Tag Archives: meanus dandy

Horseracing Tips from Sandown, Football Tips – The Majors Saturday Service

Indian Braves - Expert horseman, brutal warriors. Love a bet, probably.

Good morning, I hail to thee, young band of merry warriors.  Defford is a paragon of virtuous sunshine this fair morning, cacophony of spring birds, a brightness so loud it is deafening.

Ah the Major pangs for the short dark days of winter, the peaceful still and cool air, clear sound made on fresh canvas; just fading memories now like the distant pulses of a fast-moving train, but we know it will return.  Let us enjoy our excursion into summers embrace but know it for what it is, we shall await and embrace the coming of winter and restoration of natural order.

The Saturday Service is here and we have a great Easter weekend of sport, a delectable spread of refined temptations to pick from, gorge not, but enjoy the feast – Select well, as the enemy will try to dazzle us with baubles of deception, gaudy and dizzying, remain clear-headed and progress like the river with your mind able to bend round stubborn stone, relentlessly rolling on.

The Majors midweek foray was unsuccessful with three horses selected returning one non runner and two losses.  The Majors April is still very profitable, apologies for not updating the figures in the menu bar, the tardiness will be corrected.  Suffice to say I think we are about 55% up.

Balance is required.  As Kipling wrote, treat both triumph and disaster as equal imposters.  The Major knows this and so vigilance is required today.  Let our success be deliberate and calculated.  Glory comes from perfect practice, not hot-headed folly.

Custer is our cautionary tale.  His exploits for the Union army were legendary being promoted at Gettysburg.  He felt bullet proof and confidence was always sky-high with this dangerous man.  This instinct gave him his greatest moments and cost him his life and that of those he commanded. 

The Americans were continually breaking treaty promises with Indian camps over land rights.  Finding gold in the Black Hills caused inevitable further conflict and an oppressed tribal community rose up.  The Indian tribes of Arapaho, Cheyenne and Lakota (as well as the fighting Brule) united under the leadership of Sitting Bull were prepared to fight.  Their huge camp of 4,000 ugly faced braves, intent on mischief, settled at Little Bighorn.  Custer, the civil war hero was sent to quash the uprising with his 7th Calvary.

Tactically, Custer gave little thought to the job in hand.  His confidence in his men was unimpeachable but foolish.  He split his force into three.  The initial foray lead by Reno was to the South of the Indian encampment, it was bloodily repulsed and it was clear that the force they were fighting was well armed, well-ordered and thirsty for the engagement. 

All could have been recovered after Reno’s failed attack from the South, his retreat to the bluffs standing high to the East of the Little Bighorn river gave them all a chance of digging in.

Custer though was indignant and unaware of the dangers.  He had his forces try to traverse the river to the North East of the camp.  They were easily repelled and then pursued up the bluff by a succesful and swift Indian counter charge led by Crazy Horse. 

A desperate last stand was made in the hill overlooking the sprawling Indian camp.  Indian Calvary made light work of the 7th Calvalry who were trying to form a line, once they smashed through that, all order was lost and it was every man for himself.  The Indian braves used hatchet and lance in close quarters to devastating effect.  After the battle, they scalped the defeated in order to let the soul of their enemy depart, savage yet cathartic.

Why did Custer judge Little Bighorn so badly?  Why lead a force into full frontal assault against a three factor stronger enemy?  Why split your force?  Why when the first skirmish goes horribly wrong would you risk an attack?  Why decline to take more troops in the first place?  Custer wanted the fame, he was drunk on his self-image.

A man compelled to further his career in the spotlight.  A man buoyed by early success.  Over-confidence in your trained troop.  The sense of glory.  No coolness of mind.  Calculate your bravery.  The Major urges you to distance yourself from victory and defeat.  Custer’s lesson.

To the sports young warriors, let us hope to add red dots each symbolising a defeated and fallen member of the turf accountant community to our head-dress.  Daub paint and prepare your hatchet, ready thyself, it is Saturday and there is mischief to be had.

Sandown Bet 365 day is a superb moment in the sporting gentleman’s calendar.  The gauntlet is passed from the jumps to the flat boys and both are on show in a wonderful eight race card.  Next year, this might make the Majors social cycle. 

A glorious day for them too today.  Drenched in sunshine.

The ground will be edging towards the firm, this is a significant factor in assessing todays runners, it will be frenetic stuff.  We are also looking for jumps horses that are not ‘over the top’, ideally ones that have demonstrated they are spring horses.  Thus, Baby Run makes little appeal.

For the flat sorts, prep runs and ones that go fresh is the model of the likely winners in the Majors view.

2.05 Sandown – Bet 365 Handicap

As I write it appears that Kazzene has been backed off the boards down to 4/1.  This price does not reflect his recent form.  Though if something were amiss and it has been rectified, the Pipe yard can land a gamble with this completely unexposed sort racing off a featherweight.

I’ll leave the gamble alone.  Kazzene may be the handicap snip of the century but not for the Major.

I am a keen fan of Extreme Conviction in this 2 and a half mile contest.  His record with good ground or better is raced 6, placed 5, won 4.  He has not won on ground with the word soft in it.

King of the Night might be one for next season.

Back Extreme Conviction each way 10/1 with SportingBet.

2.35 Sandown Celebration Chase

French Opera is one of those sorts that will not carry the Majors money.  Henderson believes conditions are right today, the Major is less sure.

I prefer backing Tataniano who is 6/5 with Hills.  This is exactly the sort of horse the Major is looking for.  Loves the sun on its back, won over good last year at Aintree, odds against for a horse that could still make the top grade, very tasty.

3.10 Bet365 Gold Cup Chase – Sandown

As I previously hinted, I cannot have Baby Run.  OK, it is clearly the best hunter chaser around.  Switching to this company is tough, doing it after several hard races all over extended 3 and a half mile distances on the legs of an eleven year old is a lot to ask – Especially as he won’t have it his own way as he normally does, there will be harrassment today.  It is this and not his potential lenient handicap mark which gives the Major confidence to draw a line through that one.

There is going to be plenty of pace on with the ground as is and plenty that will like to make it, including Baby Run.

This might help settle Poker de Sivola into a better rhythm, he was the Majors Scottish National selection and if the unseating at Ayr still leaves him in decent touch, I think he might come good for one of these races.  I prefer those where this has been the long-term target though.

Triggerman is of interest.  Will be suited by this race and the Major would not put you off a 12/1 interest in this one.

The Majors money though will be carried by 10/1 shot Meanus Dandy.  Nicholls and Walsh team up and I think this one might do well stepped up in trip.  Get involved each way.

3.45 Bet365 Mile

Then the focus is passed to the flat sorts with their fine morning suit attire, keen satirical edge and vintage champagne, good luck to you all.

The Bet365 mile has attracted just 5 runners but it is an intriguing contest.

Dick Turpin has the best form to boast of, just.  4/5 on though is overpriced.

Andrew Balding has sent in  pacemaker (Highland Knight) to ensure a gallop which is a smart move given the small field and good ground.  The intended beneficiary, Dream Eater is not for the Major though, even with the assistance of Jimmy Fortune, amongst the Majors favourite flat jockeys.

I am not convinced Cityscape will love conditions especially as it is only going to get faster.  This leaves me Music Show.  Normally held up, I think the presence of a pacemaker will help the only lady in the field and Ryan Moore, master of the timed run can bring home the bacon at 9/2, have a chunky slice and thank me later.

4.50 Sandown 1m Handicap

This is a wide open handicap but there is a candidate that caught the Majors eye.  Huygens looks set for a big opener.  Holland is booked for the steering and the horse has a good record fresh. 

The Major is not the only one to smell a snip.  The price has come in from 16s to 9s.  I am not putting you off though, dropped back to a mile seems an odd choice but the trainer knows his beans, unleash the light cannon.

3.05 Mussleburgh

The 1m 1f contest is an interesting little affair and the one that catches the Majors imagination is the, bottom of the card, Rastaban.  The Major smells a big run….

William Haggas doesn’t make that many big round trips and when he does, he goes with intent.  This will be a 600 mile round trip and nothing else is going up in the horsebox.

7/2, pile in boys.

To the sports fields……

Last weeks football bets performed well with Wigan and Villa both winning at greater than 2/1.

This week I see no reason not to back them again.

Wigan are back in touch, Sunderland in free fall.  3/1 with Victor Chandler for the Latics, take a slice.

Villa entertain Stoke, fresh from their demolition of Bolton at Wembley.  Tony Pulis men have a poor record away from home and the Houllier illness is not a factor to the Major, well not one that adversely effects Villas chances anyway.  10/11 with Hills, smash that up.

Preston are 4/1 to win at Millwall who are without key players.  Preston are not quite done yet and I fancy them at this price to cause a possible upset.

I like the return of Adams at Blackpool and 2/1 is fair but their morale seems suspect and I cannot touch it.

7/2 the draw at Old Trafford also looks appealing but is left alone.

Tonight let dining be an easy pasta ensemble.  Fresh tiny ripened tomato, garlic, good bread.  Enjoy a light tipple, perhaps a Wye Valley beer or a class of Beaujolais.  Eat al fresco, see if that careful sort wants to join you, her with the measured look in her eye and that certain quiver of the lip that suggests something, perhaps.

Bet more than you should.  On the anniversary of Jesus resurrection weekend where he rose from the dead after three days (I once had a similar experience after an absynthe party); ensure you take a moment to yourself to simply enjoy being.  After all, this happens just the once, make it memorable.

Another Major Blinder – 50% profits yesterday – Rare Sunday Post

Another Saturday and another set of profitable advices – We are on a decent run and the twelve bets advised yesterday paid out at over 50% profits to level stakes. 

The real success was on track where we nailed Imperials success as well as Mastermindeds, but successfully dodged Zaynar in favour of the 7/2 winner, Siviciano Conti and rounded off with 5/1 Hitchens …. delightful.  Only the tip put up from the outside source failed to fire but to be fair, I liked James de Vassey and it travelled well before emptying quickly.

The football side turned out poorly.  We were a little unlucky with Shrewsbury who led until two minutes before time when an astonishing volley drew the game level.  Bolton did the business in style for us but West Hams utter direness meant our long shot was never in contention.  We should have bet on Blues to beat Chelsea too.

Soapbox moment fromthe Major – Why does the BBC show three decent but hardly spectacular races from Aintree in mid November in its schedule and yet is threatening to cancel Arc coverage next year or carry it behind the red button – Crazy.

A rare set of Sunday advices for you:

12.35 Aintree – Private Be if keeping his old zest could win; last weekends big father and son Twiston-Davies combination run presentandcorrect, now dropped to a more preferable trip is preferred in the market to number one jockey Brennans Nikola – Could be revelaing.  Victoria Groom was considered and so was Frankie Figg who likes to tank a fence or two and Aintrees fences are not obstacles for the feint hearted!  With soft conditions I am going to plum for an each way bet that will get round – El Maintenant is a sound jumper, will be stripping fit, 14/1 right now with Skybet and VC.

The handicap hurdle at 1.10 has an interesting contender in 9/1 Ramsden Boy.  He has a fine hurdle record winning 4 from 5 and seems to act on any surface.  Ladbrookes offer 10/1 and I suggest you take it with Sam Twiston-Davies’ 3lb claim meaning this is the lightest thing going round in the soft conditions…. unclip the money roll.

The last terrestrial TV race is the Becher chase.  The two I like are top weight Notre Pere who is the class animal in the race.  The Major once thought Notre Pere might be a gold cup horse but while that was a bit strechy, it is a top class chaser whose jumping and strong travelling style will go well around Aintree.  Probably too exposed to be a real national contender but good enough to pick up a few more decent grade races, could go well today.  Newman des Plages could go OK but any jumping flaws will be exposed.  I offer you a repeat prescription of Meanus dandy who won nicely for the Major at 8/1 two weeks ago – Have a slice and thank me later.  Merigo, the Scottish national winner would also enter calculations.

The 1.05 at Navan is a nice looking novice hurdle with some potential festival bound horses.  Although les has been achieved in form Gift of Dgab might be a tasy price – Its too early to have any prices yet!

The Navan 2.45 is a decent chase handicap.  Hold the Pin is well weighted if at 11 he can find a touch of old form.  The one I like for a small stakes each way is 8/1 Got Attitude.  8/1 with the assistance of Geraghty and you have to say that this 7 year old could have more improvement to come.

Fulham are 2/1 to beat Man City and I think that is a fair price.  Hughes will be foired up to entertain a Man City team that have spent more money yet accrued the same number of points since Hughes was fired (4 games from now) last season.  Man City are under pressure and they have not scored in their last two.  Not all is right in the camp and a well organised Fulham could nick this 1-0.

May your bets be be blessed and return you glorious winnings from the enemies satchel.

THE MAJORS ADVICE SAT 20TH
Bet Odds Returns
West Ham to beat Liverpool 13/2 £0.00
Wolves to beat Blackpool 2/1 £0.00
Shrewsbury to beat Southend evens £0.00
Bolton to beat Newcastle 6/5 £2.10
England -24 point handicap 10/11 £0.00
New Zealand -14 point handicap 10/11 £1.91
England / NZ Hancdcp Double c5/2 £0.00
Imperial Commander wins the Betfair evens £2.00
Masterminded wins the Amlin evens £2.00
Siliciano Conti wins the Grade 2 Ascot hurdle 7/2 £4.50
Hitchens to win the lastat Lingfield 5/1 £6.00
James de Vassey to win at Haydock 13/2 £0.00

Cracking Sporting Weekend – Superb Target Rich Gambling Environment

Well good morning from fine Pershore where the leaden sky carries the weight of the Majors thoughts.  Last time out, we had a couple of horse winners but overall recorded a loss, with a particularly poor set of football bets, amends shall be made, the record will be set straight.

The coffee has been consumed, the research conducted and now it is decision time concerning the opportunities to give that duality of an existence, our friend and enemy, the turgid bookmaker; a good tanking.

I was pleased to see Mancini as short at 9/4 for the next manager for the chop.  This was advised at 25/1 by the Major in the post Triumph and Disaster.  Manchester City are not a good outfit.  Their best player wants to go and they seem incapable of fielding their best side and motivating them to put a shift of work in.  It would not surprise me to see West Brom beat them on Sunday and the 25/1 advice turn into a tasty little winner.

There is such a fantastic plethora of sporting opportunity this weekend for the Major.  On track we have the Breeders Cup (will Workforce go?), Hanagan versus Hughes,  and Kauto Stars run at Down Royal (Hurricane permitting!) – Some tidy looking premier league games, rugby, cricket warm up matches….. let’s start with the fussball.

A couple of no bets for me are Stoke and Fulham.  Sunderland were shocking in their derby game and I was very tempted to put Stoke up at 3/1 but for three factors.  One, Bruce is a decent manager who will have read the riot act to his players, Gyan is making his debut and looks decent to me and Stoke are crap.

Fulham could beat Villa who are winless in four and are missing their main three strikers in Carew, Heskey and Agbonlahor.  However, Fulhams own form is shocking, they have not won in five fixtures which included West brom, West Ham and Stoke….. I’ll sit that out too although a draw at 23/10 could be the result.

Lets have a look at some I will back.  Spurs at Bolton is a tight call but I think pricing Spurs at 6/4 gives enough incentive to follow Harrys boys.  I have no qualms about the Inter effect as Tottenham have rebounded from all of their European exploits well this season.  I am more concerned about Boltons organised outfit starving a decent Spurs team, particularly in the absence of Van der Vaart who I have been advising as 1st goalscorer to anyone that will listen, small bet advised on a spurs win.

A larger chunk of your role should be placed on Birmingham beating West Ham.  West Ham are missing one of their two influential midfielders in Noble and may also be without Upson.  This is quality they cannot afford to lose.  Birmingham have Jerome returning who will link up with the giant Zigic well and they should create chances through Hleb and Beausejour.  21/20 is available from Hills, evens is the general price, load the big guns.

Chelsea also look a good bet at Liverpool at a price of 11/10.  Let’s face facts, Chelsea would be clear odds on if Liverpool had not recovered to win 3-1 in midweek.  That game showed Liverpool for what they are, poor but with a world-class centre midfielder.  With Torres looking shoddy, I cannot imagine a scenario in which Liverpool win.  I accept that spirits may have been raised by two wins in a row and I know that Chelsea are not playing their best stuff either but I do fancy the boys in blue to raise their game in the Anfield clash tomorrow, confident suggestion.

Aidy Boothroyd is doing a great job at unfashionable Coventry and I would fancy them to win their third league game on the trot at home to a travel happy Leeds outfit.  7/5 represents a decent price.  It is no fluke that Coventry are fourth and although Leeds are just 4 points off them – Coventry won nicely at Sheffield United last time out, a price of 7/5 suggests Coventry would only win this five times out of twelve clashes, I think the numbers are in our favour. 

East Fife have appointed a new boss and the bounce back factor could make 15/8 a tidy price as they entertain a decent Alloa – Stick this in your multiples.

The Autumn internationals of the eggball sort see England entertain the All Blacks today at Twickenham.  I think the 11/2 for home victory may be a shade generous.  OK, you must fancy the All Blacks but there is reason for hope.  Sheridans return will bolster a front line and the England team seemed to be improving as the six nations developed.  It is a long way back to the last England defeat of New Zealand but allow yourself a patriotic one on this with a little touch of hope.

On track today, there is an awesome line up.  Let’s start Stateside with the always superb Breeders Cup meeting.  8 races, 6 Grade 1, 2 Grade 2!

Last night Midday failed to get up to win, finishing second in what I thought was Britains best idea of a Churchill Downs winner on the card.  Tonight, Sir Michael Stoute is still to decide about the participation of Workforce.  What a fuss he is making over the firm conditions.  Why he does not state his position I am unclear.  All week he has complained about the track and put forward that workforce is an uncertain runner without offering certainty over what conditions he sees fit to run his star.  It would be a travesty if Workforce did not run and I believe he will.  Sir Michael is lining up his excuses in my view but I am hoping he does not need any.

The most exciting horse in the world runs in the Breeders Cup Classic (10.45pm) and I think everyone will want Zenyatta to win her toughest ever test.  She has won 19 from 19 in her amazing career to stretch this to 20 on a surface she is unproven on against the colts is a big ask but then thats what the superstar equine performers do, perform miracles.  My heart pleads for Zenyatta the machine to win (Trainer of Lookin at Lucky Bob Baffert said: When you see her go by horses, its like watching a killer whale play with seals).  However, my head says Quality Road may do it from the front.  He will be ridden aggressively and all I can hope is that Zenyatta comes hard at him in the straight and overpowers him for victory, it is all she deserves but 8/1 each way Quality Road for me.  Zenyatta could be vulnerable, it is famously more difficult to suit her style of finishing kick with the dirt surface that just gives horses slightly less traction…. I hope my gambling instinct is wrong.

In the preceeding race, Workforce is 7/4 to win the turf race which I think is a vulnerable price.  Al Khali at 14/1 is preferred.

Another cracking match bet in the 8.40 where two great rivals meet again – Who would tip Paco Boy to finally have an overdue and deserved victory against Goldikova?  At 6/1 an each way steal is available (Laddies), have some of that. 

While the flat world stars of Zenyatta, Workforce (my Arc winner), Goldikova and the like star at Churchill Downs, Kauto makes his usual debut at Down Royal in the JNwine.com.

4/6 on is not a bad price for Kauto who, as long as the Cheltenham form has not damaged his confidence and as long as he retains a half of his ability, should win comfortably – That said, I would want to see the weather conditions first.  There are some interesting competitors and I make Sizing Europe an awful 4/1 shot.  Killyglen, I suspect may still come good and China Rock at 13/2 is certain to put in a decent run.  Come on Kauto, put the pretenders to bed early and then lets see you next at Kempton on Boxing Day for a famous punch up with Long Run. 

As an early season race, I like the Badger Ales run at Wincanton (3.20pm).  Todays contest has some tasty runners and I like the chances of i’moncloudnine for Mulholland.  He is not my selection though.  After considering the Package who is a worthy favourite, my eye wandered to the pleasing sight of Meanus Dandy.  Nicholls loves taking this race and Meanus has had a sharpening spin already.  OK, it is a concern that he goes for headgear but a worth claimer in Popham talking 5lbs off an already handy 10s 2lb puts him right in it.  8/1 is available in many places.

The 2.10 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton has a host of potential winners in my view.  No doubt Australia Day has excellent claims and Ashkazar who won well for me at Cheltenham in April could be in the frame on one of his going days.  There is a horse I like in this race though that will be suited by the style it will be run.  There are so many front-runners (like Barizan) that pace is certain – This could set it up beautifully or the closing Nearby who can be found offered at 7/1 with our friends SportingBet.

Doncasters big November handicap offers a puzzle with 23 potential winners.  I plum for a wonderfully priced Lethal Glaze at 22/1 – TAKE THIS WITH SKYBET WHO OFFER 5 PLACES.  Lethal Glaze has been kept racing and I think new connections may get the best from a horse that shows glimpses of being decent.  I would advise a saver on Senate who at 6/1 with Ladbrookes will be a big threat for a stable that likes to compete for this £62k handicap.  

The Nap is a double on Chelsea and Birmingham City.  May your weekend be made more joyous with the uncomfortable bulk of a large roll of notes dispensed by your turf accountant – If he cries, tell him to man up… this is merely the start, you are one of the Majors s and we shall return.  May your dinner be french and good, something gamey.  Why not have a nice Brandy as an aperitif and a digestif too, surely that’s what Jesus would do.