Tag Archives: joe lively

2011 Off to a Flyer – Sunday Bets

2011 got off to a flyer.  An overall 44% profit from taking the early prices at Cheltenham – Marvelous. Full table below…

Firstly two outsider Sunday bets for you.

Vila to beat Chelsea is not a 14/1 bet.  OK Chelsea resumed winning ways last time out against Bolton but only managed to score once and were hardly convincing.  Malouda, Kalou and Drogba look a little off their best and the door is open to Villa who while given a drubbing 4-0 out last time by Man City have enough threat and organisation to be a least a consideration.  14/1 they are not and so William Hill is worth a tickle.

On track, the highlight of the day is a terrific novice hurdle at Naas.  Bishopsfurze goes off as 6/4 favourite – Mullins is in top form and so I can understand the favouritism but really I cannot separate many of them and so value is sought.  While De Bromhead has not had a winner in his last 14 runners, I do like the chances of Sizing Mexico.  This one has a 100% strike rate on any going with the word HEAVY in it and I take that as a big plus today.  I particularly liked the way it picked up when joined last time out at Thurles showing a pleasing attitude to the job.  7s is available with Paddy Power, take it as a win bet – The great thing with PP is that is the price drifts you get the bigger price…. nice.

The Major intends to keep a running total of his bets in 2011 – The target is 120% of stake, lets see how we do!

Finally – The Major had one of those golden moments in racing yesterday at Cheltenham.  Having made a small loss betting with my brother and a friend, we went into the last deciding a bit of ‘caution to the wind’ was required.  Keys was the Major selection and we got stuck into the bumper like desperate souls.  When Keys and Cinders and Ashes flashed past the line, the Major suggested that we may have had it on the nod.  When the photo was announced in our favour, general joy broke out!  60 seconds later, PING PONG STEWARDS ENQUIRY!! There was some hustling approaching the final furlong and given the short head winning margin, no-one could be sure it wouldn’t be turned over.  Fifteen anxious minutes followed in which the Major suggested that due to the length of time being taken, the result would be amended.  Thank the lord when PING PONG ‘the results of the stewards enquiry, the placings remain unaltered!’ sweet words! The thrill is what racing is about.

On a final final note.  What a sad sight to see the loss of Joe Lively.  The Major backed Joe some years ago when he was a tasty 12/1 winner at Cheltenham at the October meeting.  On the day, Legspinner also won the Cesarewitch which had been put up by the late Sir Clement Freud.  It was a golden day for the Major and I followed Joe to further wins.  Never quite top class but a Gold Cup outsider, Joe always gave his best and although small was a tidy jumper and had a terrific spirit.  It was tragic to see him flounder so graphically and suddenly in front of the Cheltenham stand.  This equally is what our great sport is about.

Cheltenham Bets Result
On His Own £0.00
Oscar Whisky £5.00
Maljimar £0.00
Sway £0.00
Caroles Legacy £0.00
Junior 12/1 ew £2.00
Keys £5.00
Football Bets  
Oxford to win £0.00
West Ham to win £2.38
4+ goals at West Ham £0.00
Racing Profit 71.00%
Football Profit -21.00%
Overall Profit 44.00%

Cheltenham in my Lungs

Fair morning to punters of Britain – A rare Friday post from the Major who has been awake many hours solving the puzzles that the opening day of the PAddy Power meeting at Cheltenham throws our way.

Hope you were on the winners last weekend at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively – Lets see what we can muster to allow us to prize the loot from our nemesis, the man with the satchel.

I am attending the Cheltenham course today, courtesy of the fine folk of the good ship Hiscox.  I see it like this:

The opener could go to Nicholls and I fancy a plunge on Earth Planet – Going in style I plan on making this the NAP.  Put simply, the form with Lie Forrit is the best on show, Nicholls is in fine form and a decent 5lb claim off what I consider a good handicap chase mark for Earth Planet adds up to a tasty bet.

1.50 and a suprise may be on the cards.  OK, it is unlikely that anything will beat Cue Card who looks a star in the making but the price will reflect that and I think forecast 11/10 on will be a fantasy.  I suspect the good folk will be shephereded to this bet like it cannot fail and it will go off at 4/6.  Maybe I’m wrong.  I am sticking with in form Nicholls in this race.  OK Dunraven could be good too, forgive his Champion Bumper run and you have a star horse and he is well regarded.  I also think he will like good ground but 7/2 to beat the star in a straight punch up…… seems tight to me.  This is why I like King of the Night – 8/1 at least gives you a chance of earning a profit on an each way stake.  This horse is not far off Dunraven form either and crucially gets the support on Noel Fehily from the saddle one of my favourite jumps jockeys and one who carries an amazing 55% strike rate for Nicholls

Daves Dream may go well fresh but the Pricewise horse probably won’t carry the honest price I want.  Keelaghan may be a McCoy / Tony Martin sure thing but against this quality I am unsure.  Although Reviliste is unproven on the ground, the unexposed 5yo has a lot going for it.  On balance I will take the best I can above a 5/1 Reviliste price and a 6/1 Daves Dream price and suspect the first will be the easiest to find.

There could be an upset in the cross country.  Joe Lively is as much a bet as for the heart as for the head but Garde Champetre who admittedly looks a good thing off the weights may not enjoy the top of the ground as much as oe does – 9/1 each way, the Major thinks it is a good bet.

Betting large in a 24 runner conditionals handicap at Cheltenham is the fastest way to the poor house there is.  So the 3.35 will carry just a small investment.  It will probably go on Max Bygraves who (if fit) could go well with a decent 8lb claim.  Sound Stage, Traffic Article and Turner Brown all had an argument forming in my head before I stopped myself  – Get a grip, you might put a line through some of these but seriously…

The best is saved until last.  The Steel Plate novice chase is a great race.  I really fancy second favourite Reve de Sivola to conquer here.  I think it has shown easily the best form when 2nd in the World Hurdle and the trainer of Time for Rupert has expressed a minute doubt about the readiness of his runner.  Othermix is a worthy each way bet, pricing permitting.

The nap is Earth Planet.  Money on, sit back and have a glass in hand.  Don’t forget to tell the man, that you are one of the Majors and you will be back.