.

A couple of no bets for me are Stoke and Fulham.  Sunderland were shocking in their derby game and I was very tempted to put Stoke up at 3/1 but for three factors.  One, Bruce is a decent manager who will have read the riot act to his players, Gyan is making his debut and looks decent to me and Stoke are crap.

Fulham could beat Villa who are winless in four and are missing their main three strikers in Carew, Heskey and Agbonlahor.  However, Fulhams own form is shocking, they have not won in five fixtures which included West brom, West Ham and Stoke….. I’ll sit that out too although a draw at 23/10 could be the result.

Lets have a look at some I will back.  Spurs at Bolton is a tight call but I think pricing Spurs at 6/4 gives enough incentive to follow Harrys boys.  I have no qualms about the Inter effect as Tottenham have rebounded from all of their European exploits well this season.  I am more concerned about Boltons organised outfit starving a decent Spurs team, particularly in the absence of Van der Vaart who I have been advising as 1st goalscorer to anyone that will listen, small bet advised on a spurs win.

A larger chunk of your role should be placed on Birmingham beating West Ham.  West Ham are missing one of their two influential midfielders in Noble and may also be without Upson.  This is quality they cannot afford to lose.  Birmingham have Jerome returning who will link up with the giant Zigic well and they should create chances through Hleb and Beausejour.  21/20 is available from Hills, evens is the general price, load the big guns.

Chelsea also look a good bet at Liverpool at a price of 11/10.  Let’s face facts, Chelsea would be clear odds on if Liverpool had not recovered to win 3-1 in midweek.  That game showed Liverpool for what they are, poor but with a world-class centre midfielder.  With Torres looking shoddy, I cannot imagine a scenario in which Liverpool win.  I accept that spirits may have been raised by two wins in a row and I know that Chelsea are not playing their best stuff either but I do fancy the boys in blue to raise their game in the Anfield clash tomorrow, confident suggestion.

Aidy Boothroyd is doing a great job at unfashionable Coventry and I would fancy them to win their third league game on the trot at home to a travel happy Leeds outfit.  7/5 represents a decent price.  It is no fluke that Coventry are fourth and although Leeds are just 4 points off them – Coventry won nicely at Sheffield United last time out, a price of 7/5 suggests Coventry would only win this five times out of twelve clashes, I think the numbers are in our favour. 

East Fife have appointed a new boss and the bounce back factor could make 15/8 a tidy price as they entertain a decent Alloa – Stick this in your multiples.

The Autumn internationals of the eggball sort see England entertain the All Blacks today at Twickenham.  I think the 11/2 for home victory may be a shade generous.  OK, you must fancy the All Blacks but there is reason for hope.  Sheridans return will bolster a front line and the England team seemed to be improving as the six nations developed.  It is a long way back to the last England defeat of New Zealand but allow yourself a patriotic one on this with a little touch of hope.

On track today, there is an awesome line up.  Let’s start Stateside with the always superb Breeders Cup meeting.  8 races, 6 Grade 1, 2 Grade 2!

Last night Midday failed to get up to win, finishing second in what I thought was Britains best idea of a Churchill Downs winner on the card.  Tonight, Sir Michael Stoute is still to decide about the participation of Workforce.  What a fuss he is making over the firm conditions.  Why he does not state his position I am unclear.  All week he has complained about the track and put forward that workforce is an uncertain runner without offering certainty over what conditions he sees fit to run his star.  It would be a travesty if Workforce did not run and I believe he will.  Sir Michael is lining up his excuses in my view but I am hoping he does not need any.

The most exciting horse in the world runs in the Breeders Cup Classic (10.45pm) and I think everyone will want Zenyatta to win her toughest ever test.  She has won 19 from 19 in her amazing career to stretch this to 20 on a surface she is unproven on against the colts is a big ask but then thats what the superstar equine performers do, perform miracles.  My heart pleads for Zenyatta the machine to win (Trainer of Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert said: When you see her go by horses, its like watching a killer whale play with seals).  However, my head says Quality Road may do it from the front.  He will be ridden aggressively and all I can hope is that Zenyatta comes hard at him in the straight and overpowers him for victory, it is all she deserves but 8/1 each way Quality Road for me.  Zenyatta could be vulnerable, it is famously more difficult to suit her style of finishing kick with the dirt surface that just gives horses slightly less traction…. I hope my gambling instinct is wrong.

In the preceeding race, Workforce is 7/4 to win the turf race which I think is a vulnerable price.  Al Khali at 14/1 is preferred.

Another cracking match bet in the 8.40 where two great rivals meet again – Who would tip Paco Boy to finally have an overdue and deserved victory against Goldikova?  At 6/1 an each way steal is available (Laddies), have some of that. 

While the flat world stars of Zenyatta, Workforce (my Arc winner), Goldikova and the like star at Churchill Downs, Kauto makes his usual debut at Down Royal in the JNwine.com.

4/6 on is not a bad price for Kauto who, as long as the Cheltenham form has not damaged his confidence and as long as he retains a half of his ability, should win comfortably – That said, I would want to see the weather conditions first.  There are some interesting competitors and I make Sizing Europe an awful 4/1 shot.  Killyglen, I suspect may still come good and China Rock at 13/2 is certain to put in a decent run.  Come on Kauto, put the pretenders to bed early and then lets see you next at Kempton on Boxing Day for a famous punch up with Long Run. 

As an early season race, I like the Badger Ales run at Wincanton (3.20pm).  Todays contest has some tasty runners and I like the chances of i’moncloudnine for Mulholland.  He is not my selection though.  After considering the Package who is a worthy favourite, my eye wandered to the pleasing sight of Meanus Dandy.  Nicholls loves taking this race and Meanus has had a sharpening spin already.  OK, it is a concern that he goes for headgear but a worth claimer in Popham talking 5lbs off an already handy 10s 2lb puts him right in it.  8/1 is available in many places.

The 2.10 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton has a host of potential winners in my view.  No doubt Australia Day has excellent claims and Ashkazar who won well for me at Cheltenham in April could be in the frame on one of his going days.  There is a horse I like in this race though that will be suited by the style it will be run.  There are so many front-runners (like Barizan) that pace is certain – This could set it up beautifully or the closing Nearby who can be found offered at 7/1 with our friends SportingBet.

Doncasters big November handicap offers a puzzle with 23 potential winners.  I plum for a wonderfully priced Lethal Glaze at 22/1 – TAKE THIS WITH SKYBET WHO OFFER 5 PLACES.  Lethal Glaze has been kept racing and I think new connections may get the best from a horse that shows glimpses of being decent.  I would advise a saver on Senate who at 6/1 with Ladbrookes will be a big threat for a stable that likes to compete for this £62k handicap.  

The Nap is a double on Chelsea and Birmingham City.  May your weekend be made more joyous with the uncomfortable bulk of a large roll of notes dispensed by your turf accountant – If he cries, tell him to man up… this is merely the start, you are one of the Majors s and we shall return.  May your dinner be french and good, something gamey.  Why not have a nice Brandy as an aperitif and a digestif too, surely that’s what Jesus would do.