Tag Archives: vulcanite

Sunday Shots – A few Sunday Tips while I am in form… Worcester and Gowran Park – 50/1 shot in here!

Morning from the Major who writes relaxed from a bright Worcestershire scene.

Royal Ascot is over, the maelstrom complete.  I came out of yesterday remarkably well, despite only one winner in seven selections on the blog (Pique Sous adv 4/1), of the remaining 6, 4 placed, two at 8s and one at 22s – Those each way multiples added up nicely.

As such, feeling flush, I backed firstly Germany and then Bosnia with reckless abandon and managed to rip a good chunk out of the bank.

To complete the evening reckoning, My lucky 15 first goalscorer which started on Gotze (4s) had carried onto Dzeko (7/2) when his perfectly good goal was ruled out for offside.  I believe I swore.

To the Sunday Sports….

Worcester

Proper summer jumps at Worcester where the ground is good to firm.  The simple factors we want are…. Trainer form, Jockey Class and Ground.

In their second race like the favourite Dreamsoftheatre who is trading at a best price 9/4.  Jonjo is in decent nick, this Kings Theatre 6yo has shown an aptitude for decent ground and if getting a little quicker over the obstacles he should show enough to feature.

Yet, on these sorts of cards, it often does you well to take a chance and I am scrolling down the prices to 16/1 shot Mr Satco.  Sam Twiston Davies riding for Donald McCain, the horse has been off since his hurdling days and a lot of things need to come together but they might.

I can make a case for most runners in the 3.20 and would not rule out a bounce back to form for Gallox Bridge at 14s.  Best left alone.

Now in the 3.50 things are interesting and I feel like backing two.  Firstly the one that stands out near the head of affairs is Grey Blue at 10/3.  Henderson is still firing in winners and although he is against a less exposed rival, he is reliable.  However, I said I would back two and that is because of the presences of Secret Beau at 50/1 with Skybet.

It takes some imagination but stick with me.  On the negative side of the ledger, this horse has run 21 times on the flat, never further than a mile and outside of some decent efforts as a youngster, never with a lot of credit.  On breeding, it is no way a stayer either, being out of champion sprinter Sakhee’s Secret.  One effort over the timber at Stratford ended in a predictable heavy defeat.  I am not selling this to you am I?  The thing I would say is that the horse has done all of it’s best work on rattling ground and for connections to persist tells me either inspiration or idiocy is at play.  50/1… Come on this is Worcester!

John Spearing has another being backed in the 4.20 in Table Bluff, not for me but nice to see some confidence in their other runners when bagging a rank outsider.

The 4.50 is a cracking contest for the card and Vulcanite is an obvious place to start as he is clearly benefiting from the wind op which has seen him bounce back to form.  He would be my pick but the jockey change has not filled me with confidence and I shall look elsewhere.

Barizan is an old favourite and he looked much better on soft at Haydock last time, he is a feasible 8/1 shot back on firmer ground.  Yet he will be harassed on the sharp end so I say no.  One of those likely to be fighting up front with him is As I Am who I do prefer on the grounds of trainer form and the yards record at Worcester 4/9 in last two years.

Ballinalacken has some positives at a big 20/1 and Detroit Red although hammered by the handicapper for a Market Rasen win, is being backed again.

With lots of possible winners, I shall keep the interest reasonable but am siding with Bobowen who has a very patchy record, comes from the tiny Grand National winning stable of Dr Newland, has assistance from Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle and is adaptable to running tactics having won from the front, from chasing the leaders or from being held up.  Fingers crossed, Sam will see the obvious (that there are 3/4 willing to cut each others throats here) and settle him in, turn him off until the last three furlongs…. It is easy being a jockey!

Gowran Park

2.15 Adroit 5/4

4.15 Naoise 6/4

4.45 Port Merrion 11/10

5.15 Ebeyina 4/6

You don’t want explanations do you?  Yankee… Get yourself involved!

Courage, roll the dice.

Wednesday Tips – Catterick, Wexford and Hereford

Good evening from the Major who writes from a rural Worcestershire scene which is sharpened by a frosty and fresh wind.

I hate the elongated Christmas build up. For children, the sensation of Christmas is different – the build up, the anticipation. When you leave childish things behind though, The veneer of Christmas is removed and the pleasure comes from the simple basics.

The commercial pomp that comes with Christmas has always existed and while distasteful at is crassest, that is not the worst element to me.

No, far worse are those who spend 25% of their year celebrating Christmas. Grown adults who put up trees, shop and smile like maniacs. That scares me.

Today’s Plumpton and Towester tips were a bit mixed and generally poor. Disappointing but not disastrous. Wednesday has a couple of decent races over timber each side of the Irish Sea and I thought a few tips were in order.

Catterick Tips

The first handicap is wide open, ugly and I’m not sure I want to be heavily involved. Rear Admiral at 4/1 has had his confidence boosted having been back in winning points action but the step back into this class might be tough. Stagecoach Jasper is my runner up (5/1) but the tip is a chance on 16/1 Newdane Dancer. This one is returning from a year and a bit break but is still young and has the assistance of the excellent Lucy Alexander.

The juvenile looks more straightforward and I am a fan of the John Ferguson trained Ruacana and I hope 3/1 is about.

Team Reveley are in decent form and so I’ll take a chance on their chase debutante Reasonable Force (8/1).

The 2.50 looks a spot kick for Doyly Carte and 1/2 doesn’t put me off. The win last time out was bloodless.

Neither of the last two races make much of a betting prospect.

Hereford Tips – Wednesday

Charlie Longsden has a good Hereford strike rate and you know I am Noel Fehily greatest fan so Long Wave at 6/1 or better is my bet in the opener.

The second at Hereford is a race worthy of the entrance fee… Vulcanite versus Salden Licht – the former was a great novice hurdler last year while the latter has a line of form with Oscar Whiskey telling you he is a great horse. I take Vulcanite to do the business.

In the 2.10 I like Drumshambo for Venetia Williams but small stakes.

Barney Curley has sent one runner to Hereford in the last few years and it won. Giant Sequoia hasn’t the form but that doesn’t matter with this stable. I am chancing my arm that the gamble comes. Get in now.

Wexford Tips

In the opener, Venture Capital will be all the rage. His last race on heavy may have been bottomless but his bumper form is top class. Lines from that race taken literally mean he is a cut above this lot.

Mullins looks set to double up with the promising Tasiocht running in the second. There will be little love in that price though.

Friday Aintree Tips – includes a 25/1 Topham Tip

THIS IS THE 2012 POST, 2013 tips will be posted at midnight on Thursday on the home page.

2013 tips are now live.

Good evening from the Major who writes with tips for the fantastic Friday Aintree card.  The sheer quality of racing makes the heart skip a beat.

Finians was top class when seeing off Sizing Europe. This will suit…. load the large cannon

No joy from the three Aintree tips offered on Thursday.

To be fair, Crack Away Jack came in second at 50/1 after being highlighted as a possible improver.  Pearl Mix was a non runner but Grumeti’s win was a moral victory as the form lines were tied.  The other two selections fared poorly.

We need Fridays Aintree Tips to bring the Warchest for the weekend, let us review the action and see if we cannot find some opportunities to load the large cannon.

Aintree Top Novice Hurdle – 2pm

Darlan’s second in the Supreme Novices is rock solid form and to be fair, you could argue he was a little unlucky not to be the winner.

Prospect Wells was not that far behind that day but the Major is opting for a horse who finished even further behind in the Supreme… the tip is Vulcanite.

The selection is a general 10/1 shot and has been pulling very hard in his races.  If he settles I think he could be a classier act than yet shown over the obstacles as he was a decent flat horse.  Aintree is a flatter track, which I feel will suit his running style and help him settle as they will go quicker.  Now with more experience, I think there is a reasonable case to be made that Vulcanite could come improve past them all.

2.30 Mildmay Novice Chase

I can understand why the market has priced up Champion Court as favourite.  This horse likes to bowl  along and on a flat track and likely granted an easy lead, he could be hard to peg back.

Silviniaco Conti has some very good tied form with Bobs Worth who was an impressive Cheltenham winner.  Ruby opts to ride him too.

Neither of these market leaders are that convincing to the Major though who looks a little further down to find a golden nugget hiding away.

Join Together is the 11/2 tip (Stan James).  Ruby disagrees with me having chosen Silviniaco Conti over this stablemate but I think my selection has the greater form.  His last run at Cheltenham was a disappointment and I have to find a valid reason (the ground).

With a line through that run, my horse has given weight and a beating to Champion Court and has beaten subsequent Cheltenham winner Teaforthree.  Have a slice.

3.05 Melling Chase

The selection here is far more simple.  Finians Rainbow, a winner at Aintree last year and the reigning Champion Chaser, should have nothing to fear from this field and should be backed to the hilt at 11/8 with Stan James.

Albertas Run who has won the race in 2010, is now 11 and the newcomer looks more progressive.

The way Finians Rainbow finished up the Cheltenham hill suggested that 2m 4f around Aintree is well within reach.  The main danger in the Major’s eyes is Wishfull Thinking who I remain convinced has some big races to run.

Smash it up.

Topham Chase Tips

One of the trickiest contests to resolve is Thursdays Aintree Topham chase.  Tipping a winner in this is a tricky business indeed.

A couple of thoughts influence the tip, the ground is being watered and I think with a dry forecast, they are worried about it going ‘good’.  I am looking for good ground sorts and hope we don’t get that dead ground that throws up such odd results.

Secondly, there is a hugely strong Topham trend towards bottom of the handicap sorts.  Just one horse in the last twelve winners carried more than 11st and that was Gwanako.  In fact, since the turn of the century, seven winners carried 10st 4lbs or less.  To be fair, this does not rule out many as you often have a classy sort taking on unexposed players.

Peter Bowen is heavily represented again including the Topham hat-trick seeking Always Waining.  He will sure be popular again and will be in the best shape for this so has to be considered even at eleven.

Little Josh is now running off the same marks that got him a Paddy Power Gold Cup.  Liking to front run, conditions will suit so 11/1 Paddy Power is half decent.  However, 11st 4lbs on trends will be a burden.

The selection though is harder to justify than these.  Montoya’s Son has started to recover some form and the recent Newcastle show was OK.  It is not unrealistic to expect further improvement and 25/1 (Paddy Power) allows some room for that.  Many bookies are offering 5 places so do watch the terms.

4.15 Sefton Novices

When connections described Fingal Bay as the best they have had, the Major made a big mark in the book and left it there.  6/4 is very reasonable for a horse that has shown terrific form.

Having bypassed Cheltenham, Fingal bay turns up at Aintree fresher than many and if he has most of the form that his reputation suggests, then he should carry these before him.

For those that like a bigger price, Knock a Hand looks extremely progressive and could well take a place.

4.50 Handicap Hurdle

I have been through this card and cannot decide between two so am serving both up.

Bourne, I think, was unsuited last time and has plenty of potential left in what was a progressive profile before the festival.  9/1 is a win bet.

Like Minded is a 25/1 Paul Nicholls inmate who has not done much winning but would be closely matched with 14/1 Ataglance now on these revised terms.  Harry Derham has had a high profile winner for the yard this term and is well worth his claim.

The other big price horse that I considered is 25/1 shot Saphir River who did not give a decent run on British debut and has to prove some worth out of confusing French form.  It is notable though that there was a quarter of a million fee for the horse – Market support could be significant on second UK start.

The Bumper

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