Monthly Archives: August 2009

More Shame on The Major – Ades Spider Senses

The Major continues to hang his head in shame after another losing round of selections.

Ades NAP yesterday which I was too bury to post went in at 6/4 and he has another relative shortie today: Casino Night 3.40 AYR – Currently trading at 3.95.

The Ayr race is pretty much the best on offer today which says something about the general quality on offer.  I oppose the selection with the better priced Faithful Rider.  This horse is unexposed on turf but has decent enough form anyway.  The claim of Frederick Tylicki’s 3lb is useful as he is excellent value for it.  Currently competing for the apprentice riders championship, Tylicki is neck and neck with David Probert who himself shared the title last year.  I would fancy Tylicki to get it and think his leading supplier of rides, Fahey may be more powerful than Proberts Balding backers.

Currently trading at 6.8, The Major thinks faithful ruler may upset the Ade jolly.

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Chevalier Bubble Bursts – Ades Thursday Selections

Well Monsieur Chevaliers bubble burst a bit yesterday.  Ades lucky 15 paid though, the non runner aside, he had a winner, a place and a 30%+ profit.  Todays selections are:

 2.50 York – Mirrored
 
6.55 Epsom – Violent Velocity
 
7.05 Chepstow – Indian Art

Ades Lucky 15 – Monsieur Chevalier

Ade has selected four for a lucky fifteen today:

3.40 Hamilton – Talk of Saafend – Approx 8/1
4.50 Hamilton – Herrara – Approx 6/1
2.50 York – Monseiur Chevallier – Approx 7/4
3.25 York – Warringah – Approx 9/1

It is on one of these horses that I am concentrating.  Monsieur Chevalier.

This blog, courtesy of ade, has tipped up Chevalier before and you have to say since that run he has gone to impress more.  Today we will find out if he is genuine class as he faces the toughest assignment yet.  There is a question over whether he will handle the step up in trip but looking at his smooth style and the way he hasn’t shown signs of stopping yet, I would say he would.

Having said that the way he has progressed has been super impressive.  I am a little concerned that the horse has seen a lot of racing, today will be his eighth appearance in a long season for a two year old.  However, his explosive turn of foot really catches the eye and part out of romance and part logic, I am following him in today!

More losing bets for the Major lately and the profit on the blog is down to just £64 with £61 gone since the start of the month.  MC can help me out!

Advice: Back Monsieur Chevalier £20 3.2 WIN

Another Quick Ade Tip

Kassuta 6.50 Yarmouth

Currently 5.9 on BF – Jamie Spencer rides.

A winner at last!

After a long barren period, which had diminished the blogs profitability to under £70, at last we found a winner in the shape of 7.4 Amhjar – Hoorah.

I am determined to buld on that success.  First of all, this week is the York Ebor meeting which is excellent stuff.  I was dissapointed though to see that the sheer task of facing Sea the Stars has put so many quality horses off.  Only 5 are now due at post for tomorrows Juddmonte and I find this astonishing.  Prize money for 5th is £16,000, second pays a six figure sum, surely some more quality could come to oppose.

O’Brien saddles three of Sea the Stars opponenents and two look like pace makers.  I cannot see pacemakers helping – I suggested this tactic might get STS beaten in the Derby – read here – how wrong I was that day.  Over this ideal looking trip for STS, I am sure the horse will prefer a couple of pace setters in the five to make it a proper race.  I would have thought the better tactic would be to try and make the race tactical.  Maybe O’Brien has something like that in mind and we will see how he plays his cards tomorrow.  Everyone seems to think STS is unbeatable and that 3/1 Mastercraftsmen is probably not as good as Fame and Glory and Rip Van Winkle who STS has seen off so far.  This could also start to explain the lack of runners – Are there stud reputations at stake?  Seems unlikely to me but why not run decent types in a race like this? 

Monday racing often throws up some sorry looking contests and the best race today is on the all weather either at Kempton 3.30pm or Wolves at 3.15pm.  The Wolves race is more intruiging so here we go:

There is an odds on favourite here and I am going to oppose!  Prescription is currently trading at 1.79 and I think it is awful value.  The racing post tipster and journalist, Winstanley, thinks it is a maximum bet! 

Yes the horse looks the best on paper but odds on in a stronger race with more runners and pitfalls than last time, no thanks!  It is also drawn on the outside.  I have this as a 9/4 shot so the 8/11 must be strongly opposed in my view – This could be expensive – I also think a small lay of the place at 1.19 could be rewarding.

The market is 9/1 bar and the two I fancy out of the pack are Something and Mutamared. 

Something is something of an AW 7f specialist but comes from the sprint king stable of Nicholls.  He certainly knows what it takes to win this and I would expect a big run.  ou cannot overlook the fact that this horse is THREE FROM THREE on the all weather.  Very interesting at 10.5 / 2.6

Mutamared is an old hand at this at the age of nine and is a horse that has shown plenty of class in his day.   The horse has not shown as much form on turf this summer and he last few runs on all weather were not quite as good either so we have to go back to February for his last win which completed an impressive five timer.  His last run was his first time out for 8 weeks and he would have been entitled to it.  This is more competitive but my spidey senses are telling me that Kevin Ryan will have it ready and Neil Callan is one of my favourites.  Overpriced at 23 / 4.1.

EGGSN IN A BASKET ADVICE

The advice today is risky!  By offering the lay and betting on another in the same race I am doubling my liabilities with a big chance of backfiring.  I just cannot help it though – When you feel strongly that the price is wrong, you have to oppose and ‘bet like men’.

Advice: WIN MARKET –  Lay Prescription for £20 at 1.79 back Something at 10.5 and Mutamared at 23 with £8

PLACE MARKET – Lay Prescription for £35 at 1.2 back Something and Mutamared at 2.6 and 4.3 at £15 and £10 respectively.

Today Ade fancies Rocket Rob in the 6.35 at Windsor.  By this stage I could be stinging because my selections in an open field performed poorly and prescription hosed up!  So I shall have a tenner on too at 3.75.  It might be a loss mitigater but fingers crossed form is returning for the Major.