Tag Archives: weapons amnesty

Fridays Racing Tips – Leopardstown Lexus Chase, Christmas Hurdle and Novice Chase – Load the cannons again my friends

Good evening from Worcestershire where the Major writes from the lounge. The good lady has joined me and while that scuppers the darts action, she compromised to ‘Escape to Victory’ so karmic forces remain balanced.

What a glorious day of betting for the Major. Winners were plastered all over yesterday’s blog. A double in Ireland and three from five at Kempton was a resounding success. Excellent but just shy of the mothership, it was close, as close as Bourne getting up on Dildar….. Aaahhhh the sweet sanguine feeling of loss.

Bad losers are awful gamblers, they get confused. Nothing is personal, if you need a refresher in how to lose, watch my favourite film , The Sting…. A sharp intake of breath, a tilt of the hat and as Kipling said, never breath a word about your loss.

Leopardstown on Friday completes a fantastic schedule of Christmas racing. Let us do battle once again, join me, I feel a final 2012 push, we shall take the ridge and repel the counter, we shall meet them man for man, with bayonets fixed. To Leopardstown.

Leopardstown Tips

I am going to start with tips for the Lexus. It is being run on heavy ground, which will be cut up but most in the field will enjoy it. What a race we have, we have all been waiting for it. Surely the Lexus Chase only concerns the first two in the market.

The highest profile horse I am ignoring is Tidal Bay. He was conceding 6lbs to Bobs Worth when providing a worthy challenge in the Hennessy but I think that was the extent of his abilities. He has been quirky in time and I am not convinced travel will be for him. That said, Ruby is in the seat and might choose to make the running as Tidal Bay will be best suited by a searching stitching stamina test. Turning twelve though and after a hard race last time, he is first of the main protagonists with a line through.

Midnight chase did once beat Tidal Bay but on this ground, I can’t see him landing a blow here.

So the front two…. Flemenstar leapt to the head of the Gold Cup market when serving up a beating to Sir Des Champs last time out. Peter Casey is a colourful owner and it will be good for the sport to see Flemenstar remain a top class horse winning good races.

This is over a further half mile which possibly plays for Sir Des Champs’s chances. When he lost to Flemenstar it was over arguably too short a trip and his seasonal debut and so it is fair to expect better from him.

Sir Des Champs is a two time festival winner and his RSA quarterbacked a decent betting Cheltenham for the Major. My heart is with him. He has an extra year on Flemenstar and I think he is an excellent prospect for the Gold Cup.

I am pretty convinced by the argument that Sir des Champs can reverse placings. Davy Russell was quite kind to him in the John Durkan, these conditions will play into his hands. This sthe start and the finish of the Majors search for a Lexus tip.

11/4 is available on Sir Des Champs and at that price, the Major is a big buyer.

Tips for the Christmas Hurdle

The 1.35 Christmas hurdle has a air of utter quality about it.

Zaidpour is installed as favourite after taking the Hattons Grace last time up but I am not sure of that race. It was a steadily run affair and not form I trust entirely. Monksland was pretty close to Zaidpour that day with Voler la Vedette back in third.

That mare is a wonderful horse and a bloody good yardstick so if I am wrong about the race then Zaidpour is damn good. He is a horse that was kept busy in the summer but not to much effect, his French raid was poor and I just find him hard to trust.

I like So Young, but if they insist on cutting out the pace with him then he won’t be winning this.

Weapons Amnesty was a mighty impressive winner of the RSA who has been plagued with injury. I had him earmarked as a Gold Cup sort prior to his extended spell on the mend list. Given he is returning to hurdles first, I expect this is an exploratory mission and we can expect more next time up. That said, he is receiving some handy weight off some of these due to the construct of the penalties.

When it comes down to it, probably the winner is one of the Hattons Grace finishers. Of them, Monksland appeals the most at 4/1. Zaidpour makes me nervous and I think my tip is more progressive and in receipt of an extra 2lbs and stepping up in distance, I am taking a slice.

2.25 Topaz Novice Chase

Goodness me there are some puzzles in here. Some excellent horses and this will be very informative.

Aupcharlie looks second of the Mullins string but could be anything after an impressive chase win with impeccable jumping.

Avrika Ligeonniere gave a good beating to Dedigout last time out and the former looks a top class novice, it is fair to say Mullins will know where he stands with Dedigout. Avrika went on to beat Benefficient in the Drinmore.

The main Mullins horse heads the market. Back In Focus looked a top class horse and another natural at the obstacles, clearly a that to all. 5/4 just seems a bit short, although he looks the likely winner.

Instead the Major is going to tip Tofino Bay at 10/1. The Troytown win was brave, particularly so as a novice. He is a less fashionable sort having taken the handicap route but I think the form is good. He is fine on soft and has a likeable attitude – have a slice.

Good luck tomorrow troops, courage… Roll those dice.

The Major On Sunday – Cheltenham Results are up – Carlisle Tips – Curragh Flat Season Starts

The Major has posted his Cheltenham results and they are bigger than expected.  Largely thanks to a couple of placed efforts on Friday and a non runner in Snap Tie, we scored a 60% profit on the week.

The flat is back! The Curragh kicks off today.

That is the past.  The Major is now in build up mood for 2012.

My best ante post bet for 2012 right now would be Weapons Amnesty to win the Gold Cup.  At 25/1 I think if he is fit, he could well be a major threat to Long Run whose 3/1 price is abourt fair.  Let us not forget Diamond Harry either whose Hennessy form would not have been enough to expect him to have beaten Long Run but certainly he is a chaser on the up.  If this year was sentimentally incredible because we could watch the two old timers brawling it out down the hill joined at the last by the young pretender who went on to claim his spot in history…… next year could be an almighty punch up between some great up and comers.  Will Time for Rupert come back to form (absence since December was probably the reason for his loss).  A question swirling in the Majors mind is whether Nicholls if bereft of a better option, will send Big Bucks for another pop over the bigger obstacles.

The Curragh – Flat Racing is Back!  Lodge Park 4.05pm

The sun is out, it is light when you leave work.  It is time to dust off the flat form book as the trainers of the big stables start playing their hands towards this years classic prizes.

Today we have some Group 3 action at the Curragh and the Major is willing to flex his muscle.

The Lodge Park goes off at 4.05 and is an all age mile event with 52k (Euros) for the winner. 

None of these have been running since last year and so the trick at this stage is to pick the trainers likely to get off to a flyer with a string of horses well prepped for their seasonal openers.

Often it helps to find a horse where winning the Lodge Park is the big target.

For the Major lines go through the entries of Banimpire (Ground), Mid Mon Lady (Not good first time up), Burn the Floor (Complete Outsider, shown nothing only start).

The remaining 6 are all running for trainers yet to unleash any runners.  This is with the exception of Enchanted Evening.  Dermot Weld has run three in the last fortnight all be it over hurdles and they have performed well, notably Unaccompanied at the festival. 

This one will handle conditions well and if she has progressed at all from 4 to 5 , she could go well. 

Gemstone could show a lot of improvement.  At just 5/1 though, this Galileo filly is too short, that one is for another day.

Enchanted Evening for the Major at 10/1.

The Irish Lincolnshire – 4.35pm, The Curragh

The Irish Lincolnshire has attracted a decent field of handicappers and one catches the Majors eye.

By all accounts, Steed for the Kevin Ryan team is a bit of a handful.  Since the stable applied the headgear though, the change in the horses fortunes has been significant.  14/1 but the Major thinks further improvement could be to come and it looks telling that Kevin Ryan has come across the Irish Sea to have a pop at this 36k contest.

Irish racing seems to carry much better prize money and it is has been noteworthy that more and more UK trainers are taking their chances in Ireland (or France) to steal decent prizes.

Hawkhill is of interest with the superb G F Carroll, he still has a 3lb claim but that will not last for long.  14/1 too, perhaps a saver.

Clearly the favourite Photo Opportunity has a great chance.  The Major takes experience to beat him in the hustle of this competitive field on only his third start.

4.30 Carlisles Betfair Novice Handicap Hurdle

Of all of the jumps racing on offer, Carlisles 4.30 is where the Major smells blood.

It is hard to believe that Carlisles course is still Heavy given the beautiful weather we are experiencing south of Birmingham!  IT just shows that it is cold up north.

Douglas Julian dodged a booking at the festival to keep in a sphere he can win in and at 10/3, this is a fair price indeed.  Particularly when you consider he is 3 from 3 in Heavy conditions and 1 from 1 in Soft. 

Paul Gallacher is terrific value for a 5lb claim which could be great benefit for What’s up Woody.  He is the only other horse that escapes a question about the ground.

Get stuck into Douglas Julian and thank me later.

The Big Game

Manchester City visit Stamford Bridge and neither team looked in inspired touch.  Chelsea have won the last two in the league.  Man City have an excellent recent record against Chelsea. 

All cannot be well in the Man City camp with the manager and the stroppy new striker Ballotelli having to be separated after going out of Europe in the week. 

The Major fancies a tight game.  Man City were happy to show little adventure at Arsenal when 0-0 sounds more exciting than the game itself. 

Less than 1.5 goals is 23/10 with Sportingbet and I am happy to sup from that cup.