Tag Archives: little josh

Friday Aintree Tips – includes a 25/1 Topham Tip

THIS IS THE 2012 POST, 2013 tips will be posted at midnight on Thursday on the home page.

2013 tips are now live.

Good evening from the Major who writes with tips for the fantastic Friday Aintree card.  The sheer quality of racing makes the heart skip a beat.

Finians was top class when seeing off Sizing Europe. This will suit…. load the large cannon

No joy from the three Aintree tips offered on Thursday.

To be fair, Crack Away Jack came in second at 50/1 after being highlighted as a possible improver.  Pearl Mix was a non runner but Grumeti’s win was a moral victory as the form lines were tied.  The other two selections fared poorly.

We need Fridays Aintree Tips to bring the Warchest for the weekend, let us review the action and see if we cannot find some opportunities to load the large cannon.

Aintree Top Novice Hurdle – 2pm

Darlan’s second in the Supreme Novices is rock solid form and to be fair, you could argue he was a little unlucky not to be the winner.

Prospect Wells was not that far behind that day but the Major is opting for a horse who finished even further behind in the Supreme… the tip is Vulcanite.

The selection is a general 10/1 shot and has been pulling very hard in his races.  If he settles I think he could be a classier act than yet shown over the obstacles as he was a decent flat horse.  Aintree is a flatter track, which I feel will suit his running style and help him settle as they will go quicker.  Now with more experience, I think there is a reasonable case to be made that Vulcanite could come improve past them all.

2.30 Mildmay Novice Chase

I can understand why the market has priced up Champion Court as favourite.  This horse likes to bowl  along and on a flat track and likely granted an easy lead, he could be hard to peg back.

Silviniaco Conti has some very good tied form with Bobs Worth who was an impressive Cheltenham winner.  Ruby opts to ride him too.

Neither of these market leaders are that convincing to the Major though who looks a little further down to find a golden nugget hiding away.

Join Together is the 11/2 tip (Stan James).  Ruby disagrees with me having chosen Silviniaco Conti over this stablemate but I think my selection has the greater form.  His last run at Cheltenham was a disappointment and I have to find a valid reason (the ground).

With a line through that run, my horse has given weight and a beating to Champion Court and has beaten subsequent Cheltenham winner Teaforthree.  Have a slice.

3.05 Melling Chase

The selection here is far more simple.  Finians Rainbow, a winner at Aintree last year and the reigning Champion Chaser, should have nothing to fear from this field and should be backed to the hilt at 11/8 with Stan James.

Albertas Run who has won the race in 2010, is now 11 and the newcomer looks more progressive.

The way Finians Rainbow finished up the Cheltenham hill suggested that 2m 4f around Aintree is well within reach.  The main danger in the Major’s eyes is Wishfull Thinking who I remain convinced has some big races to run.

Smash it up.

Topham Chase Tips

One of the trickiest contests to resolve is Thursdays Aintree Topham chase.  Tipping a winner in this is a tricky business indeed.

A couple of thoughts influence the tip, the ground is being watered and I think with a dry forecast, they are worried about it going ‘good’.  I am looking for good ground sorts and hope we don’t get that dead ground that throws up such odd results.

Secondly, there is a hugely strong Topham trend towards bottom of the handicap sorts.  Just one horse in the last twelve winners carried more than 11st and that was Gwanako.  In fact, since the turn of the century, seven winners carried 10st 4lbs or less.  To be fair, this does not rule out many as you often have a classy sort taking on unexposed players.

Peter Bowen is heavily represented again including the Topham hat-trick seeking Always Waining.  He will sure be popular again and will be in the best shape for this so has to be considered even at eleven.

Little Josh is now running off the same marks that got him a Paddy Power Gold Cup.  Liking to front run, conditions will suit so 11/1 Paddy Power is half decent.  However, 11st 4lbs on trends will be a burden.

The selection though is harder to justify than these.  Montoya’s Son has started to recover some form and the recent Newcastle show was OK.  It is not unrealistic to expect further improvement and 25/1 (Paddy Power) allows some room for that.  Many bookies are offering 5 places so do watch the terms.

4.15 Sefton Novices

When connections described Fingal Bay as the best they have had, the Major made a big mark in the book and left it there.  6/4 is very reasonable for a horse that has shown terrific form.

Having bypassed Cheltenham, Fingal bay turns up at Aintree fresher than many and if he has most of the form that his reputation suggests, then he should carry these before him.

For those that like a bigger price, Knock a Hand looks extremely progressive and could well take a place.

4.50 Handicap Hurdle

I have been through this card and cannot decide between two so am serving both up.

Bourne, I think, was unsuited last time and has plenty of potential left in what was a progressive profile before the festival.  9/1 is a win bet.

Like Minded is a 25/1 Paul Nicholls inmate who has not done much winning but would be closely matched with 14/1 Ataglance now on these revised terms.  Harry Derham has had a high profile winner for the yard this term and is well worth his claim.

The other big price horse that I considered is 25/1 shot Saphir River who did not give a decent run on British debut and has to prove some worth out of confusing French form.  It is notable though that there was a quarter of a million fee for the horse – Market support could be significant on second UK start.

The Bumper

Go to twitter… follow @kingofbumpers… do not ask the Major!

The Majors Saturday Service – Fairyhouse, Doncaster and Cheltenham Trials Day Tips, FA Cup Fourth Round Tipping

Good morning faithful followers and welcome to the Majors Saturday tipping service bought to you from the dark, cold and overcast conditions of Pershore.

The Duke of Wellington

He would be taking on his turf accountant with wins for Bolton and Reading.

The greatest commander in our history, the Duke of Wellington once said ‘All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavour to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called ‘guess what was at the other side of the hill’

The Saturday Service is written with this endeavour at heart.  The Iron Duke would have been a ‘straight on the nose’ sort of gentleman gambler I suspect, we shall do our best to honour him with the product of our research today.  At tea time, we shall see whether we were right about the other side of the hill.

Our relentless assault on the turf accountant community has resulted so far this year in a 12.45% profit.  The Major is delighted to have finished January in profit.  Particularly pleasing is the profit made across the disciplines, although horseracing (22%) has been a more profitable than football (2%).

The football came back into profit this week with a lovely couple of tips landing in the shape of away wins at tasty prices for Villa and Burnley.  Back to profit on football tips…. Do not call it a comeback, the Major had never gone.

Once more we shall return today to the field of battle.  Our sabre gleams clean, our eye is hard, cold and resolute. 

Cheltenham has called a second inspection for 10.45am.  Good lord, allow the temperature to rise and racing to go ahead.  The Major is hungry for the Prestbury action.  I am prepared.  My enemy awaits my moves.  To all those on course, enjoy.

A few points of order.  Can I call to your attention the email service on the left menu.  Twitter users can follow @tdl123.  Plus, we do get hundreds of visitors a week as the growing mass of followers decides to read the Majors nonsense tips before doing something more sensible.  Feel free to contribute, you can click comment and leave your thoughts, communication welcome.  On that score, if you feel you have a particular thought you want to share with the followers, guest posts would be welcome, let me know if you have an angle on an upcoming event.

Finally, thank you to the advocate followers.  You know who you are.  Shad, Redmond, Hill and the rest.  Stay loyal to the cause, I feel a monster bet being landed will be our just reward.

Let us start at Cheltenham.  I have focussed the write up on a couple of key races.  I have also included an across the card tipping service for all of you lucky people attending today (assuming the frost crust is off the ground).

One of the Majors betting resolutions for the year was not to get too enthusiastic about novice hurdlers.  However, there is one that the Major fins a likeable profile. 

The 3.05 Neptune Novices is probably my favourite race on the card today as it is the one where a true star could emerge.  There are plenty in the race that could be anything and so this is not one to get carried away with.  For example, Drive Time did absolutely nothing wrong on his winning hurdle debut and probably boasts one of the better flat forms of these sorts.  He has a better than 20/1 chance in the Majors view.  Backspin is a Grade 1 winner already but at 7/4 the Major would like to have seen a previous strong run at Prestbury Park.

Bobs Worth is a clear contender and a much better bet for the red hot Henderson yard (16 winners from 47 in the last two weeks – worth following again today!).  Clearly a promising sort and a much better bet than the 7/4 favourite at 9/2.  Considered.

The one carrying the Majors money though is Champion Court.  Hot favourite before being pulled out of a heavy ground race in Ireland last week, this horse needs to run past it’s previous form to take this.  However, this horse is one that has had the opportunity to run at Cheltenham and shaped well, winning here back in November.  Impressions that day suggested he could get further, I think conditions are ideal today – 11/1 is available with Skybet who are also one of the two bookmakers to go quarter odds the place, honourable stuff.  Have an each way slice.

The 2pm Murphy Group Chase is an interesting puzzle which the Major has wrestled with before conclusively solving.  A lot of my thinking about this contest revolves around what you make of Little Josh.  If you take his run in the Paddy Power on a form line through Long Run, then he will make mincemeat of this lot.  So the question is what do you make of that form when asked to shoulder a nine pound rise, Little Josh fluffed his lines in Decembers Vote AP (the old Boylesports) Chase – My original view that the Paddy Power run was a reliable yardstick has changed.  Long Run clearly was below his best that day (I am unsure of his suitability for Cheltenham) – Little Josh won the Paddy Power when given an uncontested lead and he certainly won’t get that today with 4 or 5 likely prominent racers.

OK, considering this race is going to have a lot of pace on with several likely sorts wanting to dictate the tempo (Little Josh amongst them).  Buffalo Bob needs assessing as another ‘from the front’ sort.  I like his chances and he races off a significant weight advantage. 

Pricewise suggested Bakbenscher – You can see why, he fancies it to close to win on the hill.  The Major prefers to take a gamble on the well being of another closer, Chapoturgeon.  On his best form, only 18 months ago, Chapo has as good as record as anyone.  Course form is not a problem.  If he had shaped more promisingly on reappearance from injury then he would be a leading fancy for this.  At 11/1 quarter odds with Corals, I advise you to have a healthy touch.  Yes we take a chance on his well being but let’s hope that he can travel well enough at the back of the field with Timmy Murphy, one of the finest exponents of turning a horse off at the back of the field and kidding it into the race for the closing stages.  A nice looking grey horse too, eye catching.

These are the two advised Cheltenham Trials Day tips written up.  The best of the rest:

12.55 Triumph Hurdle Trial – Local Hero looked the best of these on the flat and showed he can convert that to hurdle form, take to win well at 2/1 with Coral to get the day off to a flyer.

1.30 Timeform Novices – Ikorodu Road is a bigger price because of his mistake which caused him to finish third at Newbury.  This also meant a lenient handicap mark and I take him to use that to advantage today, no mistakes and 5/1 is a monster price, get stuck in.  Shakalakaboomboom looks a useful handicapper for the red hot Henderson yard but the Major suspects his racing may catch up with him today.

2.30 – The Argento is the feature on the card.  I cannot have the price of Punchestowns and although Tidal Bay is a danger to all if he plays his A game, I take Neptune Collonges at 9/1 to show that injury and a fall have not dulled the shine.

3.35 – Fingers crossed we will get a stand out impressive winner of this to at least ask Big Bucks a question come March in the World Hurdle.  It is hard to believe Fair Along is just 9, he seems to have been around for ever and he would be a popular winner.  While he will go well in my view, his front running style will be picked off by something in this field.  Corals are 11/4 about Grand Crus and I think you should punish them for their error.  Couple this with a saver on Knockara Beau at 33/1 who is intriguing switched back to hurdles even if Jan Faltejsek in the saddle hardly inspires confidence.

4.10 If you need this one then we are in trouble.  The handicapper has made a fundamental error when rating Alarazi, who races off a featherweight.  12/1 Sportingbet, have a slice and thank me later.

If Cheltenham is called off then let us at least take succour from the fact Punchestown goes ahead.  The 2.40 handicap is hardly going to throw up a star but Artic Mick will run well for O’Hare who has had 2 winners in the last fortnight from 4 runners.  6/4 is a bit steep for the Major though who priced this one at 15/8.  Therefore a chance is taken on a second plausible run in a row (not a certainty) from Andreas Answer, 12/1 Bet 365. 

Fistral Beach is a great price for the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster, 3.20.  11/2 is too big, smash it up.  Equally, 33/1 about Etxalar who looks unlucky at times is too big.  We may not find out whether it is or not as Doncaster looks more weather prone.

To the football fields of Britain and fourth round FA Cup day.  For those that remember back, we had a great day on FAC3 weekend when the Majors profitable assertion paid out…. that turf accountants overpriced Premier League teams who treat this as a second competition .

There are no matches which match that profile today but we do have a number of games where pricing has been incorrectly applied.

The first for me is Bolton who should have no problems seeing off Wigan.  8/11 probably is not short enough for an organised outfit.  Coyle could have a proper crack at the Cup, Martinez is likely to have other priorities!

Reading are the best fit for the Majors profiling in the FA Cup.  Think about it, if Stevenage had not beaten Newcastle then you would never get ODDS AGAINST on Reading to beat them.  There were lots of contributing factors that day that do not apply.  OK, so Stevenage will be up for this and the third round antics may play on Readings minds but 6/5 is absurd – Speak to your money man and free up some funds!

West Ham could have a distraction from their troubles at home to the Tricky Trees.  5/4 is too big for a team that boasts better talent than the visitors.

Australia will revert to winning ways and continue their domination in the one day series against England.  10/11 is a great price for them to go 4-1 up.  England’s last win had a sense of fortune about it and the seamers are just not effective enough to suppress the Aussies surging ahead again.

Remember the Majors advice.  Bet big.  Be irresponsible.  Give yourself a chance of glory.  If you are uncomfortable with the stake then you have done the right thing.  It has to be worth winning and it has to hurt losing.

The Naps this year are off to a flyer and this week the Major will shirk not.  A treble on Bolton, Reading and West Ham is advised.  For those who like the lucky 15, you know who you are Martin, stick Bobs Worth in at 9/2.

Tonight, a gentle evenings dining.  Enjoy some mussels in white wine.  Eat fish and have a bottle of New Zealand white.  It is good for the soul.  Remember to tip well.  If the man thanks you, tell him it was your pleasure and that you are one of the Majors. 

Final thanks to the young Master Hobday who, as his legendary playboy status dictates, has organised his own gentleman’s trip to Aintree for Grand National day and the invitation list is delectable, superb company, stylish times ahead chaps.  It will not be long before the Major stakes an ante post selection in your name designed to more than recoup any outlays for the days entertainment.  Charge the brandy flask.

Black Saturday – Sunday Recovery Required – Fairyhouse and Premier League Tips

What a shame Kauto could not retain his King George crown.  It would be a fitting mark of a terrific career.  I know Clive Smith, who is a class act, and Paul Nicholls won’t take any riskes with Kauto and the Major expected a retirement announcement yesterday but it seems a small bleed occurred.  I am pretty sure Kautos swan song will be a pitch at his third Gold Cup.

In a black Saturday which returned the Major to a modest year to date profit of under 10%, the two grade one races yesterday were the bits we got right.  First up, we got not only the winner of the Christmas Hurdle but also the shape of the race.  Bincoluar was the class act, he is such a bull of an animal and shaped impressively.  The Champion Hurdle race is shaping into a cracker, can you call it from Binocular, Peddlers Cross, Hurricane Fly, Menorah, Oscar Whisky or any of the other contenders that have not done a lot wrong?  I don’t think a bet on Kyhber Kim for the Cheltenham showpiece would be a terrible decision right now.  He was simply not suited by a sharp 2 miles around Kempton and back at Prestbury, I would expect him to be finishing like a train up the hill.  He was simply caught for toe yesterday.

In the big one, Kauto never looked to be travelling fluently.  I am sure some people would ask the question about whether AP was part of the reason he did not settle but that would be nonsense.  Watching Long Run win, a few things struck me.  Firstly, that his third at Cheltenham caused an over-reaction.  Henderson has always thought Long Run a star and as I ventured previously, his festival performance last year was simply not the script.  He could be great.  Secondly, the result yesterday and the manner of it just showed me that the changing of the guard has come at the top of the racing league.  Move over Denman, Kauto (and Imperial?) here comes Diamond Harry, Long Run and even Pandorama.  The new kids are in town.  The final point to take was that reading race form strictly, doesn’t this offer a line of form suggesting Little Josh is a horse to be reckoned with?

Today Tottenham carry the Majors advice from yesterday as they take on Manchester United at home.

There is a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse that sadly attracts four runners and a 1/2 favourite.  The listed race at 1.15 also has a hot favourite.  The Major liked the look of Wood Lily in this one but no bet advised.

In the earlier maiden at 12.40, the Mullins hot pot is attracting all of the money which leaves some value in Sorted each way at 14/1.   The other I like is Baycross which ia also easy to back at 25/1.

Can the Major make it an all profitable November Saturday Service?

Good morning from fine Worcestershire where the hard frosty ground gives a beautiful backdrop to the Majors Saturday preachings.

Another fine sporting weekend to be enjoyed.  Two groups of people to thank for the fine sporting offerings today, the good folk at BHA, Newbury, Newcastle and sponsors sportingbet who pushed through the move to get the fighting fifth to Newbury – Well done, good show.  Well done also to the small army of people required to cover the majority of the Newbury track with frost covers last night to ensure that the gods of weather could not upset the Majors eggs on toast.

The coffee is simple, Gold Blend, we ran out of the expensive stuff and the Major needs to restock for Christmas.  The environment is wholesome and we all know a pure heart and a clear head is required when going into battle against the old enemy, him with the satchel who shall try to deceive with his dark and twisted approach.

The Major has been working for your benefit for some hours and today, the results are important for a few reasons.  Firstly, every Saturday service in November has been fantastically profitable.  The lowest return was 148% of stake, lovely.  Let’s complete the month with another stunner.  Secondly, it is building towards Christmas and the Major understands that in the time of credit crunches, recessions, student fee increases and swinging cuts; the Major has an obligation to return a profit…. let’s see what the art of the possible is….

Hennessy Day.  What a great day, let’s start with a look at the race.  Denman bids for a third Hennessy which would be a first.  This is a moment of horseracing history but we need to reflect.  Denman is an amazing animal.  A twice Hennessy victor, a Gold Cup winner and a top class chaser.  ‘The tank’ was an apt nickname, on his day he travels powerfully with an arrogance to match his class.  It is a measure of his success that he puts more than half of the field out of the handicap today, shouldering 11-12 giving 8lbs to horses like Niche Market (an Irish National Grade 1 winner) who still remains 8lb the wrong side of the handicap, unbelievable.

However, before we get too breathless at what this horse has already achieved and hopes to achieve today, we need to consider the greatest chaser of them all.  It is unfair to consider Denman in the category of the greatest without considering Himself, Arkle.

Arkle, for those who do not know (please do not return), was a bay gelding and was simply the best chaser to ever race.  In a similar style to Denman he came to prominence when many suspected he was second fiddle to Mill House, the stables other top chaser.  However Arkle proved to be in a different class.  He was a freak winning 27 of his 35 starts.  His losses were usually injuries.  His sole loss in the Hennessy was finishing second to a horse that went on to place twice in the Gold Cup ( a great white chaser called Stalbridge Colonist) – On Hennessy day, Arkle who lost by half a length was trying to give him best part of three stone.  Watch the film, if Arkle had not got so close to the last fence, maybe he would have been the first three times winner of the Hennessy.

I love Denman (although admit to being a Kauto man), I love his brashness, his attitude, I dearly hope he can win.  Let’s enjoy the day,a  great day.  Just have in mind though the greatest of the all.  If Arkle ran today, Denman would be out of the handicap by 4lbs.

So who wins the Hennessy after all this is a sport tipping service! 

This is a puzzle.  It is a huge ask of Denman and as much as I wish him well, I have to consider that at ten and with lots of second season improvers queuing up to have a pop, Denman is very vulnerable today.

Burton Port is a very interesting contender having the services of Geraghty.  I think it is a testament to the way this 6yo is considered at home that Barry Geraghty, no spring chicken but one of the Majors favourites is getting 3lb below his lowest riding weight for 3 years to take the ride.  Well done Barry, enjoy the sauna.  The horse looks an out and ou stayer to me and I suspect there is a lot of improvement.  This is my each way advice to you, let’s hope Barry is not too dizzy and can steer us round for a decent winner.  Bet 365 bless have gone 9/1 paying 1/4 to FIVE PLACES.  Very generous chaps, you shall be remembered in the Majors prayers.  Get stuck into the port faithful followers.  Pandorama could be the fly in the ointment, consider a saver.  Lots of other fascinating runners, how is Neptune Collonges who was looking good prior to injury, Weird Al who deadheated the impressive Little Josh at Carlisle last time out, Taranis returning from a knock…. this is a class field

Before the Hennessy kicks off at 3.05, we have the delectable delight of the return to track of Big Bucks.  The only one of the big four horses expected to give the bookies a thrashing at the festival, Big Bucks is going off 2/7 – Not a price for the Major but what on earth could beat it?  What bank would give you a 28% return by mid afternoon?? Stick it in the accumulators!!

The fighting fifth is a sit out race for the Major too.  Peddlers Cross has to show plenty on official form but there was plenty to like about the Cheltenham novice win.  If the real Binocular turns up then 4/5 could look daft.  The Majors winner from a fortnight ago (Nearby) looks out of his depth.

The 3.40 is a race in which I have spent some time considering options.  Of 15, I have it down to a few.  One of which, I think the enemy is making a considerable mistake with.  Mount Oscar will strip fit for a blow at Chepstow and on a winning mark could take this, 10s available with Paddy but not for the Major.   The favourite stands a great chance converting back to the bigger obstacles, a transfer of form (not a certainty) would make Working Title a threat to all.  The Majors advice though is to play Pocket Aces at 20/1 (sportingbet) to three places (although 16/1 Skybet go 4 places) – This horse has a 7lb useful claim in young Mr Cannon and is well weighted on better form.  Last time out at Cheltenham, over shorter, it looked like the penny had dropped making good late headway.  Have a chunky slice and thank the Major later.

The Major wants you to have advice for the big Saturday events as well as a few tasty morsels from things you won’t have picked up.  Why you would have looked at the 6.50 at Wolverhampton for example, is a question without answer.  The Major has.  This means he can give you West End Lad.  The Major is curious, verging on the suspicious over why they insist on running this horse over trips such as this when his best form is much shorter.  Russ Kennemore rides again after a decent second last time out… 10/1 generally, get involved.

To the frosty football fields of Britain. 

Some no bets are Arsenal and Liverpool who I suspect will both get beaten as I think they both have a soft underbelly.  Watching brief.

I do like the look of Stoke to beat an overrated Man City.  11/4 is a great price – Stoke beat Liverpool at home and fear no-one.  Man City might struggle, this is one that the Major likes to go after.

Leeds are a great 3/1 price to win at Reading, they are unbeaten in six and Reading are not a consistently good defensive team.  Andy O’Brien is a key player for Leeds now who have attacking options and now a rock to build on.  I think they are play off good things, they can get Reading today at a tasty price.

I like Martinez, the Spaniard in charge of Wigan.  I have often used his team to effect this season and todays trip to West Ham is a great opportunity.  Thankfully for the Major, the West Ham headcases have made a strong campaign of save our season around this game and this could play into Wigans hands.  Maybe the Major is wrong but Wigan can use the nonsense campaign as a springboard of their own – They are being told to turn up and play the part of the defeated.  West Ham have their own problems.  Noble is out and Parker will probably return but who knows if he is in top shape after his chest infection.  Wigan are 14/5 and with Cleverley returning, I fancy a plunge on this one.

Bristol City are a super price to win at home to a shockingly poor Sheffield United.  The red half of Bristol have had a season of two halves already but the new boss has them firing and recent performances have been strong.  6/4 with Hills is an unbelievable price.  Bristol City are on the up and have beaten Swansea away and Leicester at home in two of their last three.  Their loss was no disgrace, away to Leeds.  6/4, I cannot get over that!  Load the heavy cannon for this one.

In the eggball, the England international looks to be a terrific encounter with a bruised South Africa likely to prove tricky opponents.  I have been backing England in their autumn internationals as you know and think a slight victory is on the cards today too.  1/2 though is way too skinny.  In a tight contest, maybe take a small interest with Stan James that Nick Easter is first try scorer at 25/1.

Difficult week this week.  We need one of the bigger priced advised bets to pay if we are to maintain our streak.

The nap is simple enough, Bristol City at home is to be trusted at 6/4.  £20 returns £50.  A purple for a red is a good exchange in my humble opinion.

All the talk of Hennessy has me thinking that a late night brandy might be the calling today.  I hope yours is VSOP and in some fine crystal.  All the MAjor asks is that as you shift your bank note wedge which was digging into your ribcage, drink to the Majors health and then be upstanding for the Queen.  Ask the man to top that brandy up, tell him the Major sent you.