Good morning from Pershore where the inky morning sky parallels the Major’s deep calm calculation of risk and reward as he prepares us for another weekends sporting battle. I hope you were on the handicap plot horse identified on Fridays Kempton card – Well done Ash, Nikki, Martin, Mark et al.
At 6am, the bowl of Coffee is a must
Pere Blanc returned 10/3 after being advised at 5/1 with Victor Chandler – Apologies it was a late night post, I had half a dozen email, texts and pigeons and 4/1 seems the best price anyone got for this one.
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The Saturday Service
Let me set your mind…. allow a moment of calmness and reflection, it is important to allow your sentient conscience to flow like a river, bending and winding around stubborn rock in our splendid onward journey relentlessly rolling on, roll on and on dear friends inexorably without rest, no quarter shall be given and none asked. Be peaceful now, the Major has posted, your anguish can be settled, bet like men (and women… you know who you are) and be at rest.
The coffee bubbled away from the earliest of ungodly hours and the Major has enjoyed several bowls already as we prepared delectable selections for your own perusal, I trust a couple may make it to your betting slip.
Drinking coffee from a bowl is a pleasure first introduced to the Major in Hemmingways ‘For Whom the Bell Tolls’. For those followers who have not read it, I urge you to do so for the haunting manful description of the Spanish Civil War through the eyes of Robert Jordan, the American protagonist and probable self-portrait…… guerrilla warfare, hiding up in the mountains…. Bowls of coffee, cheese, hung meat, skins of wine, strong tobacco, living under canvas, starry nights, snow-covered slopes, warfare, love, death and sacrifice….
Today is only one day in all the days that will ever be. But what will happen in all the other days that ever come can depend on what you do today. It’s been that way all this year. It’s been that way so many times. All of war is that way.
For Whom the Bell Tolls is almost Hemingways finest book, which in the Majors view is ‘The Old Man and the Sea’ which the Major intends to read on the night before his marathon run.
The bowl of coffee has merely assisted concentration as the Major prepares us for battle once more. We are in profit, substantial profit and the enemy wants it back. He will use his vast resources to come from all fronts. We shall respond with measured discipline. To the sports fields and tracks of Britain and Ireland….
What wonderful racing we can enjoy today, nine graded races, Leopardstown (Heavy), Newbury (Good to Soft) and Warwick (Good to Soft). As you browse the cards, producing horseracing tips is difficult, an embarrassment of riches, a target rich environment that is fraught with trap doors. Trying too hard, betting too frequently, lack of research, feeling you should….. fast ways to the poorhouse. We tread carefully in our search for value…
I love the Grade 2 Kingmaker which goes at Warwick – It usually throws up a nice Cheltenham sort. This year, Finians Rainbow seeks to dominate a small field for the third time in three chase starts this season. I expect he will and that’s why he is 1/3. I am happy to let this one go as I plan on getting after him in the Arkle when I think his unchallenging preparation might cost him. No bet advised but for those who must, Stagecoach Pearl for the wonderful Sue Smith at 8/1.
The Totesport Trophy, 3.35 Newbury is arguably race of the day. It is a terrific puzzle to solve as a horseracing and gambling fan. There are quite simply ten left in my calculation after putting lines through many – Even the top jockeys don’t know which of their stable prospects to ride. It is formidable, unsolvable to most and I probably include myself. Which evidence to use and which to discard… 21 Grade one potential Champion Hurdle sorts, this race is often used to unleash a stables prospect for the big one at Cheltenham. How does the Major see it?
I tipped up Walkon at 12s for his Ascot run when headed by Tiger O Toole. I think this race will be too much too soon and a potential bounce so I shall ignore the tempting 8/1 and look for better value.
This could be a very sticky good to soft given that we are on new ground (although it will have taken some racing by then) and there has been a downpour in Newbury overnight. It lends itself to a seasoned horse who arrives in good fettle. One targeted at the race rather than Cheltenham perhaps. The seasoned description though contradicts my view that we need a seasoned campaigner, how to resolve that balance? Upstart heading for the Champion Hurdle or horse with the know how who has 20 races under his belt and won’t get over excited!
If you want experience, it rules out Solix who the Major is very excited about seeing on a UK track. This french import for Henderson could be anything, the French form is hard to read but this horse is apparently (public knowledge, the Major has no one whispering in his ear, more is the pity) very impressive in his work at home. I cannot have him out of my thoughts.
Get me out of Here, the McManus and McCoy horse is right in the frame if he repeats last years efforts even though this might be a hotter field – The recovery from injury which has probably been responsible for below par runs is plausible but repeating the dose on a 15lb higher mark is a big ask. I am sure he will be tuned up but not for the Major.
Rebel Dancer looks an interesting sort but I think despite being a likely plotter for this race, it will find one or two simply too classy.
Tell us Willie, how good is Final Approach??? While you are at it, what wins the Champion Bumper??
8/1 the field gives us plenty of each way value. Make sure you bet well. SEVEN bookmakers are offering quarter odds terms and five places, make sure you are with Bet365, Skybet, Totesport, Boylesports, Bluesq, Paddypower or 888.
The Major has decided on the following as the main contenders. Solix, for reasons given, Final Approach – This Mullins sort picked up the MCR at Leopardstown, now raiding this valuable hurdle race, it has to be respected. I suggest taking both, Solix is best priced 14/1 with Paddy Power who go the 5 places, have a slice. Final approach can be backed at 10s with Coral and William Hill but is available generally at nines with those paying the 5th place. Personally I would take the tens. As you can see the Majors view settled on upcoming superstar rather than experienced old hands. Pricewise went for Soldatino, cannot argue on its novice form….. 8/1 but not the Majors selection.
The Aon Chase is a less complex affair (2.25 Newbury) and it looks like it boils down to the top two in the market. Riverside Theatre, a horse the Major has followed and tipped as a successful each way 14/1 prospect in the King George ante post market, now goes off as favourite at a price of evens. While I like the horse, I think Nicholls has been patient trying to find the key to What a Friend and I would prefer his chances at 2/1 (Victor Chandler and Paddy Power). Some don’t like the form of his Hennessy and Lexus runs and class them as easier Grade 1 performances, the Major would prefer it at twos than Riversides evens. I just think What a Friend potentially has more upside. Small stake advised.
3.00 The Game Spirit throws up a slightly below par field this year. I am interested in Sports Line who may settle better with Timmy Murphy – His Punchestown third to Captain Cee Bee at the festival is as good as anything on show – If they have found the key to him then he could be a danger to all. McCain has won a third of his races in the last fortnight which adds to the sense that a decent run is on the cards. A chance is taken with Paddy Power or Bet365 at 7/1 (win stake).
Persian Snow looks the likeliest to win the bumper at Newbury but no bet advised.
At Leopardstown, there are some hugely interesting contests in this card which was moved from the original Hennessy day. The Irish Hennessy is simply one of the greatest Irish races of the year and it is a shame that the Nicholls raider, Pride of Dulcote has been rerouted in his preparation. There are other interesting challenges on the cards though.
The Grade 1 juvenile hurdle opener is a small stakes race as per the Majors betting resolutions. That said I like Indian Daudaie who has improved with racing and the heavy ground is likely to be a big plus to his chances. I prefer the experience of the three races under the belt over the impressive maiden winner Unaccompanied who is at the top of the market on potential alone. 10/3 my selection with Victor Chandler, have a slice.
Another Grade 1 is hot on the heels at 1.45 with the Dr P J Moriarty Chase (What a card) Mikael D’haguenet has the form in the book and he has been the apple of Mullins eye. I do like the chances of Magnanimity at the prices though as the race is likely to be run to suit and I suspect this one is still strongly on the upgrade and a likely Cheltenham sort. 11/2 with Hills and Power, I might be wrong but I suspect he may come in.
The 2.15 looks impossible but I would note Run for Sol who has a touch of the plot horse look about him.
2.45 and back to the Grade 1 action! The Deloitte Novices is a great guide to the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham and this year it is truly a terrific line up. Surely Mullins has been treating Zaidpour gently (when beaten by the Major!) and I fancy it has the measure of Hidden Universe in normal conditions but the Heavy I think will suit Hidden Universe more than Zaidpour. My advice is to take a slice of the 4/1 generally available. I think if this gets dirty, McNamara might get after the Universe in a way that Townend won’t, they have a longer term goal. Oscars Well is an interesting runner but breeding suggests better ground to the Major.
The Hennessy 3.15 Leopardstown pits the reliable Irish chasers against each other again. Sadly the stars are not there and it is a case of picking the best of the ‘Europa League’ players. Trafford Lad was the Majors advice when well beaten – I should know when I am done but I maintain this horse had decent younger form and could still one day reproduce it – Perhaps today is the day…… Anyone else coming in at 40/1 with Hills? The waters warm…..
OK – That is all the major races covered as best as the Major can, we have already got through 2,000 words and plenty of advices and research. What a feast of racing action from todays graded races. The Major is all about that and also all about the 3.20 at Ayr…. why?? Not many people woke up this morning thinking about Reindeer Dippins chances. The Major however likes a couple of things about this one. It will have needed the recent run following a break, McCain is in fine form and it is going its preferred way at Ayr, needing to race left-handed in the Majors view – Have a slice a 7/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power or Skybet.
To the sports fields of Britain….
The Manchester derby on paper is mouth-watering but going on the park the bus attitude applied by Mancini in similar circumstances I suggest both low scoring and no scoring games are in store for us, even if Smalling is a potential chink in the United armour. For the Major it is nil nil at half time…… A little known outfit called Unibet go 37/19 beaten only by the equally low profile Red32 who go 79/40….. 2/1 in old money, less a pittance!
I like the chances of Sunderland at home to Tottenham – No bet advised at the prices.
West Ham surely have a good chance of taking the bacon home from my beloved Hawthorns. Dispassionate betting is a must in the pursuit of profit and I cannot have it that West Ham are 3/1 – Di Matteo got fired largely because he could not get us defending well. Hodgson may be the right or wrong manager but what can have changed in that space of time to tighten us up?? 3/1 have a piece, a great bet – Albion have lost all but a couple of their last ten games, West Ham have 4 points from 6 on the road.
Villa are an advised bet to bag the points at free-falling Blackpool. 5/4 is reasonable.
Arsenal have lost some valuable points at the Emirates this season and I suspect Wolves may give them more problems today. 14/1 is not a bad price for a well organised team. Arsenal will come out firing, I have been impressed with the way the gunners leave the traps but if they don’t score in the first twenty five minutes then they might find it tougher and tougher. The Emirates crowd can be impatient, they have seen it before, petulance is often visible on the pitch when the gunners don’t get their way – 3/1 half time nil nil is the bet for the Major.
Ladbrokes go -3 Scotland in the handicap at evens which I think is a great price. Wales look devoid of spirit as they extended their barren spell. Scotland on the other hand played well against the usual french flair. This is a great bet, have a piece.
There we are, the advices are in. I am aware that this is a long list, probably the biggest post in the Majors record. Thank you for reading it all. If you cheated and came to the bottom to read my nap, go back to the top young man and do it properly.
The NAP is a West Ham win at 3/1. I am sorry Mr Hill, it had to be.
My lucky 15 is West Ham, Indian Daudaie, Scotland -3 and Magnaminity.
Let us accept our enemy from whichever angle he chooses to attack. The turf accountant is a devious fiend, pricing markets with delicate balance.
At tonight’s dinner, I imagine you will order the Lamb, gently cooked in a Moroccan style. A nice gentle red from Begerac will pair well. Have a Pastis beforehand to clear the palate. As you await your evening carriage, remember to tip the man well. The moon may well be shining, you see a man in a cloak in the dark shadows, his look is sinister. The church bell chimes the midnight hour as he approaches you. You see he has a satchel, he is the beaten enemy, your turf accountant. Tell him ‘Oh enemy, do not ask for whom the bell tolls…. It tolls for thee’, then see him home, it is the right thing to do.