The Saturday Sermon – Tingle Creek Tips…… Plus 40/1 Tip Shabash!

Good morning from the Major who has been up early pondering the days sporting action. Defford is fine and cool with a dark slick ground from the overnight rain. The coffee has been bubbling away and the Major is ready to lay before you the sporting delights of the day.

If you have come seeking the Majors advice this morning, thank you. It has to be said that current form does not warrant your custom. The Major always remains free, barely-profitable and entirely unhinged and it is at times like these that I wonder why people still visit. I rely on your good grace.

In fact, if you are reading this at all; given my recent record; you are either a loyal friend, slightly insane, entertained, stupid or you have lottery fever (you have been following the Majors advice for some time and have an unshakable belief that one day, we will land the mothership). I admire the last group the most.

No white flash like his brother but Kauto Stone is as good looking and fizzing with potential

Faith is an interesting concept. Not to think something or to assess merit on evidence but to know it. There are many biblical quotes on faith but I prefer the words of the great 18th century french philosopher Francais-Marie Arouet – Like the Major he assumed a pen-name, Voltaire, there the comparisons stop. He said of faith…

It consists in believing what is beyond the power of reason to believe.

Could we land the mothership today? To the sports my faithful few…..

The Tingle Creek

I do love the Tingle Creek. A tough finish but Sandown favours speed merchants. Couple this with the stiff railway fences down the back straight that are tricky and close.

It is a true test of speed and accuracy and requires a brace jockey too. If you do not have your horse in a steady rhythm pinging those tricky back straight fences.. pop, pop, pop, pop…. it will be game over.

It is an intriguing renewal today and one that has the bookmakers competing again hard for our stakes. I do love it when the enemy is forced into such generous tactics.

The winner for the Major is Sportingbet.com. For stakes placed through their online facility (check it may just be the app), they are refunding losing bets to Sizing Europe and providing a 15% bonus on winning stakes…. simply superb.

There seem to be three main protagonists in the race.

Sizing Europe is over from Ireland to show the class of his Champion Chase win remains this season. He will not mind conditions and is an accurate taker of the fences but the Major is not convinced he will win this today, Champion Chase winners have a mixed to poor record. I am also not certain he was the best Champion Chase winner we will have seen.

Kauto Stone has a big task. Nicholls clearly the world of the half brother to the mightier Kauto. He needs rain though desperately. Two miles will be on the sharp side. Although his half brother managed it (twice – legend), Stone will need to be top class too as he is surely going to be better over staying trips in the future.

Many are also pointing to the fact that Kauto Stone was the number two stable choice and Tataniano would have been his first selection. The Major is less sure, I read Nicholls comments as saying that the two horses have different preferences on ground and so both were in the race at the early declarations to give the trainer choice. The fact that Tataniano is out for the season is now irrelevant if Kauto Stone gets enough toe into the ground as he would have been number one choice in soft conditions anyway.

It is also interesting to see Wishfull Thinking stepping back in trip and not up in trip. After disappointing hugely in the Paddy Power, the horse was reported to be heavy on the chest. I think this horse has threatened top class but there are things to prove, well-being and speed being the main two.

There are your choices. I suggest a bet on Kauto Stone. I was hoping for a little more than 7/2 but that price reflects the trainers vice like grip on the Tingle Creek and the horses illustrious relative. For the Major, I remain unconvinced by the class of Sizing Europe and Wishfull Thinking has a few questions to answer too. While Kauto beat little in Ireland, his Down Royal run was flawless. Have a slice. Do your rain dance.

1.25 Sandown – Pertemps Qualifier

At 25/1, the price of a night in the pub could pay for Christmas on my selection in the handicap hurdle.

On Borrowed Wings carries one of my favourite jockeys, Noel Fehily gets an unusual right for the stable who have a great record for their few Sandown runners. I think his comeback run can get a line through is and I believe this horse to be way better than the dismissive 40/1 that Stan James have priced him up at, have a slice.

Poungach could be absolutely anything but this will not be the main target so I am happy to get involved with On Borrowed Wings at monster prices.

2.30 Listed Handicap Hurdle

Another at a price for you from the Major.

To Paddy Power and Ladbrokes for their 10/1 pricing of Tenor Nivernais who the Major believes may finally come good and show us the potential that connections clearly think he has.

The Fred Winter run at the festival was clearly not what was expected as the money that day suggested a bigger performance. On reappearance, the horse dissapointed again but the Major is going to stick with it.

Mister No at 16/1 is also immeasurable, who knows what his french form is all about. It is nice to see our Gallic friends coming to have a pop at our big races as we do theirs, good luck to connections.

Get stuck in to Tenor Nivernais though, I have a feeling the money will come again and you know how good the Majors nose is for a gamble.

3.20 Aintree – The Grand Sefton

The selection in the Grand Sefton is Linnel. The stable definitely do not go on fishing expeditions, particularly across the Irish Sea and so I read potential in this horse as absolute.

7/1 is the best you can get but it is still worth a few of your hard earned golden coins.

Finally – 12.00 Aintree Maiden Hurdle

Keys is very tempting here at 11/8 and I suggest a slice.

Keys gave me and a few friends a thrilling win at Cheltenham in the New Years Day bumper as we waited first to hear he had the photo call over Cinders and Ashes (re-opposes) and then to make sure he kept it in the stewards room (he did).

I thought he truly had the measure over a pushed out Cinders and Ashes that day and I think 11/8 is tremendous value in that context.

If you do not like backing shorter priced good things, take on Ile de Ray who for me is incredible value at 9s. Apart from Keys, I would rate his the best flat horse in the field and if he takes to jumping…. could go very well.

If you were after a tip for the Becher, my money will be staked on Nicto de Beauchene.

To the sports fields of our great nation….

Two teams to back this weekend. I think Swansea are priced well enough at 5/2 to have a slice at Blackburn. I also think the 5/4 that Liverpool win at Fulham on Monday is like finding money in the street!

Why not double up Keys and Liverpool to give a very tasty £100 return to a £20.

Tonight I hope you dine well in a good restaurant where the wine flows, the misty effect of the grog sedates the senses and you are left with a contentment that only a donkey choking wedge of used notes and a flaxen haired lustrous sort sat opposite can provide. Shabash! Tip well.

Courage, roll those dice.

Friday Racing Selections

Some more tasty racing tomorrow at Ascot and York and the Major has lined up another raid on the enemy to fund a weekend of debauchery.

Yesterdays double did not quite come off for the Major but thankfully, due to writing the post late and in a rush, the poor wording led a couple of followers to pick the winning double.  Essentially I was leaning slightly towards Wallis from Gladys Gal and this is how the Major wagered.  It was not clear though and a couple of followers sent me thanks as they had gone for Gladys!

3.55 Ascot – John Guest Handicap

The listed race that precedes this is impossible to solve, with little form on the soft ground, I instead skipped it for the handicap.  As a class 2, it is attracting some decent sorts and I think there is a juicy priced outsider worthy of a few quid.

There is a red hot favourite in Keys at 5/4 and I have to say that it is a fantastically interesting horse.  It won by a nose a bumper at Cheltenham last year in a race where Paddy Brennan dogedly refused to get it off the bridle.  Whether he thought the horse had a temperament problem I do not know but it caused a horrible wait for me and a few others as we waited for the photo which we felt was good.  We celebrated when it went our way, then had a horrible 15 minute wait following the ping pong announcement of the stewards enquiry!  Result eventually stood!

Keys won well last weekend at Newbury and is due to go up the best part of a stone and so being sent out again unpenalised quickly, he has to be a danger.

That said there is a danger that another 2 mile race (in untested soft) within a week might take a little toil.

The Major fancies another… at 14/1.

That horse is Dayia who goes for Linda Pearce.  This is the first time Fallon has ridden for Pearce and that is an advert in itself but the fact that the horse has gone plenty well enough on Good to Soft and the fact that in the Majors book, it does not have that much to find, I score this a great each way bet.

4.30pm Ascot Charity Handicap

There are two in here that catch the eye.

The first is 22/1 Pipette.  On old form this one should be capable of going close under the excellent Jimmy Fortune.  A year off has been followed by some pretty poor runs but this trainer knows how to nurse one back and a return to form would not be too much of a shock.  I think the soft ground might be the key to returning Pipette to some form – It might be worth a saver!

The second and the selection is Oceanway for Mark Johnstone.  Lately the winner of two races, this three year old is heading up the handicap but gets a handy 10lb weight for age allowance in this class 2.  5/1 is fair, if he gets his head in front in the last furlong, it will be hard to pass this one.

7.30 York EBF Stakes

Sajhaa is all the rage at evens as I type which is no suprise given his Group 2 performance at York where Midday sent this filly down by 2 lengths.  That form is solid but I think she is beatable.  I think the ground is the only doubt.  She is out of Kings Best and they like it more rattling.  The word soft in the description might give us a chance to get something else in.

Contradense is looking to be well placed by Cumani in this stakes event.  Not quite up to scratch in recent group efforts but neither disgraced, the Major is never keen on sorts that struggle to get their head in front.

Ceiledh House is doubtful which is a shame as it was interesting.  Wrekin Sunset will go in off a big price one day too.

Bottom line is that Sajhaa should take this and evens is plenty.  If you cannot beat them, join them.

Tidy Treble that, 14/1, 5/1 and evens.

Pandora’s Box is open – Champion Chase Cheltenham Tips

BOOOOOMMMMMMMMM!

The Major is off to a flyer on the opening day. 

That said, understanding followers appreciate that it was wonderful watching my nap get beaten by Hurricane Fly, Peddlers Cross ran a race and in the Majors view if Peddlers had held a greater lead, Hurricane would have reeled him in anyway, breathtaking.

If you fall low, like Lazarus, then awake my child, Lazarus started lowly and yet finished canonised - In the same way let us re-birth

We had winners though.  Reve de Sivola was a decent place, losing to the highlighted Bensalem.  9/1 Divers was the result of the day.

Day one was a firecracker of emotion.  Electricity crackled.  The fly made it good to be a racing man.  Drink was served.  Food delivered.  The Major held his own.

To all those whose day one battle was fruitless.  Well I say to thee that Lazarus started as a beggar and finished a saint.  The Major has not stooped so low, yet we shall raise ourselves higher still.

Get that harness on young man, ensure your preparation is complete.  We are engaged in the melee  The danger is to go to the front too soon.  With too much excitement you might exclude consideration, if in this mood, you find are rash and in over-optimism peak early……… well then draw breath, be still and settle thyself.  The battle dictates that you shall ready your stamina.

The Majors followers know this is right, this is a four day conflict.  There will be some warm work at the gate, a little skirmish perhaps, be prepared.

To Champion Chase day, have courage and shuffle the cards

First of all I offer you no advice for the opener simply because the Major refuses to truck with witchcraft.  If a beady eyed hobgoblin should stop thee and challenge, simply say ‘BESHABAR – Now get behind me SATAN’ – Does that constitute advice, probably, I shall count it as an each way bet.

The Neptune

In the second, Oscars Well needs a bigger trip, leaving Rock on Ruby and So Young for the Major.

So Young has been dismissive of the opposition in Ireland. Very impressive and a price to match.

On a strict line of form with Megastar, Minella Class holds Rock on Ruby – I support that. Both of them are held?

The one that appeals most on faster ground is Tornado Bob.  All of the form is on ‘probable’ unsuitable ground.  12/1 – Stick it in the microwave, let your taste buds explode when it goes ping!

RSA Chase

This is simple.  Time for Rupert is a quality animal that the Major has ignored before at a cost.  That said it is without a run this year.

Mullins knows that Mikael D’Haguenet has always been a champion of something in the making.  The Major thinks it is the RSA chase.  Ruby, on a high, surely he can get Mikael D’Haguenet into the rhythm that his trainer thinks could win a major event. 10/1 KABBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMM!!!!

Champion Chase

OK Masterminded looks back to form.  However do you think his thin margin defeat of Somersby adds up to more that a Big Zeb defeat to Golden Silver?

The Major reckons that on times Big Zeb was the master.  On strictly the clock, Masterminded has something to find.

A tentative 3/1 is advised in the understanding that the Major would gladly tear up his ticket to see that stag like Masterminded leap at the last as he puts the field to bed.

Head – Big Zeb, heart – Masterminded.  3/1.

Coral Cup

The Coral Cup is always a challenge.  The Major has settled on Call the Police – Mullins and Walsh have an improver on their hands that the Major feels is able to take this, 6/1 WHAAAAMMMMMM!.

Fred Winter

The Major has been puzzling over the Fred Winter for some time.  The bottom line is that Whitby Jack is 12/1 and too damn intriguing!

The Lucky Last – The Bumper

Wow what a bumper – The Major fancied Keys but in the absence of the flat trained specialist, surely Cheltenian stands a better than 12/1 chance on a track going left-handed?  Dickie in the saddle – BOOM.

Good luck warriors, suffer thy losses well at the setting of the sun, tis only a while until daybreak, then we see the enemies eye, deep, dark, unmoving. Have vigour, be relentless.  Then peace, sleep, it is right.  Till dawn awakens the soul once more.

2011 Off to a Flyer – Sunday Bets

2011 got off to a flyer.  An overall 44% profit from taking the early prices at Cheltenham – Marvelous. Full table below…

Firstly two outsider Sunday bets for you.

Vila to beat Chelsea is not a 14/1 bet.  OK Chelsea resumed winning ways last time out against Bolton but only managed to score once and were hardly convincing.  Malouda, Kalou and Drogba look a little off their best and the door is open to Villa who while given a drubbing 4-0 out last time by Man City have enough threat and organisation to be a least a consideration.  14/1 they are not and so William Hill is worth a tickle.

On track, the highlight of the day is a terrific novice hurdle at Naas.  Bishopsfurze goes off as 6/4 favourite – Mullins is in top form and so I can understand the favouritism but really I cannot separate many of them and so value is sought.  While De Bromhead has not had a winner in his last 14 runners, I do like the chances of Sizing Mexico.  This one has a 100% strike rate on any going with the word HEAVY in it and I take that as a big plus today.  I particularly liked the way it picked up when joined last time out at Thurles showing a pleasing attitude to the job.  7s is available with Paddy Power, take it as a win bet – The great thing with PP is that is the price drifts you get the bigger price…. nice.

The Major intends to keep a running total of his bets in 2011 – The target is 120% of stake, lets see how we do!

Finally – The Major had one of those golden moments in racing yesterday at Cheltenham.  Having made a small loss betting with my brother and a friend, we went into the last deciding a bit of ‘caution to the wind’ was required.  Keys was the Major selection and we got stuck into the bumper like desperate souls.  When Keys and Cinders and Ashes flashed past the line, the Major suggested that we may have had it on the nod.  When the photo was announced in our favour, general joy broke out!  60 seconds later, PING PONG STEWARDS ENQUIRY!! There was some hustling approaching the final furlong and given the short head winning margin, no-one could be sure it wouldn’t be turned over.  Fifteen anxious minutes followed in which the Major suggested that due to the length of time being taken, the result would be amended.  Thank the lord when PING PONG ‘the results of the stewards enquiry, the placings remain unaltered!’ sweet words! The thrill is what racing is about.

On a final final note.  What a sad sight to see the loss of Joe Lively.  The Major backed Joe some years ago when he was a tasty 12/1 winner at Cheltenham at the October meeting.  On the day, Legspinner also won the Cesarewitch which had been put up by the late Sir Clement Freud.  It was a golden day for the Major and I followed Joe to further wins.  Never quite top class but a Gold Cup outsider, Joe always gave his best and although small was a tidy jumper and had a terrific spirit.  It was tragic to see him flounder so graphically and suddenly in front of the Cheltenham stand.  This equally is what our great sport is about.

Cheltenham Bets	Result
On His Own	£0.00
Oscar Whisky	£5.00
Maljimar	£0.00
Sway	£0.00
Caroles Legacy	£0.00
Junior 12/1 ew	£2.00
Keys	£5.00
Football Bets
Oxford to win	£0.00
West Ham to win	£2.38
4+ goals at West Ham	£0.00
Racing Profit	71.00%
Football Profit	-21.00%
Overall Profit	44.00%

Happy 2011 – The Majors Betting Resolutions for the Year

The Majors New Years Betting Resolutions are as follows:

1. Bet with small stakes in the following…….. nurseries, novice hurdles and novice chases – Inexperience scuppers the most carefully laid out plans!

2. Don’t persist with football trends for too long, stop backing the value team when they hit their bad patch and stop backing first goalscorers when the odds tighten and the enemy realises the error.  Be quicker to change your mind and stop pouring good money after bad.

3. Sign up for every online betting acount.  One of the Majors advantages is being able to take the best prices available.  This means lots of accounts and not accepting 11/8 when 13/8 is available.  The profit is in the margins.

4. Discipline, discipline, discipline.  2011 is a year in which the Major is determined to make a profit.  This means not following up the carefully calculated placed horse at 6/1 that returned a modest result with a lumpy bet on an odds on favourite to boost the funds.  Remain disciplined – Never chase a loss.

5. Treat  victory like defeat.  One of the great gambling lessons is that defeat teaches you everything but you learn nothing from a win.  Every bet this year, the Major resolves to analyse the result as if it were a loss.  when you win fortunately you never question the logic, every loss you consider more carefully.

6. Stand by your opinion – Being in a accuarte minority is a good place to be as a gambling gentlemen.

7. Only use useful trends.  Far too often you can be drawn into meaningless statistics that seem to offer a terrific bet.  Football bogey teams are a classic example – So what if Blackburn have not won at Wigan for 15 years – What could that possibly mean to Wigan v Blackburn today.  However, horses with no course form at Bath, Chester or Southwell, get an immediate line through them – Of every trend first ask is it a false stat or a genuine influence. 

8. Research, research, research – The key to ourperforming the betting market is research.  On the football fields, who is playing, who is injured, who will take the penalties – On track, think course form, race trends, age, jockey, jockey trainer strikerate, going, breeding, distance, trainer % first time out and a lot more!  Do not skimp on the time spent reading.

9. Don’t back poor football teams to be nil nil at half time – They are a big price because they concede!  Instead look for organised mid table outfits to hold top of the table teams until half time.

10. Relentlessly Positive – The Majors main resolution is to remain utterly positive in the face of a bad run.

Good luck to all of you!