Saturday Punting Heaven

My body is ravaged with a strong viral infection, this may be a cold.  However my mind is running amock with the prospects of getting my turf accountant over, bending him down, dropping his trousers and spanking his bottom red.   Last week saw a bit of a return to form for the major on the text service with two of my treble coming in including the nap.  This week, the two big races of the day at Glorious Goodwood are superb punting contests.  The stewards cup is exactly the type I promised myself not to bet in.  Late last night I had selected the winner, Evens and Odds, Dandy Nicholls trained, 45 on Betfair and very attracive.  This morning I read he is the Pricewise selection and so the early 33/1 will have gone by now.  Therefore may I suggest Noverre to Go at 14/1 with Paddy Power each way to 5 places – Easy!  The Nassau is a class line up and while Midday has all the qualities to win again, at the prices I think Strawberrydaquiri at 7/1 is marvelous – Have some of that big grey beauty.  I did fancy Sweet Clementine in the 2.45 at Newmarket but on relflection Aghadoe represents a lovely 6/1 with my favourite jockey Jimmy F up top.  Off track, St Helens should win their eggball league game vs Warrington so getting evens in receipt of a 4 point handicap is tasty business.  What the hell – The nap is 6/1 Aghadoe.  So set your weapons to stun, load the large cannon, call your man and ‘ Aghadoe do do, push pineapples, shake the tree’ all the way to steak dinner tonight!

How to Make Money at Haydock!

With a friend at the Haydock course (Stag do), I have taken my coffee to the back garden and armed with paper and laptop, hope to make some serious money.

Firstly the days nap.  Find a Stan James bookmaker and see if you can get the evens about Leeds +4 in their Rugby League clash with St Helens – Thats like printing money!

Next the racing.  One in my watch list runs today at Leicester – Applaude 5.20.  This horse really caught the eye when winning at Hamilton with plenty inhand and dissapointed next time out but I think it didn’t get the stamina stretch it needed.  I think it will turn out to be a lot better than the result last time out and anything above 7/1 is a great price.

The Haydock card plays like this for me:

2.15 Bet365 Handicap

There are some unexposed types in this, no more so than Anhar who has only seen a course three times and could be better – His win came on good to soft which is a concern but being out of Kingmambo, Im not overly concerned that the firm ground will put him off.  He may give Berling the most to do, especially with stable doing well with three year olds – The favourite though has the form in the book has won 2 from 4 on the ground and if anything like evens is available it makes a good bet.  His trainer has placed 8 from 17 runners in the last fortnight.

A word for the outsider in this – Kingdom of Munster has raced 6 times.  In one race (completely different conditions last year) he probably posted the best form any of these horses have while running for the Irish super stable Ballydoyle.  Now in new ownership, with top in form jockey Paul Hanagan up top (worth following today) if it is 33/1, well I have seen far worse outsiders!  It would not be a complete shock if the penny dropped and it came good one day.

Advice: Berling should win, as long as it is better than 4/5, I would take it as the best way to get the day started.  Anhar interesting as is Kingdom of Munster for value seekers.

2.50 Lancashire Oaks

This looks as open as the betting suggests, in fact I think it is a poor race for a Group 2.  There are plenty that will seek a lead and I think this race will go to a better horse that can come from off the pace.

Grace O Malley, Barshiba and Les Fazzani therefore fall into the ruled out category – I like their chances but think that this could be a messy race up front with lots of bumping, a more settled ride could win the day.

Champagnelifestyle out of Montjeu could yet turn into a better filly this year and I consider anything from 14s upwards decent value. 

Ladyjanedigby willd efinitely run a race and she will love conditions (won two placed a further time from 5 runs on good to firm ground).  Is she good enough? 

It is a tough race to call.  The best horses are likely to run prominently and it is easy to make a case for Barshiba or Les Fazzani but none of them stand out as head and shoulders above.

The two I settle on speculatively are:

Clowance – This horse may have grown into its frame more for this season – It has a 100% record at 1m.  The trainer is in great form 36% strike rate in the last 14 days.  Jamie Spencer is the ideal rider to switch Clowance off until the business end and we could take advantage of a feisty front end battle. 

The other of interest is 9/1 Tinaar.  Philip Makin has had one ride for this trainer in the last two years yet gets the ride on Tinaar.  It may have needed the reappearance run.

Advice: Clowance for me with a small saver on Tinaar.

3.25 Old Newton Cup

I spent about 45 minutes going round in circles trying to solve this race but am afraid kept coming back to a simple principle.  Find the horse laid out for it, on the improve and with a trainer in nice touch. 

As such, the favourite Hanoverian Baron is quite rightly so.  If you can get anything like the 11/2 available this morning, get stuck in, ew for those with little kahunas!  I like David Probert, he is a class jockey even without his claim. 

Submariner was my second choice along with The Fonz who, looking uncomfortable in front, ideally would only lead in the last 100 yards.  If Tinaar wins the last, it might be worth sticking with Makin on Thin Red Line who may well go on from previous runs.

Advice: Have a crack at the favourite who only just made the cut and as such looks a tasty proposition from the foot of the handicap.

4.00 Poker at Bet365 Handicap

The only question is whether Bated Breath is good enough to take this – I would say he is!  Richard Hughes up top, this one looks capable.  Anything above evens is a bargain.

Sorry to select a number of favourites but this one clearly looks a winner.  I would consider a double with Berling in the opener.

4.35 Conditions Stakes

Captain Dunne is a horse I like but I cannot see it being today for this one. 

My money will sit on Castles in the Air – Liked Haydock on sole appearance, firmer ground is a bonus. 

The two others I considered were Rileyskeepingfaith where double figure odds look wrong and Enderby Spirit.

5.10 Casino at Bet365

The market will tell you everything about Avertor.  Unfancied and flopped on this seasons debut but still fav for this on the back of a strong season… if the money is there, it will certainly be competitive.

Richard Hughes is an eye catching booking for Foxy Music.  The horse returned from a spell on the sidelines to surprise connections by winning on the last appearance.   

Taurus Twins is certain to try and lead and if it gets an easy run, it could certainly feature. 

Advice: On balance I think Foxy Music at 9/2 is an outstanding bet.

5.45 Financials at Bet365

If you are needing a winner at this stage, oh dear.

Yabtree looks likely and 3/1 is not bad. 

Arabian Spirit is interesting down in class and with a useful 7lb claimer on board, ideally softer conditions would make it of more interest.  Any rain and I would get stuck in.

Best of luck.