Tag Archives: murbeh

The Saturday Service – The Majors Horseracing Tips – Newmarket and Ripon… The Cambridgeshire, Sun Chariot, Chevely Park, Royal Lodge plus Premier League Tips

Welcome from the Major to another fine Saturday of sporting action with some of the finest racing around.  Coffee and concentration has given the Major an edge, one that can only be satisfied by silencing the enemy and winning this round of action.

Timepiece is the 11/2 NAP of the day

So the Major calls you to arms, put on your red coat.  Sharpen your point and be prepared to pick off the enemy with no remorse, he offers you none in return.  We will be ready, just you, me, the other followers, our Brown Bess rifles and 40 rounds per man.

Remember that thin red line of the 93rd Balaclava and remember it never breaks even to infantry and horse charging downhill.  Our indomitable spirit is the same, unbreakable like Sir Colin Campbell the pit bull leader who loved a scrap.

Let us revel in the arena of sport which the good Lord has displayed before us.  It is revealed in its glory.  We have the Cambridgeshire, the toughest race to crack as a tipster.  The Cheveley, the Royal Lodge, listed national hunt races at Market Rasen and decent fayre from Ripon where the Major has a work acquaintance attending.

Let us start with the Royal Lodge, one of the Majors favourites.

2.05 Newmarket – The Royal Lodge – Group 2

There does not look like anything like the quality of last years 30/100 winner Frankel in this years renewal of the Royal Lodge.

Rockinate is of interest having possibly been unsuited by the soft conditions underfoot last time out.  He has a chance of giving Rock of Gibraltar a decided shove up the stud rankings.

The Major though prefers to go with Wrote.  O’Brien has had a quieter summer than usual but has a good record in this race.  Wrote looks to be a major player in the stable and I am going to back the Irish powerhouse of racing to take the race for a third time in six years.  4/1 with Paddy Power is fair enough.

2.35 Newmarket – Cheveley Park – Group 1

Where Rockinate might look beatable in the first, Best Terms looks a much more useful Hannon inmate.  This horse has improved with each appearance and last time out, the defeat of Fire Lily looked mighty impressive.

That said 5/4 gives little room for any other thoughts other than a Best Terms win, yet the Major thinks there are other potential winners to consider.

First alternative would have to be Lightening Pearl for Ger Lyons.  This looked to step up hugely on it’s last run and they have not made the trip across the sea without a hope of a big run.

Shumoos at a price if putting his best foot forward could threaten the places too.  At 20/1, although he has not progressed in the same way as Best Terms, he is running for a stable that know how to win a Cheveley Park.

On balance, keep it simple, Best Terms will win.

3.10 Newmarket – Sun Chariot Stakes – Group 1

The group one action continues at pace from Newmarket with a fantastic renewal of the Sun Chariot.  Saphresa and Rod Collet go for a hat trick of wins and with the horse in decent touch, who is to say they cannot do it from a best price 2/1.

This is one though that the Major feels easier to oppose.  Over the years, the Sun Chariot goes to a 3-year-old with the occasional 4-year-old winning.  Saphresa won last year as a 5-year-old and I think it is asking too much to expect the same again when there are cracking horses wanting to take this Group 1 with handy allowances.

It is the two three year olds I think we should focus on, both seem to represent better value.

Together, the O’Brien horse has seen plenty of action for a classic generation horse.  With a strikerate of just 2 wins in 13 starts, you must have some doubts but this is not the whole story.  The story of the defeats is interesting.  Two three-quarter length defeats in the British and Irish 2,000 Guineas show she is a class act.  Running well in defeat is always a concern for the Major but this is an O’Brien horse he has targeted for this race.  Interesting

Alanza is another of clear interest.  This John Oxx, Aga Khan and Murtagh special has improved markedly on the last three occasions but the Major is unsure that the running is any better than Together.

This makes life tough.  If you think that Alanza is 7/2 and Together 9/1, there is only one choice from the two.

The Major thinks an alternative is in order and Timepiece is the choice.  She is a class act, she has defeated Saphresa on her last meeting with her.  She has run credibly in Deauville at their festival the last twice.  I think at four, her best trip is still a mile at which she is four wins from five runs.  Shabash, take a slice.

3.50 Newmarket – The Cambridgeshire

This is a conundrum, disguised as a puzzle, hiding in an enigma, wrapped in Satans cloak.

If ever there was a race set to freeze your brain with draw bias, pace and handicap mark question marks, the Cambridgeshire is it.

The first twelve to get the dreaded black line were the top runners on the card.  No horse has won a Cambridgeshire in fifteen years off a higher weight than 9st 3lbs.  The most notable scalp of this cut was Man of Action, the Godolphin 11/1 shot.  Man of Action will love conditions but is ruled out on weight.

The Rowley mile course at Newmarket is stunning.  A wide expanse of land that allows the horses to gallop up onto a heath after the finish post.  Beautiful but the nature of the course means any patch of it may be chosen to run on.  This makes draw analysis of previous running useless.

The Major has opted for Questioning the Gosden horse who is also 11/1.  I like the 5l defeat to Pour Moi, I like the fact that Gosden has a sterling record in the Cambridgeshire and being 10lbs ahead of the handicapper, I am going to opt for this likelier sort to win.

4.15 Ripon – Class 2 Handicap

Paul, if you are reading, best of luck at Ripon.  While I would have liked to go through the entire card, I had to spend hours on Newmarket and so have had a look at the feature race to try and find a winner.

The horse first of interest to the Major is Murbeh.  Although off the track for some time since third in a Newmarket handicap, this Meehan runner has a big chance.  That day at Newmarket, he ran on well at the close and he will have plenty of pace to aim at today at Ripon.

Below Zero of the big prices is considered.  At 20/1, this Johnston horse ran extremely well to take a valuable Leopardstown race three starts back.  Since then, there have been two flops without particular explanation although taking so much racing in such a short time is as likely as any.  This will be Below Zeros 4th run in September and so is taken out of consideration… best watched.

Top weight Pepper Lane is a likely sort.  This one ran no sort of race in the Gold Cup at Ayr and the Major can only take it that this was entirely the wrong running.  Her last two races were at this track and both she finished on top.  She went into the Gold Cup up 22lbs since her first win of the season.  She would have to be good to win this of that mark but if you take her Gold Cup run out then she did look a Group sprinter in the making.  Considered.  Do not forget that she defeated Our Jonathan in her last Ripon run, she is a quality horse.

Discanti and Artic Feeling at prices also are off some interest.

On balance, the value in the race for the Major is Pepper Lane.  I am willing to suggest she is a much better horse than her Ayr Gold Cup run and 7/1 prices plenty of the question mark in.

To the sports….

Tottenham away make appeal at 19/20 and I think they will come away with the three points from Wigan.

QPR who have smashed Wolves and a Villa team where the faint calls of resignation from a manager many did not want…. good recipe for backing the hoops at 13/10.

I also like Man United to win at 10/17 away at Stoke.  Stoke did not have a European hangover excuse to roll out for their defeat last week to Sunderland and Manchester United have looked devastating every start this year.  10/17 is way too short in the Majors view.

May your dinner be a fine curry with a cold beer.  Consider eating it alone, after all one must not be worried about your own company.

Courage and shuffle those cards.

The Major at Ascot for Sagaro Stakes Day – Whizz Kidz Special

Ascot, finery, speed, thumping heartbeats, clean those saddlecloths young lancer, we ride at daybreak

The Major has to report that the Saturday Service was the most barren for some time without selecting a winning piece of advice.  Shame. Relentless positivity is the Majors mantra, it is always our move and so tomorrow we move to a new battleground in Berkshire.  A tipping service for each Ascot race is listed below.

Tomorrow the Major leads a troop of ten gallant young warriors for Sagaro Stakes Day.  The weather forecast is cool.  The car is packed with a marvelous luncheon of cut meats, lime and chilli skewered chicken, fresh  french style bread, salamis, cheeses, good ham, pimms based refreshments with some light beers and an interesting pear cider too… the Major has prepared stores for a lengthy battle with thanks reserved for Kelly who has performed quartermaster duty admirably. 

What a great day of racing too.  A moment to reflect on Sagaro who the feature race is named after.  This chestnut was the first horse to win three Ascot Gold Cups, an achievement only recently matched by Yeats.  This particular win is the Majors favourite, watch Lester in his 40s at this stage, remaining motionless in the leaders shadow, stalking silently, waiting, he knew what he had beneath him, then a shake of the reins and SHABASH the game is up.  Moments reflecting the past, make the achievement in the present more profound.

The purpose of the trip is both fun and in good cause.  You may remember that the Major suffered a knee injury recently, which happens to be a broken Patella.  It ruled me out of the marathon.  This is one of the fundraisers which we are going ahead with regardless as the cause is good and you try and stop us racing.

The Major is putting on the fun and the ten guests are coughing up a hearty donation to Whizz Kidz – A marvelous charity which provides mobility equipment and training, which changes the lives of many severely disabled children.  A great cause, it will be nice to sit in the hazy Berkshire sun in that fine surround knowing a great charity benefits.

To the cards and the winners.

2pm Aldemore Conditions Stakes

There was so much to like about Magic City in the Newbury victory although hanging left in the closing stages was a slight concern.

The same hanging tendency struck The Penny Horse whose overall form is poorer and was certainly less eye-catching but is arguably the best bred in the race, certainly One Cool Cookie the Sire has a much better sprinting pedigree than Magic City.

Miss Work of Art won a maiden at class 5 level which qualifies the filly for a zero penalty, thus she should be carrying 8, 6 in the Majors working but she is marked as 8, 10 on the Racing Post card, something is not right.

Overall there is little not to like about Magic City but 1/3 is not a backable prospect for a two-year old sprinter.  14/1 about The Penny Horse for small stakes is the Majors view.

2.30 EBF Stakes

Gosden is well armed for this Stakes race with some great 3yo prospects.  Flood Plain, 3/1, is regarded well enough to have been shipped to America for the Breeders Cup meeting, that didn’t work out but I am sure Gosden wasn’t flying him out for the air.

Hezmah, 2/1, is a surprising favourite to the Major but given it is a Gosden horse too, there is a strong indication that it is a better animal than Flood lain, the jockey booking of Richard Hills supports that.

Hills has started the season in good touch and Mystic Dream is a decent 11/2 proposition.  It had an interesting start to life winning a Deauville all weather contest.  More British trainers are raiding Ireland and France for the prizemoney and maybe that was the thinking, who knows. 

It is Mystic Dream and Dubaianswer, 10/1, that the Major finds interesting.  The latter should go well on the surface and has won his only race. 

Hmmm.  On balance if they were not by the same trainer I would opt for Flood Plain.  3/1 seems fair now he is dropped back in grade.  I cannot bring myself to back Meznah at 2/1 given the comparative form but that makes it hard to back Flood Plain if training connections have had them work together!

Byrony is an interesting sort on his mixed 2yo form.  I would have prefered a run but he is experienced.  What puts me off is the ground, I am not sure he wants it rattling.

This is a tough call.  Dubaianswer at 10/1 is the selection but it is hard to put you off any of them.

3.05 Britains Got Talent Stakes Race

What a great name for a race.  Who knows if there is a production party on hand.

St Moritz is the choice of the Major who although set with the burden of top weight, will thrive on the jarring ground.

Zacinto will be a threat to all if the trainer has him back at his best.  This Dansili colt though might just need to wait for some cut in the ground to be seen back to his best.  That said 4 and a half lengths short of Goldikova, 1 and a half short of Paco Boy, if Zacinto is back to his best, game over.

Your choice, St Moritz each way at 7/1 for the sensible folk or load the cannon on Zacinto at 3/1.

3.40 Group 3 Sagaro Stakes

The Betchworth Kid made a winning return to the flat and is interesting having won on firm.  Not the most solid prospect though.

The ones that will love conditions are Asker Tau, Akmal, Rajik and possibly the Queens horse, Free Agent.

Akmal certainly has some questions to answer. 

Asker Tau and Rajik are the two to consider for the Major.  On balance, Asker Tau feels better value at a bigger price and with trainer form assured.  Rajik would be picked but the last ten runners of Charlie Mann have only returned one place.

4.15 Cleanevent Pavilion Stakes

An interesting line up, some real quality, some back in trip, others looking for a return to form.

Murbeh, 16/1, has a squeak back on more suitable ground but on seasonal debut is best watched.  I have seen worse 16/1 shots though for those that like a price.

Libranno for Hannon and Hughes is bound to be involved but will have to be resilient to win carrying a penalty.  That said, the Craven form has a touch of class about it.

On balance, the Major goes for Margot Did, 9/4.  This one will like conditions, has good form in the book and with Hayley on board, Shabash!

4.50 The Ascot Handicap

What a finish, a conundrum in a puzzle wrapped in a swirling vortex of possibility.  Thank God the Major has solved it.

Lord Aeryn is a tasty 13/2 and Prince Apollo is a tastier 12/1. 

On the former, conditions will not be a problem, recent form looks good and there can be more improvement, solid.

On the second, mixed form can correlate to ground conditions.  Back on the preferred rattling surface, having a recent win under his belt, with a red hot trainer (4 winners from 5 runners in last fortnight, a more hit and miss prospect but 12/1, at this stage of day, it is time for KABOOOM!

Good luck to you all.