Tag Archives: starluck

The Majors Rather Special Grand National Saturday Service – Load the Cannons Followers

For once the Major bids you a good late evening from starry Defford where the Major pens his Saturday Service on the evening shift.  Horseracing tips across the Aintree Grand National card have been prepared.  Why is the Major up late completing the weekly sermon?  Is the Major tiring of rising before 6am on a Saturday for the purpose of researching the days value in our relentless battle against the enemy?  The answer is no, of course not.

To Aintree and let the magic unfurl. Hoof, noise and battle - It will not be pretty

As always followers can get the latest posts alerted to them by following twitter @tdl123 of signing up to the free email service in the left hand column.  The Major remains free, amateur and unhinged.

Well done to young virile Sean, one of our band of fortune who bravely went in on the Majors advice to take the reverse forecast on Masterminded and Albertas Run.  I hope those nerve endings tingled.  I understand more winners were on the cards for you too, there was warm work to be had with the enemy fighting vigorously and frantically with slashing blade but you kept a cool hand and deflected his devious strokes, it returned for you a rich spoil, excellent work.  Incidentally, you have AP McCoy, one of the greatest men ever to walk the earth to thank.  Albertas Run was off the bridle from 5 furlongs out, how many other jocks would have kept their animal up to the work to finish second.  How many would have that strength both physical and mental?  He held off third by sheer force of will, superb – any animal with 4 legs capable of being saddled and ridden by Tony McCoy will always make a sound proposition. 

A quiet, mysterious and largely unknown tipster from the West Country known as the Shannonator gave up Battle Group yesterday to a small select few, which the Major duly failed to follow, well done to Mr Day who I know had a tasty touch.  Mr Hill, unlucky on Albertas Run – Compensation was sought on Devil to Pay at Fontwell.  Your method is questionable, your result emphatic.  Mr Febery – Surely it is time to break the habit and bet like a man on the National, be irresponsible, the good lord demands it. 

Just look at how Big Bucks hurdles, it is a thing of beauty, elegance, efficiency, speed, grace, skill and athleticism.

The Major is going to the heart of the beast’s lair tomorrow to do battle at Aintree.  Needs therefore must, I resolve not to let you, the faithful few, you brace of warriors down.

Grand National Day.  Special.

Grand National day is emotive and part of English fabric.  Most people bet on the National, it is annual habit, a right.  Many will bet in memorial of those that have passed.  Some select their horse based on a name, others a tip, some go for colours, some a number.  The Majors grandmother, passed away these many years, used to back greys, she just liked them.   

When those sweepstakes are unleashed in every office and workplace, it is a part of our history, our national identity flexing muscle, rolling on like the relentless river, moving, consistent, secure, reassuring. 

The race is insane.  The hardest fences on our island over four and a half miles, forty horses piling in to each other, the Chair, Beechers Brook.  We do not ignore the pain and the anguish, strained sinew, fallen horse and man.  No, we embrace it, with dignity, respectful of the battle in which no quarter is given.  Triumphant champion where are you.

Still need an inspiration, click and watch.  See if you agree with the Major, Red Rum might not have had his amazing hat-trick if Andy Pandy had just stood up at Beechers?  Equally a better jump from Church Town Boy two out… no what am I saying, watch it, incredible to think that off top weight putting so many out of the handicap and at the royal age of 12, he won his third national, a feat never to be repeated, on the bridle like a young fresh thing.

As well as those gambling tourists, who are all welcome; how wondrous it is to think that tomorrow many more might convert to our merry crew, the religion of the gambling gentlemen.  Thousands will read, form a view, enter the alien yet exotic turf accountant and be enticed, I welcome them, I envy them, oh to have it still to learn.  They will watch their chosen beast give its all, some of these new potential warriors will leave unmoved, they will fail to see the enlightenment, the annual spectacle will be missed on them, shame on them, they live blind, stumbling onwards and I ask the good lord to forgive them, he won’t.

Ah but those few, those others for whom a door opened.  They selected a horse who gave them a run, perhaps the winner, or maybe they are a real gentlemen and their animal went before Valentines, but they still felt something move inside them.  Something permanent happened, a re-wiring, they saw, they felt their heart race and their senses grew intense, for a moment they were lost.  They caught the disease, our glourious disease.  For surely it is best to live one life with the glory of Big Bucks glaring at Grand Crus a furlong and half from home nonchalant, dominant, playing with him; to see Ruby clap in his heels bury his head and for it to be put to bed in moments… surely it is better to have this a hand full of times in one lifetime than enjoy ten lifetimes without.

Men will journeytomorrow to this glorious rebirth, let us hope a magnificent days racing prevails.  The reassuring news is that only those that reawaken become devote followers of our religion, how we welcome them and they look at us level in the eye.  They know.  They felt it.

I believe it was Descartes who described lives as if we were sparks leaving a fire, as the spark moves from the hot core into the night air, it dims and eventually extinguishes, as children we are still glorious but soon in adulthood we come detached from the wonder that the young see.  Romance, wonder, joyousness, belief in the miraculous, as we move away from the fire, we become cold, desolate, we trust our senses and not our imaginations, our worlds become more sterile, we lose the magic.  Racing can reignite the flames, see the glory, young warrior.  Now mount that charger, to battle, to the sports.

Let us start with NAP of the day.

Binocular faces Peddlers Cross in the Aintree hurdle (2.50pm).

The pricing (9/4 Binocular, 13/8 Peddlers Cross) for the top two in the market reflects the fact that Bino is less certain to stay the trip than Peddlers who many think are crying out for it.  The Major urges caution. 

The price may also reflect have some of the concern backers would have regarding Binoculars absence from the Champion hurdle, again the Major urges caution.  He missed Cheltenham because some minor treatments he was given were still present in his blood and would have given him a positive sample for banned racing substances (you can use these treatments but they must have cleared the bloodstream by race day).  This means he has been rested up a bit.  Not neccesarily a bad thing.  Just three weeks and a day ago, Peddlers was chaing home Hurricane Fly gamely staying on giving his all up the Cheltenham hill.  Bino is fresh.

Bino is a bull of a horse and I always think I want a race in him.  That said, Henderson surely would have him fit for this just three weeks after his intended target.

I urge caution if you think he won’t stay.  The ground and flat track will help.  He is such a better hurdler than Peddlers.  He is a flat jumper, moving over his obstacles with speed and maximum efficiency.  I also think the lack of obvious pace will help.  I can only consider Oscar Dan Dan as the likely pace setter. 

Peddlers is surely going chasing.  The price seems to suggest this years Champion Hurdle was better than last.  I am not sure.  At 9/4 I suggest a reasonable stake on Binocular. 

1.45 Novice Hurdle

What a cracker.  Spirit Son re-opposes horses that were behind him at Cheltenham when he lost out to Al Ferof.  Recession Proof is one I feel will be better suited by the step up in trip.  The Quinn yard could be in better form, 11/1 is fair.

The Major prefers the chances of Rock on Ruby.  There was plenty to like about his head defeat to First Lieutenant and the previous defeat by 2l to Bobs Worth also now looks good following Bobs Worths win at the festival too.  Daryl Jacob who missed out on the Zarkander race this week may get his payday here.

Sam Winner is Ruby Walsh’s chosen mount and the way he stayed on from well back in the Triumph suggested further would be better.  I think this one might not be the easiest ride but he clearly has ability.

It comes down to the two Nicholls horses.  The Major goes for Sam Winner and a chance taken at 5/1.

Take a slice, add butter, allow it to melt slightly.

2.15 Maghull Novice Chase

I know connections of Classic Fly will get a kick out of a runner in this Grade 1 contest but surely it cannot be good – If he inconveniences a major candidate, it makes a mockery of his entry.  I just hope that Peter Toole keeps him out of the way.

Finians Rainbow looks good to the Major as he is the one of the top three in the betting which is more likely to give an assured round of jumping.  Both Ghizao who walked through a few at Cheltenham and Starluck who can be clumsy; look unsafe.  That said Finians hit the last at Cheltenham but to be fair by then he was on the stretch already with Captain Chris putting the race to the sword.

Overall, I would rate Finians a good bet.  4/5 Paddy Power might seem short, it is, but 4/6 is the Majors pricing.  4/5 is not stingy. 

The Bumper at Aintree

Steps to Freedom is the tentative 12/1 each way suggestion.  This interesting sort won well on bumper debut last summer in Ireland.  It probably was going to lose when it clipped heels with a rival in its second run.  A year on, who knows. 

Gallox Bridge at 50/1 is not the worst outsider I have ever seen.  OK nothing special has come from his sole bumper which he won at Fontwell but he did it nicely and it is hard to judge how good he is.

Laveroque is backable, particularly if Rock on Ruby performs well earlier in the day. 

Allure of Illusion at 7/1 is also a viable option being completely unexposed and of connections that are likely to know when they have a good one – Money would be significant.

Wondering why I have not provided a tip for the Grand National?  Follow the link to my post earlier in the week – Abor Supreme 20/1.

A note about betting on the National.  If you are the sort that is going to your local bookmakers to place the bet, please do so on the tote.  You will notice that on the Grand National, the prices for most of the field will contract horribly mid morning with bookmakers vociferously telling us about several ‘plunge horses’.  Nonsense, this is the bookies payday, they will try to operate an overround of 150%+, ouch.  Place your bet on the tote, you can do this at most bookies.  This is a 116% fixed overround and so you will get far better value.  Most are simply unaware and the bookies take advantage of the casual punters.   

To the sports fields…..

Just one bet.  Cardiff should win at Doncaster.  11/8 is quite a price given the gulf in class.  Throw in that Doncaster have not scored in their last three outings and well, it looks like a terrific bet.  Coral can take a beating on this one.

May your bets be blessed by the lord of debauchery who watches over us gamblers and rewards our free living spirit.

Why not taken Binocular and Cardiff in a tasty double?  Surely Jesus would?

Take your winnings and fly to Colombo.  Travel from Fort Railway Station, paying a few hundred rupees for a single up to Bandarawela in the hills.  It is cools and pretty.  Stay in the old colonial hotel, send the Major a postcard.

Saturday night, I suggest Indian food.  A tasty array of spiced curries, dhal, chapatis etc.  Eat with your fingers and entertain a sort where this will break the ice.  A classic looking sort but down to earth, smiles readily.  Be polite and expect little, you will gain more.  Drink beer with her too.  You will be gloriously spent from the days sports to entertain ‘le gallop’, no harm in being a gentleman for the night.

Messrs Redmond, Wiseman, Hobday, Reilly, Powell et al – Load the big guns people, we are through the looking glass.

Courage followers, shuffle the cards.

The Majors Saturday Service – 15th January Sports Tips | Five Star Kauto?

Good morning fair punters of Britain from Defford where the skies are still dark as I type these words on a momentous day for all racing fans.

Thats how we want it...... Kauto first, fresh air in second

The frozen conditions over Christmas meant that the traditional King George boxing day race was postponed.  Today, we find out if Kauto Star, the greatest chaser I have personally seen, can win a fifth King George.

The Major salutes all equine greats who take on such great challenge.  Anyone who enjoys racing cannot fail to admire Kauto Stars jumping style which is stag like.  Beautifully efficient, economic at times, flamboyant at others.  He clearly loves Kempton and seems to reserve a few of his magnificent leaps for the crowd there.  He can also hit a fence and is an occassional faller – Excitement is Kautos middle name. 

The Major has already posted his views on the outcome of the race – My ante post King George Tips piece suggested Riverside Theatre.  4/6 is probably the right price for Kauto but his Down Royal win on his seasonal reappearance was workmanlike and the Major just feels that the spark has gone a bit from Kauto – How I dearly want to be proved incorrect. 

I have such good memories.  The boxing day where the brother-in-law took up the Majors advice and fell in love with a horse who won the race while still heading out into country on lap 2.  The time he broke Nacarat who seemed to be travelling like a challenger.  The horrible fall when still learning in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.  Knuckling down to see off L’ami who was challenging as a featherweight.  Beating Imperial Commander by a nose.  The classic Denman v Kauto Gold Cup, watching it with my father and brother and being dissapointed.  The elation of him regaining his crown.  4 boxing day delights as he imperiously stamped his ownership on each race.  The first time I backed him, winning tidily up at Kelso. 

Kauto is special.  Stylish, superb, wonderfully french, charismatic and a winner.  What better partner for today than AP McCoy.  I would be the first to agree that I think Fehily or Walsh would have a more suited racing style for Kauto but AP feels an appropriate passenger for KAuto if he wins today.

Heart….. Kauto Star, Head…… Riverside Theatre each way, Pocket….. Mossley in Warwicks 2.45.

Let’s set about the day’s action.  Today the Major urges you once more through his Saturday sports tips service to bet like real men (and women as I was recently reminded… you know who you are!).  Bet with an amount that would make you blush if your mother asked.  Irresponsible gambling is the key to a long life of debauchery, fun and fulfillment.  At those final gates, at your final destination, what do you think St Peter wants to hear? … he wants to know that when the moment came, you were not found wanting, no not you; you dashing young blade, you set your mind on blood, glory and honour and charged alongside the Major into the theatre and turmoil of war, at full gallop, wearing your war face, chin proud, your sabre aloft and flashing with a streak of the enemies claret running down the edge.  Watch your shirt young man, your valet will have a ghastly time getting that out.

Let us see what goes at the races.

First things first, the tidy little hurdle at Warwick, which passed a precautionary 8am inspection, the 2.45 Leamington Novices Hurdle (Grade 2).  There is a previously tipped Major winner going in this, Mossley.  A nice little winner at Cheltenham, Henderson trained (Quote: he has plenty of pace and is unlikely to be inconvenienced by this drop in trip) – I agree with Henderson and think this horse makes a decent bet at 15/8 with Corals.  It is not a big stakes race as Saffran de Cotte could be much better on this surface  (I wouldn’t put anyone off at 25/1 with Corals, it is easy enough to put a line through his last time out performance), Jetnova could be a decent horse and Court in Motion on a strict line of form is a couple of pounds ahead of Mossley on the Majors reckoning.  However, I have liked the way Mossley goes about his races and 15/8 is a monster price.  Have a slice.  Remember though the Majors betting resolutions, don’t get too excited, it is a novice hurdle.

At 3.20 at Warwick, another handicap puzzle and this is one that I have spent a good 40 minutes on this morning.  There are many I like.  Officier de Reserve threatens to run a race one day.Companero is a fascinating runner and could be a big threat if Howard Johnson has him well prepped after a big break from racing.  Bobby Gee looks on the upgrade and Le Beau Bai in his penultimate race showed the requisite form and has a useful 7lb claimer in Jake Greenall.  A hugely interesting outsider for the Major is Noun de la Thinte.  This mare will not be inconvenienced by the ground and although has been below par this season, I suspect this ten year old still has a decent run to give.  It is 38/1 with Red32, 45/1 for those with a Betfair account.  Have an each way interest.

The Christmas Hurdle is a race (2.25 Kempton) which I think has been set up as the long term target for Starluck.    Starluck is no Binocular but Twiston-Davies will have been targeting this race.  I like horses set out for a race even when their bare form suggests they might not have the quality to take the spoils.  Make no mistake, this is Starlucks Champion Hurdle.  Binocular if on form will hammer him but Binocular is massive and famously difficult to get right.  That said, the advice is still Binocular who is available at 11/4 with both Hills and Coral.  He is the best horse in it and Henderson is 41% winners to runners in the last fortnight, have a piece of that!  Khyber Kim while a very good horse I think will need more than Kemptons flat 2 miles.  Binocular, Starluck to fight it out, Overturn to challenge the Khyber for third.

Now as previously highlighted, the Major brings you the big race analysis and also delves into the small print to find hidden gems.  I like the look of Dream of Fortune who goes in the 1.15 at Lingfield on the all weather.  Now, the bare recent form looks horrible and that is why 5/1 is so suspicious.  David Evans can ready a gamble and this is a horse that previously has won in claimers with the likes of Tom Queally on board.  Todays 7lb claimer takes the ride for a second time and racing of an effective featherweight, a win bet is advised and take it early.

Onto the sports fields of our great nation. 

The big premier league games all happen tomorrow.  I fancy Spurs to give Manchester United a decent game.  Surely, Ferguson will not play Neville against Bale!  Regardless, I feel 2/1 does not do free flowing Tottenham justice and Van der Vaart will relish the challenge, I see him arriving late into the box to open the scoring…

With such a poor run West Brom will be hoping the return of Tamaz at centre half will galvanise them at home to Blackpool.  I cannot trust them at odds on though to beat a Blackpool team who play without fear.  Odemwingie is a big miss for West Brom as is Ollson.  Sadly, I feel a tangerine bet brewing at a generous 15/4 with Stan James – Take a piece.

A bet I quite like is Man City v Wolves, nil nil at half time which is 12/5 with Victor Chandler.  Man City are 4/11 on to take this game and as short as 2/7 in places.  Now, they have invested again in this new big burly signing (Dzeko is 7/2 as first goalscorer) – Wolves though are not in free fall yet, they have organisation and determination.  They have taken wins from Liverpool and Chelsea lately.  Man City can be eye wateringly boring at times and a chance is taken that Wolves hold out to half time.

Wigan versus Fulham being played on a continous loop could be what Dante and his Divine Comedy had in mind for the tee totallers in the tenth circle of hell, if he had got that far. 

He looks less than happy - He would definitely have imprisoned Satan in the JJB

Wigan are not good but they do have threat.  Today N’Zogbia is back but Cleverley is out, as is Kirkland.  Fulham lose their best player in Schwarzer who is on Asian Cup duty with Australia.  Wigan have only won two of their last ten home games, Fulham just one win in ten away games.  Kamara could be a 7/1 each way first goalscorer bet with Bet365 who go one third odds and unlimited places giving a tidy profit as long as he nets at some point.  The Major though goes for 3 goals or more at 11/8 with Victor Chandler.  Both teams will be looking to win.

QPR as table topping Championship travellers to Burnley look value at 9/4 with Victor Chandler.  They might have had an interesting defeat at Blackburn with Diouf and Warnock embracing controversy as is their way, however, todays trip to Burnley is clearly an easier fixture and 9/4 is way too generous.  Load the big cannon.

There is an interesting long term bet to take an interest in which is with Ladbrokes.  They go 4/1 about West Ham getting the Olympic stadium.  This is a must bet.  I cannot see Spurs plan of removing the athletics facilities garnering enough favour.  Views are strongly opposed on this but West Ham 4/1 who have a long term interest and clearly stated ambition for the project are a great price.

Bristol Rovers make an OK bet too at 7/2 to win at Carlisle.  I suspect the Carlisle team are in a down turn after just one draw from their last three, which included a defeat at Torquay.  New signing Michalak from Leeds may strengthen the team but Rovers who are just 5 points behind, admittedly in the relegation zone, have found the net 4 times in their last two games – Not convincing but neither 7/2.

Norwich make a nice 13/10 home bet against Cardiff.  While the bluebirds are well fancied this year by the Major, they have a few hurdles to get over.  Firstly, Bellamy being arrested is not going to help.  Then the imminent sale of Boothroyd to Newcastle just gives a sense of instability at the club.  Why cash in on Boothroyd for £750k when the great prize of promotion is there, surely that’s worth risking losing him on a free in the summer?  This lack of ambition is obviously a result of a club in financial trouble. 

Palace can be backed at 11/2 with Victor Chandler at Swansea.  On the surface of things, Palace are a terrible bet, they are rubbish on the road and not much better at home.  They do not have the worst squad in the world and I can see them climbing out of trouble.  This bet is taken on the grounds that new manager and ex player Freedman can galvanise the team.

The Nap is …… Mossley at 15/8. 

May the enemy tremble as he sees you approach.  Remember to wager an amount that you would be embarrassed to admit to family.  Tonight, I think you should drink pastis before eating duck prepared in a traditional french country style with green peppercorn.  When the man removes your plate, insist on the manager bringing the bottle of his best brandy and joining you.  It would be crass to let him see the bankroll which is moving uncomfortably in your finely tailored pocket.  Thank him for his hospitality and tell him you are one of the Majors and we will return.