Good evening from the Major who writes with tips for the opening of the July Cup meeting at Newmarket on Thursday. I am going to be brief and cover the group races.
I have been posting a few tips to Twitter this week and from four selections have delivered a 20/1 short head second, a 9/2 winner, a non runner and a dog! Fair form for the Major so let’s hope we can pick some winning tips for Thursdays Newmarket card. If you have a twitter account I am @tdl123 – you can abuse me for money lost or celebrate with me if we have a winner or two….
1.20 Bahrain Trophy
Newmarkets July meeting kicks off with a lovely group 3 race for the boys of the classic generation.
Connections have taken their time with Valiant who is sure to improve further on the two wins we have seen. Patience could pay with this one and 9/4 seems fair. The horse will be fine with any cut too.
The Major though (and please don’t be put off) is opting for the favourite Shantaram. 13/8 gives a great price (boylesports) for the horse with far the best form in the race. His second to subsequent derby runner up Main Sequence is by far the best on offer. More than that, this race has proven a great guide to the Leger in past years, when Gosden puts one in here (trainer won it last year) we should pay attention. Add stable form and it’s an irresistible mix…. Sometimes 13/8 is a cracking price!
1.50 July Stakes
The second race is a tasty group two and the Major is steering you towards the O’Brien inmate Gale Force Ten who is best price 10/3 with Ladbrokes.
There is always the talk of the connectivity between Ballydoyle and Ladbrokes but the Major does not hesitate in offering a tip for Gale Force Ten despite Ladbrokes view.
The thing is that O’Brien rarely uses this race but has won it before. Plus the Ascot form of GFT is strong, he won the race on his side (Ahern in behind). More rain no problem, extra furlong an advantage….
My only beef is the name of the horse. I thought when weather got that bad it was referred to as Storm Force Ten? I am a regular at the allotted 12.45 witching hour to listen to the chop of the ocean in such places as German Bight and South East Iceland.
3.00 Prince of Wales
The last group race at Newmarket on the opening of their July festival is the Prince of Wales Stakes.
Red Cadeaux is going to appreciate conditions and has shown that all the talent remains. Harris Tweed is also to be feared but the Major finds one at a double figure price…
Modun is an interesting 10/1 shot for Godolphin. Frankie is in the saddle and he rode a treble tonight (last night depending on when you read this) at Kempton. This horse has looked ill placed to me. He has not travelled brilliantly overseas although his fourth in Meydan was reasonable behind Bronze Cannon. Clearly he didn’t give his race in the Melbourne Cup but he has shown very solid past form in the UK and I think a return to that form will put him in with a chance.
The main danger in a race where I think a big price horse might go in is the Stoute trained Fiorente who finished a distance behind Sea Moon latest but could be better than that – the 14/1 shot earns consideration on the grounds of trainer trend in the race.
Overall though I am going to stick with 10/1 shot Modun for the tip in the Prince of Wales…
Courage and roll those dice.