Tag Archives: shantaram

Thursday Newmarket Tips – July Cup Meeting, including 10/1 shot

Good evening from the Major who writes with tips for the opening of the July Cup meeting at Newmarket on Thursday. I am going to be brief and cover the group races.

I have been posting a few tips to Twitter this week and from four selections have delivered a 20/1 short head second, a 9/2 winner, a non runner and a dog! Fair form for the Major so let’s hope we can pick some winning tips for Thursdays Newmarket card. If you have a twitter account I am @tdl123 – you can abuse me for money lost or celebrate with me if we have a winner or two….

1.20 Bahrain Trophy

Newmarkets July meeting kicks off with a lovely group 3 race for the boys of the classic generation.

Connections have taken their time with Valiant who is sure to improve further on the two wins we have seen. Patience could pay with this one and 9/4 seems fair. The horse will be fine with any cut too.

The Major though (and please don’t be put off) is opting for the favourite Shantaram. 13/8 gives a great price (boylesports) for the horse with far the best form in the race. His second to subsequent derby runner up Main Sequence is by far the best on offer. More than that, this race has proven a great guide to the Leger in past years, when Gosden puts one in here (trainer won it last year) we should pay attention. Add stable form and it’s an irresistible mix…. Sometimes 13/8 is a cracking price!

1.50 July Stakes

The second race is a tasty group two and the Major is steering you towards the O’Brien inmate Gale Force Ten who is best price 10/3 with Ladbrokes.

There is always the talk of the connectivity between Ballydoyle and Ladbrokes but the Major does not hesitate in offering a tip for Gale Force Ten despite Ladbrokes view.

The thing is that O’Brien rarely uses this race but has won it before. Plus the Ascot form of GFT is strong, he won the race on his side (Ahern in behind). More rain no problem, extra furlong an advantage….

My only beef is the name of the horse. I thought when weather got that bad it was referred to as Storm Force Ten? I am a regular at the allotted 12.45 witching hour to listen to the chop of the ocean in such places as German Bight and South East Iceland.

3.00 Prince of Wales

The last group race at Newmarket on the opening of their July festival is the Prince of Wales Stakes.

Red Cadeaux is going to appreciate conditions and has shown that all the talent remains. Harris Tweed is also to be feared but the Major finds one at a double figure price…

Modun is an interesting 10/1 shot for Godolphin. Frankie is in the saddle and he rode a treble tonight (last night depending on when you read this) at Kempton. This horse has looked ill placed to me. He has not travelled brilliantly overseas although his fourth in Meydan was reasonable behind Bronze Cannon. Clearly he didn’t give his race in the Melbourne Cup but he has shown very solid past form in the UK and I think a return to that form will put him in with a chance.

The main danger in a race where I think a big price horse might go in is the Stoute trained Fiorente who finished a distance behind Sea Moon latest but could be better than that – the 14/1 shot earns consideration on the grounds of trainer trend in the race.

Overall though I am going to stick with 10/1 shot Modun for the tip in the Prince of Wales…

Courage and roll those dice.

Friday Royal Ascot Tips – Profitable Ascot so far from the Major

Good morning from the Major whose Ascot week has been quite profitable so far.  Profitable yes, spectacular, not quite.

Yesterday, Princess Highway added to the winners with an 8/1 comfortable win (advised 13/2) and I thought we were desperately unlucky in the first with my 12/1 selection finishing fifth after being hampered at the furlong pole.

Today I have only time for a short post so I offer you some speedy tips…

The Albany Stakes Tips – Ascot 2.30pm

Newfangled is a tasty favourite for this after having the race on her schedule following her easy Newmarket win.  Given that was on soft you can see why she would be all the rage this morning.

That said, others will handle soft too and I am looking for some value.  In the last five years we have had winners at 50/1, 16/1, 16/1 as well as an odds on favourite.

The Albany tip from the Major is going to Sandreamer at 16/1.  It is an animal that fits the ‘could be anything’ bracket after smashing moderate horses on debut.  The ground is a slight concern as that race was on good to firm and these conditions will be very different but I like most that the trainer has taken the Albany three times in ten years.

Of the rest, Sendmylovetorose is also terrific value at 16/1 and I would not put anyone off a pop at that one, given the easy debut win at Naas on soft.

3.05 King Edward Stakes Tips

I am a fan of Shantaram in this, currently 8/1 and set to drift if the Betfair money markets are right, I think I might be swimming against the tide.

Yet I thought the formline with Main Sequence and the progressive nature of the horse suggested that Shantaram was not simply rounding up the numbers in this. 

Of the others, I see no reason why Noble Mission will reverse form with Thought Worthy with the latter a true St Leger sort who will benefit over this further distance.

The Coronation Stakes Tip – Ascot 3.45

The 1,000 guineas form is crucial to assessing what is likely to happen in this race and the racing world has a definite chasm in opinion.  Some think that the form shown by Homecoming Queen in unusual conditions was exceptionally good, leading all the way and others think it is a race to discard.

The Major is towards the latter and certainly do not think the favourite is a good thing here.

Instead I offer Laugh Out Loud who since the 1,000 Guineas has won well in France and at York and surely won’t be making the mistake of giving Homecoming Queen as much rope this time.  9/2 have a slice.

Finally, in the 5pm Queens Vase, I would suggest a bet on the Queens horse, 4/1 Estimate.  Interesting that she is competing against the boys over this stayers distance and I would suggest this tip is not merely patriotic!