Tag Archives: sea the stars

A winner at last!

After a long barren period, which had diminished the blogs profitability to under £70, at last we found a winner in the shape of 7.4 Amhjar – Hoorah.

I am determined to buld on that success.  First of all, this week is the York Ebor meeting which is excellent stuff.  I was dissapointed though to see that the sheer task of facing Sea the Stars has put so many quality horses off.  Only 5 are now due at post for tomorrows Juddmonte and I find this astonishing.  Prize money for 5th is £16,000, second pays a six figure sum, surely some more quality could come to oppose.

O’Brien saddles three of Sea the Stars opponenents and two look like pace makers.  I cannot see pacemakers helping – I suggested this tactic might get STS beaten in the Derby – read here – how wrong I was that day.  Over this ideal looking trip for STS, I am sure the horse will prefer a couple of pace setters in the five to make it a proper race.  I would have thought the better tactic would be to try and make the race tactical.  Maybe O’Brien has something like that in mind and we will see how he plays his cards tomorrow.  Everyone seems to think STS is unbeatable and that 3/1 Mastercraftsmen is probably not as good as Fame and Glory and Rip Van Winkle who STS has seen off so far.  This could also start to explain the lack of runners – Are there stud reputations at stake?  Seems unlikely to me but why not run decent types in a race like this? 

Monday racing often throws up some sorry looking contests and the best race today is on the all weather either at Kempton 3.30pm or Wolves at 3.15pm.  The Wolves race is more intruiging so here we go:

There is an odds on favourite here and I am going to oppose!  Prescription is currently trading at 1.79 and I think it is awful value.  The racing post tipster and journalist, Winstanley, thinks it is a maximum bet! 

Yes the horse looks the best on paper but odds on in a stronger race with more runners and pitfalls than last time, no thanks!  It is also drawn on the outside.  I have this as a 9/4 shot so the 8/11 must be strongly opposed in my view – This could be expensive – I also think a small lay of the place at 1.19 could be rewarding.

The market is 9/1 bar and the two I fancy out of the pack are Something and Mutamared. 

Something is something of an AW 7f specialist but comes from the sprint king stable of Nicholls.  He certainly knows what it takes to win this and I would expect a big run.  ou cannot overlook the fact that this horse is THREE FROM THREE on the all weather.  Very interesting at 10.5 / 2.6

Mutamared is an old hand at this at the age of nine and is a horse that has shown plenty of class in his day.   The horse has not shown as much form on turf this summer and he last few runs on all weather were not quite as good either so we have to go back to February for his last win which completed an impressive five timer.  His last run was his first time out for 8 weeks and he would have been entitled to it.  This is more competitive but my spidey senses are telling me that Kevin Ryan will have it ready and Neil Callan is one of my favourites.  Overpriced at 23 / 4.1.

EGGSN IN A BASKET ADVICE

The advice today is risky!  By offering the lay and betting on another in the same race I am doubling my liabilities with a big chance of backfiring.  I just cannot help it though – When you feel strongly that the price is wrong, you have to oppose and ‘bet like men’.

Advice: WIN MARKET –  Lay Prescription for £20 at 1.79 back Something at 10.5 and Mutamared at 23 with £8

PLACE MARKET – Lay Prescription for £35 at 1.2 back Something and Mutamared at 2.6 and 4.3 at £15 and £10 respectively.

Today Ade fancies Rocket Rob in the 6.35 at Windsor.  By this stage I could be stinging because my selections in an open field performed poorly and prescription hosed up!  So I shall have a tenner on too at 3.75.  It might be a loss mitigater but fingers crossed form is returning for the Major.

Coral Eclipse Day

I do love the Coral Eclipse.  It often gives a great chance for the leading three year olds to take on their older more experienced forerunners.

This renewal is a classic.  Sea the Stars who I tipped for the 2000 Guineas before ignoring for the Derby (foolishly) has another chance to show his talents.

Looking back at the Derby win, I think it was better than it looked.  I think Sea the Stars idled a little in front and may have won with a bit in hand.  Who knows what his best distance is, he looks comfortable at everything.  The trip is also a concern for the dual Group One winner Conduit who opposes.  The St Ledger winner has won over a mile and so you would think he has the toe for this and with a couple of pacemakes, Sir Michael Stoute will be trying to draw the sting from Sea the Stars.

My opinion is that Sea the Stars has the potential to be special.  Therefore I cannot be against him.  Having said that the 6 to 4 on is dissapearing and I can’t back at those prices.  Shall be a great race to watch. 

What do I fancy today.  Well, pricewise is keen on Yes Mr President in the 3.30 at Haydock and I have to say his reasoning seems sound.  At 10.5 / 3.2 on Betfair, I like it!  stablemate Drill sargeant could make it a one two for Mark Johnstone.

The other runner I like is in the 2.40 at Sandown, the Heritage Handicap.  We’ll Come is my selection a horse that runs well on the distance and ground.  Winning this handicap requires previous evidence of quality and the selection has that and history shows that this is a race where quality shows rather than a well handicapped shocker.

Advice:

£10 each way Yes Mr President 10/1 and We’ll Come 11/1

COMPETITION £250 each way on both bets

Derby Day

With work taking an unfortunate precedence, few posts this week and neither myself or Ade (who seems to have gone to ground since the German ousted him as taking someone elses work!) have kicked off the contest.  I am changing that with some action today.

Derby Day, its raining.  After getting up at 5.30 with my two young boys, I have taken the opportunity to fill my belly with coffee and found moments to read the RP and think through much of the Derby evidence.  Maybe it is fatigue but I am convinced I have the winner.  This is not normally a good sign – My winning bets are directly inverse to the level of confidence I have in them, which really hints that I should give the game up.

However, with May showing a tidy profit, June needs a decent start so here goes. 

The Derby.

Current Market (Betfair)

Sea The Stars 3.95
Fame And Glory 5.1
Rip Van Winkle 7.8
Gan Amhras 8.4
Black Bear Island 9.4
Masterofthehorse 18.5
Crowded House 22
Age Of Aquarius 23
Kite Wood 48
Golden Sword 36
Montaff 80
Debussy 80

Here are my views and selections:

Seas the Stars – John Oxx has had a fantastic season and his sole Derby representative is likely to start as favourite after many people liked his 2,000 Guineas win.  I am less sure of this runner and have a few reservations.  Firstly, the trip is unsure both on breeding and form.  I am not saying he definitely will not get it but it is not a nice question to have in the Derby.  I am also not enamered as many are with the 2,000 Guineas form.  Delegator failed to frank it when expected to take the Irish version, which may not have been a damning piece of form given the heavy conditions faced but Sea The Stars (although tipped by the Major in the 2,000) is overlooked here.  If anything I think he might be a place lay.  O’Brien is a master of tactics – He is running half of the field!  I am sure Golden Sword will be put to good use and will draw the sting from STS.  Plus, 2000 Guineas winners have not had a great recent record in the Derby.

Fame and Glory – I am glad to see FAG (how unfortunate) is the favourite of the O’Brien contingent.  Ultimately he has a right to be.  Unbeaten in four starts and taking the same winning route many other Ballydoyle stars have on route to Derby success.  Much more likely to get the trip, this is better opposition than he has ever faced but I fancy a step up in class.

Rip Van Winkle – RVW is a puzzle to me.  This horse has been heavily fancied and I must admit to having some antepost action on him at 12s which I later got out of at 7s.  Johnny Murtagh has picked him and as Ballydoyles number one jockey this is influential.  It has been very influential in the market and I am sure that Fame and Glory would be hot property and a certain favourite if the emporers thumb had gone the other way.  I am unsure this will get the trip as well and since I am not sure of the 2000 Guineas form, it’s fourth there is not great form.  It would not be the first time Johnny has made the wrong selection and to be fair it is not an easy choice.  I for one think he will be regretting his selection at 3.50pm today.

Gan Amhras for me has a better curve than many others at the head of the market.  He is likely to appreciate the step up in trip and has great claims for a place, if not a shot at the title.  More than any other 2000 Guineas rival, this one to me looked like he would be a Derby horse – In my thoughts.

Black Bear Island – This was my early Derby favourite and I must admit to having some antepost slips in his favour.  A full brother to a previous Derby winner, this Dante winner will definitely favour a mile and a half.  I think of the O’Brien runners this is the best closer from deep and that could be crucial.  Ryan Moore picks up the ride and while I am not a big fan (I think he likes the glory of holding up far superior horses, delivering it as late as possible to have commentators cooing over his timing!  Occassionally he gets this badly wrong and gets considerably and justified stick).  For my criticism, I think that style will suit BBI.  I dont think this one has to improve that much to feature and with tactics in this crucial, the race may be run to suit…  hmmm.

Other mentions – The masterofthehorse poor run (see previous post on JMs bad week at Chester) may mask a better horse.  Golden Sword held him that day after being given far too comfortable a lead.  Surely Golden Sword has a tactical role today.  Plus, if O’Brien needs to pressure Sea the Stars and test that stamina, Golden Sword will be put to more use and therefore more useless in the final 2f.  Kite Wood requires significant improvement and I am sure some will come but not enough – outside place hope with Frankie up top especially if he settles better (was keen in the Dante).  Montaff is also overpriced with Hills to help this horse – I will overrule this horse from entering the frame so I am not backing too much but essentially the second to Age of Aquarius when entitled to the run is not bad form for this.  For me the right price is 25/1 not 50/1, thats all I am saying.  Debussy has ground to make up on horses I dont fancy so is easy to rule through.

How will it pan out?

I fancy Golden Sword to bowl along at a generous gallop.  O’Brien will want to ask Sea the Stars the crucial stamina question and I am sure the riding instructions for GS will be to make the most of him.  I would be surprised if Fame and Glory was held up and I fancy Heffernan to have this one cruising in fourth at the top of the hill.   Held up, Black Bear Island and Age of Aquarius will be suited by a generous pace and I expect them to be flashing home at the finish.

 What a great Derby – Five Questions Answered by 3.50pm (My predictions too)

Was RVW the right choice for Johnny Murtagh?

No I think he will regret it – I think the prize will go to Ballydoyle but not with VW

Will the recent death of Vincent O’Brien mean an emotional win for his son?

No doubt his fathers death will be on Aidans mind today and noone would fail not to see a fitting tribute witha  Ballydoyle winner.  Vincent was the king of all trainers on the flat and over the obstacles – It is never wise to be on emtional outcomes but racing has a habit of writing its own tale and I think an O’Brien trained one two is the right result.

Does Sea the Stars have star quality?

No, I do not think his 2,000 uineas win was as impressive as many others do – Happy to be proved wrong but too many questions on this one and I would be happy to place lay at 1.6.

A surpise on the books?

To me the race has a flavour of that but history says no.  You have to go back to ’98 to find a double priced winner-  This leaves RVW, Gan ahmras, Sea the Stars, Black Bear Island and Fame and Glory to choose from.

What is the result then?

1. Fame and Glory 2. Black Bear Island 3. Gan Amhras 4. Sea the Stars 5. RVW 6. Age of Aquarius 7. Kite Wood 8. Masterofthehorse 9. Montaff 10. Golden Sword 11. Crowded House  12. Debussy

Advice: Fame and Glory Win £20 4/1 generally available and £10 win and place on Black Bear Island 9.4 and 2.96

Tim Versus Ade: £250 on Fame and Glory at 4/1 £200 ew on Black Bear Island 9.4 and 2.96 – Good Luck

Ouch – Quevega was not the best of the three!

Let’s start with the 2,000 guineas.  I do enjoy the first classic of the season the most.  Watching George Washington win this a few years back was a fantastic experience for me, probably his best performance, the turn of foot was explosive. 

This renewal doesn’t throw up an obvious superstar.  Coolmores superb record in the race cannot be overlooked and therefore Mastercraftsman and Rip van Winkle are of obvious interest.  I have them both backed ante-post which on reflection was like printing money as they inevitably shorten up.. wish I had printed more of it!

RVW suffered a stone bruise recently but that hasn’t put off J Murtagh from taking the ride, could this be the finger from Coolmore identifying the better runner.  They usually know their best runner but not always and so money for either on the day would be significant in my eyes.

Mastercraftsmen will get the top ground surface he likes and Pats Smullen is equal in my eyes to Johnny Murtagh.

Both have clear chances but the selection comes from another Irish Raider, John Oxx.  Sea the Stars is a well bred horse who must rate as a great price for the Derby at this stage (will probably be better at the distance).  However, the trainer is shrewd enough and with pace assured and always does well when straying into big English races.

Punchestown Four Year Old Hurdle 2.55 Grade One

Put simply Mourad looks by some margin the best of these.  With Willie and Walsh both on fire this week, this one looks good for some profit making.

4/6 doesn’t put me off.

Football

To make a change, a football fixture is selected.

The horror show (Sorry Latics and Bolton fans) is at the JJB where two teams with nothing to play for meet Wigan v Bolton.  Wigan are the leagues lowest scorers, neither team do well in North West derbies.  Uninspiring stuff.  0-0, 1-0, 0-0 HT, Less than 2 goals…. take your pick.

Advice:

Back Sea the Stars win £5 13 and place £5 4.4

Back Mourad Win £30

Back 0-0 10, 1-0 8.8, 0-0 HT 2.9 and less than 2 goals 3.5 all with £3.