Tag Archives: pure faith

The Saturday Sermon – Old Roan Aintree Tips – Racing Post Trophy Horseracing Tips

The Major bids you good morning from a wonderfully cold Defford where the biting air of winter is alike souls awakening.

Winter is gods chosen season and Old Roan Chase day is the sign that soon there will be no sign of a wasp, no hint of a sunburn and glorious long dark nights where a man may achieve a slumber of death and emerge blinking and reborn into the new day.

Aidan knows how good Camelot is, we get to see today at Donnie

National Hunt racing is back to take over the mantle from the flat.  The day is symbolic, we see Aintree and the Old Roan and we also see the potential derby horse in his last run of the season in the Racing Post Trophy.

What a nice move to name the Old Roan after Monet’s Garden the popular white chaser.  It is the highlight of an interesting card at Aintree.

As for the Racing Post Trophy.  Will the entirely unexposed O’Brien favourite , Camelot, triumph?  Very possible, but at 6/4 the Major is in the no camp, more of that shortly.

A lifetime of gambling on horses is a lifetime of education.  The accumulation of knowledge and the development of instinct.  Surely Peter in Chapter 1 which was written in amanuensis was referring to our lifetime battle with the enemy.

And to knowledge, self-control; and to self-control, perseverance; and to perseverance, godliness.  For if you possess these qualities in increasing measure, they will keep you from being ineffective and unproductive

So to knowledge and to the sports, let us strike mercilessly at the enemies dark soul and to victory, upright and vigorous.

The Monets Garden Old Roan Chase – Aintree

How disappointing that this such an old institution as the Roan Chase attracts just three runners.  Masterminded and Albertas Run are worthy of their places, Pure Faith is not.

How delighted the four owners must be at the defections from this Grade 2.  From a stone and a half out of the handicap, you would think Pure Faith would have to be lucky to finish third of three but the prizemoney for allocating this slot is still £5500.

As for the winner, the Major would think Masterminded over Albertas Run but at 1/2 and 15/8, it is hard to enthuse over the chances of either with both making seasonal reappearance and the uncertainties of pace in a three runner affair.

No bet for the Major.

The Racing Post Trophy – Doncaster

This is a much better betting medium and we have a few angles into the race.

O’Brien always takes this race as a serious route for his best colts and in Camelot we have an entirely unexposed sort.  Sent off to win his maiden in good style, he was catapulted to the head of the derby market which is incredible considering the level of form.

Yes, O’Brien has a great record in the race and I have no doubt that the market is effected by memory of St Nicholas Abbeys dramatic win a few years previous but 6/4 is no price up against horses with better form.

The colt that the Major prefers is Fencing, who missed the Dewhurst due to too firm conditions.  The last win is as good as anything on show with plenty of subsequent winners in behind.  3/1 is fair enough for the best form horse in the race – Have a slice.

4.35 Galway Novice Chase

I am loving this race as a betting medium.  The ground, the trip and the presence of two horses who will slit each others throats at the front equals a real opportunity.

I am happy to oppose both Foildubh and Regal D’Estruval who I think will not enjoy each others company tearing along at a proper pace.

The suspicion is that Ainama and Sweeps Hill will be seen to better effect over further but then again, the heavy ground will be an aid to both.

Westmeath has the services of Davy Russell suggesting it is a superior horse to Grey Soldier but Westmeath comes with the warning that his trainer does not think soft is ideal.  This is an odd statement given his track record is raced 4, won 2 and placed once on soft (never raced on worse) although it is worth noting the sire record of Kayf Tara offspring is shocking so maybe he has an OK record in spite of the ground and not because of it.

Sweeps Hill is probably the classier of all of these on what we have seen so far but again, ground doubts exist.

There you go, I have found a reason for all to lose so which reason at what odds am I willing to discard?

I have decided to select Foildubh at 8/1.  While he might like prominence, he is not always a tear them up sort and if comfortable sitting off the pace may be hard to pin back.

2.15 Newbury

There are two that appeal in this at opposite ends of the market.  The favourite Saigon has shown the best form and will be fine with firmer underfoot conditions and as a result, you should take a slice of the 7/2 he will win.  His Middle Park form is better than anything else and with Murtagh assisting (rare ride for yard), I fully expect a win.

The other I fancy is rank 50/1 outsider, Wise Selection.  He will also like conditions and while he has been a flop in the summer, the maiden he won had a very good look to it.  Maybe, they can find the key to this tricky individual and it is interesting he is thrown back into listed company.

To the sports…

Three football teams to follow in the premier league today.  Mr Hill will once again be furious as I suggest odds against priced Villa represent 13/10 value against West Brom.

Newcastle should see off Wigan and 8/13 for the Toon undefeated team looks good to me.

Finally, Bolton benefitted from the international break and I suspect their improvement to stick at home to a Sunderland team that the Major thinks is vulnerable.  They spent a lot of money badly and I think Bruce to go next in the Premier League should be considered too.

May dinner reflect the glories of the day.  May the company be both interesting and willing.  Tip well.  Enjoy the simplistic detail, the sound of the rain on the conservatory roof and the warmth of a good jacket in the bracing air.

Courage readers…… roll those dice.

 

The Saturday Sermon – Champions Day Tips, Frankel, Cheltenham Racing Tips….. Shabash

Good morning from the Major who writes to you from the wooden kitchen table of the Defford pile. The day has awoken with the glorious countenance of opportunity. Can you smell the crackle of excitement? It is good to be alive.

Frankel first, fresh air second?

Champions Day at Ascot. The richest card ever put together in the UK. A real showcase to the end of the flat season. Credit to the good people of Racing for Change who have worked hard and made big choices carving up the racing calendar to make this day.

The ground though makes me nervous at Ascot. Good weather would have produced a naturally firm surface but of course, to attract the best, then they needed the word good, preferably on its own. To attain it they watered and the Major is concerned that there may be some false / dead ground and some expected results might get turned over.

In short it might be a day for the enemy. That dark and twisted man plotting to fool us with perplexing markets and swirling clouds of confusion. Surely the New International bible in Proverbs 2 was referring to same…

Wisdom will save you from the ways of wicked men, from men whose words are perverse, who have left the straight paths to walk in dark ways, who delight in doing wrong and rejoice in the perverseness of evil, whose paths are crooked and who are devious in their ways.

Allow the Major to be your punting shepherd.

To the track………

Ascot. Frankel.

I have said enough about Frankel already. He seems to me to be the horse that will mark recent times. Although Sea the Stars has probably achieved more than Frankel ever will, unless he can stay to win next years Arc… Frankel is unbelievable.

Can he get beaten at 4/11, of course he could. Does 4/11 represent value….. Hard to read for the Major. It feels perhaps generous but the margin is small. Immortal Verse is the only other one to give a squeak to but surely we know Sundays headline. If you fancy Frankel to smash them, I suggest the evens price with William Hill that he wins by two lengths. Not for the Major. If you like your bets served with a side dish of massive kahunas, I suggest Side Glance e/w 66/1 – Track form.

Just one note on breeding. Frankel is out of Galileo, his Dam was out of Danehill, true blue blood. If he did (as the Majors heart cries out) go for the Arc as a 4yo, he would, incredibly, be the first Galileo colt to do it.

4.10 Ascot – Tips for the Middle Distance Champions Race

So You Think looks terrific value on a pure form line with most but I have to say that he has been well used this season and although there were excuses in the Arc, I already had concerned he may be over the top. One to avoid in the Majors view.

The horse that the Major opts for is one I think coming well to hand and worthy of a pop, Snow Fairy.

She was a gamble for the Arc in which she finished one place better than SYT and she is tough as nails. Her win record could put you off but I really feel obliged to give her another chance, take a slice.

Cheltenham – The Showcase Saturday Tips

I had a cracking day tipping up Cheltenham yesterday with three winners at 11/8, 5/2 and 10/1.

I am following the same logic to pick out my best bets on the Saturday Showcase card. Good luck to those at Prestbury.

2.05 – The first four in the market all have a shout but I opting for the 11/2 Nicholls trained Round Tom. The Hereford handicap which is sandwiched by two wins may just have been over too far a distance. He has shown a liking for firm surfaces and as hinted at yesterday, in the early meetings of the season, I am inclined to avoid Nicholls with his winter brigade but am happy to back his summer jumpers who are fit as a fiddle – Don’t forget Nicholls took this novice last year.

2.40 – Benbane Head looks very interesting back on his prefered firm surface, the Major would not put you off. However, 4/1 is a shortish price. The Major is going to take the plunge on Edgbriar. He won this last year and his mark is pretty much the same. He has a more likely stable companion running but since top jock has defected, the Major has too, 9/1, load the medium cannon with the chain shot. Perhaps a Benbane Head saver.

3.15 This is a classic example of a horse I want to dodge in Tonic Mellysse, the Nicholls favourite. Plan A is the definite form selection but having failed to record a win on three starts on good to firm, there is a question. I am persuaded to take a chance that third favourite Palawi at 4/1 might be the solution. He has been prepped with a flat run and while his last course visit was pretty poor, his Aintree form, prior to fall, looked very good in this context. Take a substantial slice.

3.50 – Plenty of potential winners including Galaxy Rock, Benny be Good, Ethiopia and Balthazar King. It is Galaxy Rock and Balthazar King I struggle to split, I just opt for the latter at 6/1 but would think a saver in order. Not a certainty, just a value proposition.

4.25 – Queen of Cool will be seen in better light on this ground, small stake advised.

4.55 – Health is Wealth and Pure Faith both have claims on the ground but the Majors preference is for Zaynar. This former placed horse in the Champion Hurdle is clearly the best here and despite a poor season last year and an uncertainty of adapting to fences, the Major says, stick with quality.

5.30 – The lucky last, good luck to you. Alexandr Nevsky for Tom Taafe and Ruby Walsh is an obvious contender, Ruby having an extremely rare ride for the Taafe team. As much as I will probably regret it though, I am going for Clondaw Warrior whose stable has a tremendous record with this young jockey and the last win was both well executed and well franked.

Other sports…….

I always find it difficult to back Premier League games after the international break. Many form teams suffer, losing momentum and it gives teams with recent poor results time off to regroup… no bet scenario.

As for the Rugby, I am going to opt for France. They are an odd team and I understand the drive behind such a youthful upcoming Welsh contingent but France will be a different proposition…. 11/8, easy.

May your dinner be in a half reasonable establishment with the sort you have your eye on in the office. Always awkward, have a few glasses of champagne and then a pastis aperitif. As dinner starts she will loosen up. By the time the bill is presented and she sees the roll from which you settle it, her mind will be made up. La Gallop, enjoy.

Courage, shuffle the cards.